Putin projects: accusing Ukraine of assassination plot betrays his own against Zelenskyy

In the shadowy world of Kremlin disinformation, accusations often serve as a mirror to Moscow’s own sinister plans. The latest salvo – Russia’s baseless claim that Ukraine launched a drone attack on Vladimir Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region – reeks of this classic tactic.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s assertion of a 91-drone assault, conveniently thwarted without evidence or casualties, came hot on the heels of productive talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago. Zelenskyy dismissed it as a “complete fabrication,” suggesting it’s a pretext for Russian strikes on Kyiv’s government buildings.

But beneath the bluster lies a darker implication: by projecting assassination plots onto Ukraine, Putin may be signalling his intent to eliminate Zelenskyy himself, a move that would decapitate Ukrainian leadership and force a capitulation in the ongoing war.

This isn’t mere paranoia; it’s a well-documented pattern in Russian statecraft, where the Kremlin accuses adversaries of the very crimes it is plotting or committing. Psychologists call it projection, but in geopolitics, it’s a tool for preemptive justification and psychological warfare. Take the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the buildup, Russian propaganda relentlessly accused Kyiv of orchestrating “genocide” against Russian-speakers in Donbas, complete with fabricated videos of staged explosions, corpses, and mourning actors. U.S. intelligence pre-bunked these as Kremlin-orchestrated false flags designed to manufacture a casus belli. Yet, it was Russian forces that proceeded to raze predominantly Russian-speaking cities like Mariupol, killing thousands in what independent investigations labelled as war crimes.

The “genocide” narrative not only justified the invasion but obscured Moscow’s own atrocities, turning the accuser into the perpetrator.

Historical precedents abound, illustrating how such projections mask Russian aggression. In 2018, the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the UK with Novichok nerve agent prompted absurd Kremlin denials and counter-accusations blaming British intelligence or even the victims themselves. Evidence traced the attack to Russian GRU agents, but Moscow’s transparent lies – mocking the West while intimidating defectors- served to project culpability outward.

Similarly, the 2020 poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny saw the Kremlin accuse Germany of fabricating the incident, despite lab confirmations of Novichok. Navalny’s eventual death in prison in 2024 only amplified suspicions of state-sanctioned elimination. And in Ukraine, Russia’s repeated claims of U.S.-backed “biolabs” developing weapons – echoing similar unfounded accusations against labs in Georgia and Kazakhstan – diverted attention from Moscow’s own violations of biological weapons conventions.

These examples illustrate a playbook: accuse first to inoculate against exposure, then act with impunity.

In the context of the current peace push, these drone allegations take on ominous significance. Putin has long viewed Zelenskyy as a personal obstacle – a leader who has rallied global support against Russian aggression. By fabricating an attempt on his own life, the Kremlin not only disrupts Trump’s mediation efforts but potentially lays groundwork for a retaliatory strike on Zelenskyy.

Putin’s visceral hatred of Zelenskyy stems from the stark contrast in leadership under fire: while the Ukrainian president demonstrates raw courage—most recently visiting troops on the frontline amid relentless Russian assaults, sharing risks with soldiers in exposed positions—the Russian leader cowers in fortified bunkers, isolated from the war he unleashed and shielded from any personal danger.

Zelenskyy’s daring appearance in Kupiansk on 12 December – where he stood defiantly in front of the town’s sign and addressed troops – directly exposed and shattered a major Russian propaganda lie, forcing the Kremlin to quietly admit that its forces had not captured the strategically vital hub in Kharkiv region, despite weeks of triumphant claims to the contrary. That was a big blow to Putin.

Recall how, before the invasion, Russia branded Ukraine a “Nazi” regime despite Zelenskyy’s Jewish heritage, while Russian units like the Wagner Group – linked to neo-Nazi elements – committed documented massacres in Bucha. This projection dehumanizes the target, making assassination politically palatable at home. With peace talks teetering on territorial concessions in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, in the Kremlin’s plan eliminating Zelenskyy should help install a puppet regime, fulfilling Putin’s imperial ambitions without negotiation.

Ultimately, these unfounded accusations expose the fragility of Russia’s position. As battlefield gains stall and Western resolve holds firm, Putin’s resort to disinformation betrays desperation. For Zelenskyy and Ukraine, the message is clear: vigilance against not just missiles, but the Kremlin’s hall of mirrors, where every finger pointed outward conceals a dagger aimed at the heart of Ukrainian sovereignty. If history is any guide, the West must treat these claims not as noise, but as a warning of lethal intent.

Caption: Zelenskyy’s daring appearance in Kupiansk on 12 December – where he stood defiantly in front of the town’s sign and addressed troops – directly exposed and shattered a major Russian propaganda lie. [Public domain]