EditNorthern surprise: Iceland could outpace Western Balkans on road to EU
Brussels quietly encourages the process, viewing Iceland's integration as seamless for the wealthy, like-minded nation
The Icelandic government has recently signaled a significant acceleration in its approach to European Union membership, announcing that a national referendum on resuming long-frozen accession negotiations could take place as early as August this year – well ahead of the original 2027 deadline pledged by the ruling coalition after the 2024 parliamentary elections.
This development positions Iceland, a country that currently holds no formal candidate status in the EU’s ongoing enlargement process, in a remarkable spot to potentially outpace the Western Balkan nations that have pursued membership for over a decade. Countries such as Montenegro, Albania, and others have navigated protracted talks, facing persistent hurdles in reforms, rule of law, and regional disputes, yet remain years away from completion.
While Montenegro is often viewed as the frontrunner – having negotiated for an extended period and achieved the most substantial progress among candidates, others highlight Albania’s recent advancements toward Brussels. Some observers even suggest Moldova, with its reformist drive and ambition in the eastern neighborhood, could emerge as the next member state. Yet, developments in Iceland introduce a surprising wildcard that could alter these expectations entirely.
Montenegro recently closed Chapter 32 on financial supervision in January, reaching approximately 40 percent completion of the negotiating chapters. The government there anticipates finishing all chapters by year’s end and potentially rejoining the EU by 2028.
Geopolitical urgency and Iceland’s unique advantages
In contrast, Iceland’s situation differs markedly due to its pre-existing deep integration. The country applied for membership in 2009 amid a severe financial crisis, closed 11 of the 33 chapters before a previous administration froze negotiations in 2013, and formally requested in March 2015 to no longer be treated as a candidate.
Today, however, the accession application is considered still valid by the European Commission, and Iceland’s participation in the European Economic Area (EEA) alongside Norway and Liechtenstein means it already applies the bulk of the EU’s single market rules. This alignment, combined with Schengen membership, positions Iceland for a potentially expedited process if talks resume.
Geopolitical imperatives now propel the EU’s enlargement agenda far beyond the economic motivations that dominated earlier rounds. When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described her first administration as a “geopolitical Commission” in 2019, the emphasis lay on direction rather than an immediate blueprint for a fully operational security union. Today, however, defence, economic resilience, and strategic positioning amid competing global influences drive developments. Negotiations traditionally span years, yet indications suggest accelerated timelines for certain countries.
Ukraine might achieve membership as early as 2027 under a negotiated ceasefire scenario involving U.S. brokerage, while Moldova faces similar pressures from Russian hybrid threats, though a 2027 target remains ambitious given implementation challenges. Brussels explores models for partial integration or staged membership to address concerns among existing members about decision-making paralysis in an enlarged bloc. Proposals include delaying full voting rights for new entrants until institutional reforms occur, diverging from the immediate granting seen with Croatia in 2013.
Diplomatic momentum builds in Reykjavík and Brussels
The Icelandic parliament, the Althing, is expected to announce the referendum date within weeks, following intensified diplomatic activity – including visits by EU officials to Reykjavík and Icelandic representatives to Brussels, as well as meetings between von der Leyen and Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir. Von der Leyen has emphasized that partnership delivers stability and predictability in volatile times, while Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, after meeting Iceland’s foreign minister, described the enlargement conversation as evolving toward priorities of security, belonging, and collective action in a fragmented world.
This urgency stems from heightened geopolitical tensions in the North Atlantic. Washington’s imposition of tariffs on Iceland, combined with President Donald Trump’s remarks on Greenland and a nominee ambassador’s jest about Iceland becoming the 51st U.S. state (later apologized for), have disturbed authorities in Reykjavík. Iceland, lacking its own army, depends on NATO and a 1951 bilateral defence agreement with the United States for security. Growing Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic further underscores vulnerability. EU officials argue enlargement now transcends economics, focusing on safeguarding shared interests.
For Iceland, with a population of around 300,000 and one of the world’s highest GDP per capita, economic incentives for membership are limited – it already enjoys single-market access via the EEA. Benefits would center on enhanced security, collective defence ties, and protection of critical infrastructure like subsea cables.
During von der Leyen’s recent visit, she highlighted shared values and Iceland’s familiarity with EU norms, while pledging a trade review to upgrade the EEA framework, agreements on infrastructure protection, and negotiations for a new security and defense partnership addressing cyber and hybrid threats, potentially finalized by year’s end.
Obstacles persist, notably fisheries policy, historically a flashpoint including the so-called Cod Wars with the UK and the mackerel dispute with the EU. Post-Brexit, with the UK outside the bloc, this issue may prove less contentious. Former President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson has cautioned about domestic political resistance, and public opinion has fluctuated, though recent polls show growing support for a referendum and restarting talks. If approved, a second referendum would follow completed negotiations.
Brussels quietly encourages the process, viewing Iceland’s integration as seamless for a wealthy, like-minded Western European nation. One European diplomat noted it would demonstrate the EU’s attractiveness post-Brexit. If Iceland votes affirmatively and advances swiftly, potentially concluding in a couple of years thanks to prior progress, it could join before Montenegro, Albania, or others, despite their longer candidacy. This scenario highlights how geopolitical shifts prioritize strategic allies in vulnerable regions over traditional enlargement pacing.
Sources: Antena-M, Iceland Review, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Deutsche Welle
EU executive weighs idea of quick, but limited membership for Ukraine
Caption: The Icelandic parliament, the Althing
Updated: February 23, 2026 - 11:32
