EditOrbán’s electoral strategy: Crafting Ukraine as the new national enemy
The Hungarian strongman masters the art of uniting voters against perceived threats, real or fabricated
In Hungary’s cities, from Budapest’s bustling streets to Debrecen’s quieter squares, a striking visual campaign has taken hold. Posters and billboards plaster the image of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, often foregrounded against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European People’s Party leader Manfred Weber.
To an uninformed visitor, these might suggest admiration for Ukraine’s leader. Yet, these displays are anything but friendly. They are the centerpiece of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s calculated strategy to vilify Ukraine, casting it as an existential threat to Hungary’s sovereignty and prosperity.
This tactic mirrors Orbán’s past playbook, where he turned figures like George Soros into national bogeymen to rally his electorate. As Hungary approaches its pivotal 2026 elections, Orbán’s demonization of Ukraine signals a dangerous escalation in his populist arsenal, with profound implications for both Hungary and Ukraine’s European aspirations.
Orbán’s political career has long thrived on the creation of enemies. Since returning to power in 2010, he has mastered the art of uniting voters against perceived threats, real or fabricated. In the early 2010s, Hungary’s socialist predecessors bore the brunt of his attacks, blamed for economic woes. When that narrative waned, Orbán turned to external foes. George Soros, the Hungarian-born philanthropist, became a recurring villain, portrayed as a shadowy globalist orchestrating migration and liberal values to undermine Hungarian identity. Campaigns vilifying Soros—complete with posters, state media tirades, and legislative crackdowns on his Open Society Foundations—cemented Orbán’s image as a defender of the nation. Migrants, the European Commission, and “Brussels elites” have also played the antagonist in his rhetoric, each tailored to stoke fear and nationalist fervor. Now, with the 2026 elections looming and his Fidesz party facing its first credible challenge in over a decade, Orbán has selected Ukraine as his latest and most perilous target.
The anti-Ukraine campaign is pervasive and meticulously orchestrated. Across Hungary, posters bearing the slogan “We will not let them decide for us” link Zelensky and EU leaders to a narrative of foreign interference. State-controlled media, including Orbán’s weekly radio program Good Morning, Hungary!, amplify this message, blaming Ukraine’s EU ambitions for Hungary’s economic stagnation.
On 2 May, Orbán declared that EU aid to Ukraine – allegedly siphoned from Hungarian pockets – was bankrupting the nation. He went further, framing Ukraine’s potential EU membership as an apocalyptic threat, warning it would saddle Hungary with unpayable debts for generations. “Ukraine’s membership in the European Union will bankrupt the Hungarian economy,” he insisted, claiming that Western powers like Germany and France support Kyiv to exploit its markets, leaving Hungary to foot the bill. These claims, economically dubious, gain traction through relentless repetition in a media landscape increasingly dominated by Orbán’s allies.
This vilification echoes Orbán’s Soros campaigns but is uniquely dangerous. Like Soros, Ukraine is portrayed as an external force threatening Hungary’s survival, but the stakes are higher. Soros was a symbolic figure, a distant billionaire whose influence could be exaggerated without immediate geopolitical fallout. Ukraine, a neighboring nation in a brutal war, is a far more tangible and emotive target. Orbán’s rhetoric paints Ukraine not just as a policy misstep but as a civilizational danger, accusing it of destabilizing Hungary through its European integration. His so-called “national consultations” – manipulative surveys designed to yield anti-Ukraine results – further entrench this narrative. Questions like “Will you support Ukraine’s EU accession, which will destroy Hungary’s economy?” ensure a foregone conclusion, with past consultations consistently delivering over 95% support for Orbán’s positions. These are not democratic exercises but propaganda tools, funded by the state to shape public perception.
Orbán’s choice of Ukraine as his enemy is driven by political desperation. For the first time since 2010, his grip on power is shaky. The opposition Tisa party, led by Péter Magyar, poses a credible threat, buoyed by independent media like RTL and online portals that resist Orbán’s control. With corruption scandals and economic woes eroding his base, Orbán faces the prospect of electoral defeat, which could bring legal repercussions for his inner circle. To counter this, he is escalating beyond rhetoric. In a chilling move, his government is advancing a “foreign agents” law, modeled on Russia’s, to target independent media and NGOs receiving foreign funding. The newly established Office for the Protection of Sovereignty will wield unchecked power to shutter organizations deemed politically inconvenient, signaling Orbán’s readiness to dismantle democratic norms to secure victory.
The consequences for Ukraine are severe. Orbán’s campaign is not merely domestic posturing; it directly undermines Kyiv’s EU aspirations. Hungary’s veto has stalled Ukraine’s accession talks, with no negotiation clusters expected to open by June 2025. By framing Ukraine as Hungary’s adversary, Orbán risks poisoning bilateral relations for years, complicating cross-border cooperation and entrenching hostility among Hungarians. If he wins in 2026, this anti-Ukraine narrative could solidify into a quasi-national ideology, blocking Ukraine’s EU path indefinitely as the political window for EU enlargement narrows.
Breaking Orbán’s strategy is daunting. Past EU concessions, like unfreezing funds in exchange for Orbán’s acquiescence, are unlikely, as Brussels grows weary of his brinkmanship. A potential wildcard lies with U.S. President Donald Trump, whose rapport with Orbán is less robust than it appears. Trump’s peace initiatives for Ukraine hinge on its EU integration, which Orbán’s vetoes obstruct. If EU leaders can persuade Trump to pressure Orbán, it might shift Hungary’s stance. Yet, this is a slim hope, requiring deft diplomacy amid complex transatlantic dynamics.
Orbán’s transformation of Ukraine into Hungary’s enemy is a high-stakes gamble, rooted in his proven tactic of fear-driven mobilization. As with Soros, he seeks to unify voters against a fabricated threat, but the fallout of this campaign could reshape regional stability and Ukraine’s European future. For Hungary, it risks further democratic erosion; for Ukraine, it threatens a prolonged exclusion from the EU. Countering this narrative demands urgent, coordinated action from Kyiv and its allies, lest Orbán’s divisive vision prevails.
A longer version of this article in Ukrainian can be found here.
Caption: A postman delivers ballot papers for the opinion poll on Ukraine’s EU accession in Budapest, Hungary, 14 April 2025. The mailing of ballots began on 14 April after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced in March that his country would carry out an opinion survey on Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU. [EPA-EFE/ZOLTAN KOCSIS]
Updated: May 17, 2025 - 06:50
