EditPipeline to sovereignty: How Bosnia and Herzegovina is dismantling its Russian gas dependency
The leadership of Republika Srpska opposed the project as it favoured an alternative route via Serbia, preserving reliance on Gazprom supplies
Bosnia and Herzegovina prepares to link its gas system to Croatia’s LNG terminal on the island of Krk, a move that would end decades of near-total reliance on Russia’s Gazprom and significantly reduce Moscow’s political leverage in the country.
The moves marks a significant milestone. While most EU member states scrambled to slash Russian gas imports following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) remained a regional outlier. Long tethered to Gazprom via the TurkStream route, Sarajevo discovered that energy dependence was rapidly becoming a blunt instrument of political leverage.
The tide, however, is turning. The proposed Southern Interconnection – a 160-kilometre pipeline known as the Southern Interconnection- would connect the country to the LNG terminal on Croatia’s island of Krk. The project promises to recalibrate the geopolitical balance in the Western Balkans and could offer a model for other Russian-dependent states, including Hungary and Slovakia.
Historically, Bosnia’s reliance on Moscow was absolute. Despite modest annual consumption of 200-300 million cubic metres (mcm), which is a tiny fraction of Germany’s pre-crisis 90 billion cubic metres, but the economic stakes for a country with a $24 billion GDP are considerable.
All imports came from Gazprom via TurkStream and the Serbian transmission network under long-term contracts indexed to oil prices. When global energy prices surged in 2021-2022, regional gas prices rose accordingly.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe dramatically shifted policy. The share of Russian gas in EU imports fell from more than 40% in 2021 to below 15% by 2023–2024. Poland, Bulgaria and the Baltic states diversified supplies rapidly. Bosnia and Herzegovina, however, remained almost uniquely tied to Moscow. Gas became not only a source of heating but also an instrument of influence.
The Southern Interconnection did not emerge overnight. As early as 2019, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) launched a tender for technical advisory services for a Bosnia – Croatia interconnector designed to diversify supply routes and enable access to liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Krk.
The project gained new relevance in January 2021, when the Krk LNG terminal entered operation with an initial capacity of 2.6 bcm annually. By 2023, capacity had increased to 2.9 bcm, while an expansion project – worth more than €180 million – foresees 6.1 bcm per year.
Initial investment estimates for the Bosnian interconnector ranged between €100-120 million. After 2022, construction inflation, rising steel prices, logistics costs and route refinements raised projections to €140 – 200 million. Western Balkans Investment Framework documentation now includes full construction financing, including compressor stations and security systems.
For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the pipeline would provide access to a market far exceeding domestic demand and integrate the country into European gas trading systems rather than bilateral political arrangements.
Political battle over energy
The main driving force behind the project has been the government of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the state gas operator BH-Gas, which since 2018 has promoted the interconnection as a route to alternative supplies.
The United States has played a visible role. U.S. officials have repeatedly emphasised energy diversification as a security issue, while U.S. Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina Michael Murphy openly supported the adoption of enabling legislation. Private investors, including AAFAS Infrastructure & Energy, have also signalled readiness to participate.
From the EU perspective, the interconnector aligns with the REPowerEU strategy aimed at ending dependence on Russian gas before 2027.
A comparable precedent exists: the Greece-Bulgaria interconnector (IGB), launched in 2022 at a cost of roughly €240 million, allowed Sofia to replace Russian pipeline gas.
Opposition to the project has largely come from Bosnia’s separatist entity, Republika Srpska. Its leadership favoured an alternative route via Serbia, effectively preserving reliance on Russian gas, arguing that this would be cheaper and make use of existing infrastructure.
In practice, the dispute centred on control. Gazprom’s monopoly ensured predictable political influence, and Russian gas retains symbolic importance in a region where the Kremlin has maintained an energy presence for decades.
Legislative procedures were repeatedly blocked over questions of the future operator, the competencies of the entities and investor rights. The conflict was less about a pipeline and more about the country’s strategic direction.
A regional precedent
The Krk terminal is now becoming part of Bosnia’s future energy infrastructure. Its planned expansion to 6.1 bcm per year effectively turns Croatia into a regional gas hub for Central and South-Eastern Europe.
For Bosnia and Herzegovina, this means integration into a global market where prices are set at trading hubs such as the Dutch TTF rather than through politically negotiated bilateral contracts – a transition from dependency to competition.
Financially, the project is modest; politically, it dismantles a decades-long monopoly. If implemented, Bosnia and Herzegovina will join the growing list of European countries that have eliminated structural energy dependence on Moscow. Access to LNG via Krk shows that even politically complex and relatively small states can integrate into global energy markets.
Consequently, the argument that Russian gas has “no alternative” weakens not only in the Balkans. For countries such as Slovakia and Hungary, the Bosnian case suggests that geography is not decisive – political will and investment in diversification are.
The article by EUalive’s partner European Pravda in Ukrainian can be found here.
Caption: The LNG Terminal in Omišalj on the island of Krk [lng.hr]
Updated: February 19, 2026 - 06:55
