Poland warns: Putin likely to test NATO with “accidental“ strikes

Russia could launch “hybrid drone and missile strikes” against Poland and other NATO countries supporting Ukraine while portraying them as accidents, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on Thursday, citing intelligence assessments.

Addressing parliament, Tusk said such attacks could form part of a Russian effort to test NATO’s resolve and create uncertainty over whether the alliance would invoke Article 5, under which an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all.

“According to intelligence assessments, Russia’s plan… includes hybrid drone and missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland,” Tusk said.

“These possibilities have been discussed for some time, but the information is now highly consistent and, unfortunately, convincing,” he added.

The Polish PM said this was the scenario he considered most likely in the coming months, although it was not the only possible outcome. He did not identify the intelligence services behind the assessment.

A week earlier he said he had received a detailed report directly from CIA Director John Ratcliffe on possible developments in the coming months. The Polish prime minister did not say whether Thursday’s warning was based on that report.

Jets scrambled, air alerts issued

Tusk’s warning came amid a series of Russian drone strikes close to Ukraine’s border with Poland in recent days. Polish fighter jets were scrambled on Thursday after a jet-powered Russian drone approached the border during an attack on western Ukraine.

The drone crashed or was shot down about 4 kilometres from Poland, according to preliminary information from the Polish military.

Tusk said a petrol station near the Yahodyn-Dorohusk border crossing appeared to have been targeted and that a “massive explosion” had been reported. Poland’s military said there had been no violation of Polish airspace.

Air raid sirens sounded in parts of eastern Poland, while flights at Lublin and Rzeszów airports were temporarily suspended as Polish military aircraft operated in the area.

The incident followed Russian drone strikes in the same border area on Sunday. One drone hit the locomotive of a Kyiv-Warsaw passenger train about 2 kilometres from Poland, while another struck a petrol station near the Yahodyn-Dorohusk crossing.

Strikes disguised as accidents

Tusk told parliament that the recent attacks close to Poland’s border were causing “particular concern” and said the public had a right to know what the most likely scenario for the coming months would be.

“I want to present the public with the most likely scenario for the next few months, because it is one that envisages serious events and requires focus, seriousness and the mental readiness to face difficult tests,” he said.

As part of that scenario, Tusk said Russia could deliberately send drones or missiles into NATO countries while presenting the incidents as accidental, creating uncertainty over whether they amounted to acts of aggression.

“In short, there is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank and even cause damage, while the official narrative would be that it was an accident,” he said.

Tusk said the aim would be to weaken NATO members’ willingness to respond collectively and demonstrate that Article 5 existed “only in theory rather than in practice”.

War entering “most critical” phase

Tusk also warned that late autumn and winter would be “the most critical period” of Russia’s war against Ukraine so far, with Moscow adopting a strategy aimed at destroying the country’s economy and logistics “on the largest possible scale”.

Poland, a key state on NATO’s eastern flank and one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies, has remained on heightened alert throughout Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Nearly 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace during a large-scale attack on Ukraine in September 2025. Polish and allied aircraft shot down several of them, marking the first time NATO forces had opened fire on Russian targets since the start of the full-scale war.

In July, a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile breached Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine and crashed in a field in eastern Poland, around 80 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. No casualties were reported, but the missile, which Polish officials said was carrying a “significant amount” of explosives, left a crater about 10 metres wide.

The latest incident occured in the morning of 13 September, when a Russian UAV hit the locomotive of the Kyiv–Warsaw passenger train at 2 kilometres from the Polish border.

Russian drone hits Kyiv–Warsaw train two kilometres from Poland

Sources: TVP, BGNES

Caption: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speaks during the official christening and launch of the multi-role frigate ORP Wicher at the Naval Shipyard in Gdynia, northern Poland, 12 August 2026. The warship is the first vessel constructed under the nation’s ‘Miecznik’ (Swordsman) naval program, which envisions building three multi-role frigates for Polish Navy. EPA/ANDRZEJ JACKOWSKI