Putin’s Victory Day ceasefire offer underscores Russia’s panic from Ukrainian drones

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a two-day ceasefire in the war with Ukraine on 8-9 May to coincide with Victory Day commemorations marking the 81st anniversary of the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany. Yet the announcement, issued through the Defence Ministry, arrives against a well-documented pattern of Russia routinely violating short-term truces, while the Russian capital grapples with visible panic over intensified Ukrainian long-range drone strikes.

The Defence Ministry said Russian forces would observe the pause to protect Victory Day events but warned that any Ukrainian attempt to disrupt celebrations would trigger a “retaliatory, massive missile attack on the centre of Kyiv.” It added that Moscow had previously refrained from such strikes “on humanitarian grounds” and urged civilians and foreign diplomats in Kyiv to evacuate.

In Moscow, authorities have begun installing anti-drone nets over critical infrastructure sites and key locations, including preparations around Red Square ahead of the scaled-back Victory Day events.

It is good when a Ukrainian drone flies 1,800 km and hits a long-range detection radar (missile attack warning).
And here's another example of the effectiveness of our drones – in Moscow, they began to install anti-drone nets over critical infrastructure objects. There are many… pic.twitter.com/Rj1JpYzO0r
— EMPR.media (@EuromaidanPR) May 28, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking after the European Political Community summit in Armenia, swiftly dismissed the proposal as “not serious” and announced Ukraine’s own unilateral “regime of silence” starting at midnight on the night of 5-6 May. “Human life is incomparably more valuable than the ‘celebration’ of any anniversary,” he wrote on Telegram, noting that Russia had ignored Kyiv’s repeated calls for a genuine, lasting ceasefire.

The offer comes just weeks after both sides accused each other of massive violations during a 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce in April. Ukraine’s military logged nearly 7,700 Russian breaches – including thousands of drone and artillery strikes – while Russia claimed nearly 2,000 Ukrainian violations. That episode was only the latest in a long history: since 2014, Moscow has broken multiple ceasefire agreements, from the Minsk protocols to holiday pauses, with Zelenskiy citing at least 25 major violations by early 2025 alone.

Compounding the sense of Russian vulnerability, Ukraine has dramatically escalated deep strikes on Russian territory, particularly targeting oil infrastructure and the capital itself. On Monday, a Ukrainian drone slammed into a high-rise building in central Moscow – just miles from the Kremlin – while Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported 14 more drones intercepted in a single 14-hour period.

The Kremlin has responded by scaling back its traditional Victory Day parade, stripping it of the heavy military hardware that usually rolls across Red Square. Zelenskyy noted the irony: “It will be the first time in many, many years they cannot afford military equipment and they fear drones may buzz over Red Square. This is telling.”

As the rival ceasefire announcements play out, reports from European intelligence sources and Russian insiders describe an increasingly isolated Vladimir Putin spending weeks at a time in fortified underground bunkers – primarily in the Krasnodar region – over fears of assassination by drone or an internal coup. Security protocols around the president have been sharply tightened, with staff under surveillance and public appearances curtailed, reflecting mounting Kremlin anxiety amid the wave of Ukrainian strikes and battlefield setbacks.

Caption: In Moscow, authorities have begun installing anti-drone nets over critical infrastructure sites and key locations, including preparations around Red Square ahead of the scaled-back Victory Day events. [@EuromiadanPR on X]