EditPoland’s presidential race heats up as Nawrocki visits the White House
The election is expected to greatly impact on Poland's role in the EU
In a display of political manoeuvring, Karol Nawrocki, the nationalist historian backed by Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, stood among the crowd at the White House’s National Day of Prayer, rubbing shoulders with global leaders. Meanwhile, his rival, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, rallied with Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the Polish seaside town of Sopot.
As Poland’s presidential election looms on 18 May, with a potential run-off on 1 June, this transatlantic contrast underscores a high-stakes battle that will shape the nation’s future, from its EU ties to its pivotal role in supporting Ukraine.
Poland’s next president will succeed Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally barred from running again after two terms, in a vote that will determine whether Tusk’s pro-European Civic Coalition (KO) can advance its reform agenda or face obstruction from a PiS-aligned head of state.
A key NATO member bordering Ukraine and Russia, Poland channels 95% of Western military aid to Ukraine, hosts 10,000 U.S. troops, and plans to spend nearly 5% of its GDP on defence in 2025, by far the highest in NATO. The election’s outcome is expected to greatly influence domestic policies, EU relations, and Poland’s geopolitical stance.
“This election is hugely important,” says political analyst Marcin Zaborowski. “[Tusk ally] Trzaskowski is the only candidate that is pro-European, an Atlanticist, and supportive of Ukraine. He represents continuity in foreign policy”.
The race centres on Rafał Trzaskowski (KO) and Karol Nawrocki (PiS-backed). Trzaskowski, the 53-year-old Warsaw mayor and former EU Affairs Minister, narrowly lost to Duda in 2020. His centrist, pro-EU platform emphasizes economic progress, unity, and judicial reforms to unlock EU funds frozen during the PiS rule.
He has shifted to the right on migration, proposing welfare restrictions for unemployed Ukrainian refugees, to appeal to the conservative electorate. Despite this, he enjoys 98% support among KO voters and leads first-round polls with 31–41%
Nawrocki, a 41-year-old conservative historian and head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), campaigns as an independent under the slogan “Poland First, Poles First.” He is running as an independent candidate due to legal restrictions that prohibit the IPN leader from being a member of a political party or engaging in activities incompatible with the duties of the office.
With no government experience, he focuses on patriotism, Christian values, and opposition to EU policies like the Green Deal, while stirring anti-Ukrainian sentiment and aligning with Donald Trump, as illustrated by his attendance at the National Day of Prayer at the White House on 1 May.
Nawrocki polls at 25–32%, with 98% PiS voter support and 50% from Confederation voters, but scandals involving him do not appear to have significantly impacted his poll numbers. The Confederation Liberty and Independence in Poland is a far-right political alliance advocating economic liberalism, Polish nationalism, social conservatism, and a hardline stance against the EU and immigration, while appealing primarily to young male voters in rural and small-town areas.
Other candidates include Sławomir Mentzen (Confederation), a far-right figure polling at 12–16% with growing youth appeal via TikTok, advocating ultra-low taxes and anti-immigration policies, potentially splitting the right-wing vote.
Szymon Hołownia (Poland 2050), a centrist Sejm Speaker, polls at 5–9% and may back Trzaskowski in a run-off, while Magdalena Biejat (New Left) at 2–3% could draw left-leaning votes from Trzaskowski.
Polls project Trzaskowski winning a run-off with 46–52% against Nawrocki’s 34–41%, though one outlier poll suggests Nawrocki could edge out with 51% if Confederation voters rally behind him. Up to 17% of undecided voters and upcoming debates could sway the outcome.
PiS supporters claim Nawrocki is closing the gap, citing internal polls, while KO backers highlight Trzaskowski’s 71%-win probability on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users bet on the outcomes of events like elections or sports. Polymarket is illegal in Poland due to its lack of a required gambling license, as designated by the Ministry of Finance.
A Trzaskowski victory would end the presidential veto, enabling Tusk’s judicial reforms, strengthening EU ties, and bolstering Poland’s EU Council presidency in 2025.
On the other hand, a Nawrocki win would preserve PiS’s influence currently embodied by the incumbent president, block reforms, and align Poland with nationalist movements, potentially straining EU relations.
The election is a referendum on Tusk’s government versus PiS’s legacy, with profound implications for Poland’s future in Europe and beyond. The results could have reverberations far beyond Warsaw.
Sources: AP, Reuters, Euronews, BBC, PolandDaily24, X posts, Euractiv, European Pravda, edited by p.p.p.
Caption: Karol Nawrocki, president of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) and candidate in the 2025 presidential election, attends an election convention organized by his electoral staff at the EXPO hall in Lodz, Poland, 27 April 2025. [EPA-EFE/MARIAN ZUBRZYCKI]
Updated: May 2, 2025 - 11:36
