EditPresidential election in Republika Srpska: Dodik clings to power through proxy
Siniša Karan, a long-time close associate of Dodik, is widely expected to implement policies dictated by his political patron
Preliminary results of the presidential election in Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina show that the ruling coalition’s candidate, Siniša Karan, has narrowly won – or rather, that real power remains firmly in the hands of Milorad Dodik, leader of the entity’s dominant party, for at least another year.
Karan, a long-time close associate of Dodik, is widely expected to implement policies dictated by his political patron.
Disputed results
According to the Central election commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 99.72% of votes counted, Siniša Karan of Dodik’s Alliance of independent social democrats (SNSD) received 217,638 votes (50.31%), while opposition candidate Branko Blanuša, backed by the Serb democratic party (SDS) and other opposition groups, garnered 209,207 votes (48.36%) – a margin of just over 8,400 votes.
A coalition of non-governmental organizations, Under the Magnifying Glass, which monitored the 23 November elections, stated that it was still too early to declare a definitive winner.
While authorities insist that 63-year-old Karan is the undisputed new president and that the result is final, the opposition claims Blanuša is the true victor. The SDS has demanded repeats of voting in Doboj, Zvornik, and Laktaši, alleging widespread electoral fraud in those municipalities – the same locations repeatedly accused of manipulation in previous cycles to boost SNSD candidates.
Dodik, however, declared the election over and ruled out any repeat voting in the three towns.
Doboj has become notorious after every election in Republika Srpska – local or general, as the last electoral unit to report results, almost always delivering a massive advantage to the ruling party’s candidate.
In the 2020 local elections, courts confirmed systematic fraud in Doboj, including votes cast in the names of deceased persons or those who did not vote. Although fraud was proven, no polling station officials were held accountable. The opposition insists the same methods were used again on 23 November in Doboj, Zvornik, and Laktaši, and has threatened legal action.
Dodik’s policy shift
Regardless of the outcome of potential lawsuits, the 23 November vote has raised serious questions. First: does Karan’s razor-thin margin – if officially confirmed, signal the beginning of the end for Dodik’s long dominance? Second: can the fragmented opposition, which rallied behind political outsider Blanuša, finally unite and prepare seriously for the general elections scheduled for October 2026?
Dodik himself will be barred from running in 2026 following a final court ruling banning him from public office for six years. Moreover, under a U.S.-brokered de-escalation plan, he is no longer permitted to pursue radical steps such as blocking state-level judicial and police institutions in Republika Srpska or holding a secession referendum, despite hints in that direction on election night.
“Now instead of one Dodik, they will have two,” he declared, suggesting Karan would continue his agenda. Most analysts believe such a campaign is no longer feasible. Had Dodik retained the political strength to push secession, he would not have accepted the court ban, agreed to extraordinary presidential elections, withdrawn controversial laws previously struck down by the Constitutional Court and annulled by High representative Christian Schmidt (whom Banja Luka authorities dismiss as an “unelected foreigner”), or made concessions to have U.S. sanctions lifted from himself, his family, and close associates.
These compromises have significantly damaged SNSD’s standing among hardline supporters who believed Dodik’s promises of independence.
A victory that feels like defeat
Analysts note that Dodik’s political retreat contributed to a record-low turnout – the lowest since the 1992–1995 war. Of 1,264,364 eligible voters, only 440,486 (34.84%) cast ballots. Many disillusioned former SNSD supporters stayed home, as did voters opposed to Dodik but who see no credible alternative in the deeply divided opposition.
The opposition remains fractured. Within the SDS, one faction favors an independent “autochthonous” policy, while another seeks close alignment with Belgrade. Banja Luka mayor Draško Stanivuković has launched a new movement, Strength of Srpska, aiming to sideline smaller opposition parties and position himself as the leading presidential contender in 2026. He is unlikely to gain support from Jelena Trivić’s People’s Front or Nebojša Vukanović’s List for Justice and Order, both of whom are locked in open rivalry with him.
Against this backdrop, Blanuša’s near-victory is widely regarded as remarkable. He won in traditional SNSD strongholds, including Prijedor, Ugljevik, Novi Grad, and Prnjavor, as well as in Banja Luka (opposition-leaning since 2018). In Trebinje, Karan’s margin was a mere 500 votes — the party’s weakest performance there ever.
Many analysts view the result as a clear setback for Dodik, especially given the vast administrative resources, biased coverage by public broadcaster RTRS, and institutional advantages enjoyed by the ruling coalition. Some argue that under genuinely fair conditions, the opposition would have won outright.
Dodik’s loyal operative
If Karan’s victory is confirmed, Dodik will continue to rule Republika Srpska from behind the scenes until 2026. The new president is seen as little more than a puppet – a dynamic evident on election night when Dodik spoke for 15 minutes before briefly yielding the floor to Karan, who delivered a string of clichés praising his mentor and vowing to continue the same policies.
Karan, who graduated from the Faculty of Political Sciences in Sarajevo in 1985 and later earned advanced degrees in law in Banja Luka, has been a loyal Dodik ally for decades. In political circles, he is regarded as a capable but unquestioning apparatchik, once describing himself as someone “born to serve the state.”
He spent years handling internal affairs and constitutional issues for Dodik, chaired the commission that organized the controversial 2016 referendum on Republika Srpska Day (held despite a Constitutional Court ban), and is a prominent denier of the Srebrenica genocide. Karan was briefly blacklisted by the United States in January 2025 on suspicion of preparing secession but was removed from the list as part of the de-escalation deal.
A career police official before and after the war, he later served as security adviser and secretary general in the president’s office (2008–2019), secretary general of the government (2019–2022), and interior minister before his current role as minister for scientific and technological development and higher education.
For Dodik, the presidency itself has always been secondary to control of the strongest party. With Karan in office, little is expected to change.
A longer version of this article by EUalive’ partner BETA can be found here.
Separatist candidate wins presidential vote in Bosnia’s Serb region as opponent cries foul
Caption: Sinisa Karan (L), the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) candidate for President of Republika Srpska, listens to party leader Milorad Dodik (R), following the announcement of the first exit poll results in Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 23 November 2025. Addressing supporters, Karan claimed an early victory in the race to become the entity’s new president. EPA/NIDAL SALJIC
Updated: November 27, 2025 - 10:40
