Putin, Trump, and the game of chicken

If a nuclear war erupts, we won’t have time to dissect why we let it happen. Now is the moment to assess the risks.

A nuclear conflict could ignite from something small, spiralling rapidly out of control. The recent airspace violations are precisely that kind of spark.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly pleased with the fallout from these provocations: first, drones breaching Polish airspace on 9-10 September, followed days later by fighter jets violating Estonian airspace on 19 September.

US President Donald Trump’s reaction? Virtually nothing.

After the Estonian incident, he delayed commenting for hours, finally stating on September 19, “It could be big trouble.” He promised a briefing and updates but has yet to deliver. After the Polish drone incursion, Trump posted cryptically on Truth Social: “Here we go!” This phrase has left European security experts, diplomats, and analysts puzzled, embodying Trump’s signature mix of bravado, sarcasm, and strategic ambiguity – traits that confound allies and adversaries alike. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski remarked on X: “Putin laughs at Trump’s peace efforts- ‘Here we go!’ might mean ‘time to get serious,’ but we need actions, not tweets.” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called it “cryptic and unhelpful; we need clarity, not memes, amid real risks.”

Moreover, Trump echoed Russia’s narrative that the Polish drone incident was a “mistake.” The Russian Foreign Ministry claimed the 19-23 drones veered off course due to Ukrainian electronic warfare, lacking the range to target Poland intentionally. Belarus supported this, blaming Ukrainian jamming. Trump reinforced this view, stating: “I think it could have been a mistake. These things happen- drones go off course, systems fail. We’re looking into it, but it’s not like they’re bombing Warsaw. We’ll talk to Poland, great allies, and figure out what’s what. I don’t want anyone jumping to conclusions.”

Regarding the Estonian violation, Russia’s Defence Ministry denied any incursion, describing the MiG-31 jets’ flight as a “scheduled” mission from Karelia to Kaliningrad over “neutral waters of the Baltic Sea,” in compliance with international rules. This stance implicitly challenges NATO’s airspace boundaries, particularly the narrow 10-km corridor between Estonia and Finland that Russia is expected to respect.

Russia’s apparent use of its own airspace maps, disregarding NATO’s delimitation, signals further tensions ahead. Estonia and Russia have longstanding territorial disputes, particularly over Baltic islands and overlapping territorial waters in the Gulf of Finland. If NATO and Russia cannot agree on national versus international airspace, the risk of miscalculation grows dangerously high.

Putin doesn’t test the West’s reactions. He tests Trump. And Trump’s silence grants Putin a free hand to escalate. Putin likely has no desire for nuclear war – he’s too afraid to die – but he’s eager to play a high-stakes game of chicken, betting NATO will flinch first.

If NATO backs down, especially under Trump’s equivocal leadership, Putin secures a historic victory. A retreating NATO could spell the end of the alliance as we know it.

Yet NATO’s response to the Estonian incident remains unclear. The alliance should unequivocally state it will issue warnings and, if necessary, shoot down Russian military aircraft violating Baltic NATO states’ airspace.

It hasn’t.

In the meantime, we brace for the next provocation.

Caption: The ‘Felon Don’ Trump chicken in an inflatable jail artwork by artist Taran Brar is displayed at Place des Nations in front of the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, 25 July 2025. EPA/SALVATORE DI NOLFI