North Rhine-Westphalia’s popular premier gains prominence amid Merz’s setbacks

Pressure on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz intensified this week following a series of electoral setbacks for his Christian Democratic Union, culminating in the party’s worst-ever result in a state parliamentary election. Amid the turmoil, attention has increasingly turned to Hendrik Wüst, the Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia and one of the most prominent figures in the Christian Democratic camp.

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on 20 September, the Alternative for Germany secured first place for the second time in two weeks, while the CDU failed even to clear the electoral threshold. The defeats have left Merz’s position increasingly precarious, with critics focusing on stalled economic reforms and a communication style that has reinforced perceptions of a leader disconnected from everyday concerns over declining living standards. A Forsa institute poll conducted in early October underscored the depth of the problem: only 11 percent of respondents rated the chancellor’s performance positively, and even among his own party’s supporters the figure stood at just 39 percent.

The setbacks come against a backdrop of broader challenges facing the governing coalition. Merz, who has long been known for his pro-business outlook and conservative fiscal approach, has struggled to translate campaign promises into tangible progress. Public frustration has grown over the slow pace of reforms and the technocratic language in which they are often presented. Within the CDU itself, voices have begun calling for greater attention to the social consequences of planned measures, including potential reductions in social security spending that could provoke significant backlash. Cooperation with the Social Democrats, who are themselves navigating political difficulties, has added further complications to the government’s efforts.

Rising profile of a key regional leader

The 51-year-old Hendrik Wüst has led Germany’s most populous state, home to roughly 18 million people, since 2021, governing in coalition with the Greens following the 2022 election. According to a ranking by the analytics firm ilium, Wüst currently ranks as the third most popular politician in the country, behind only Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of the SPD and Baden-Württemberg’s Cem Özdemir of the Greens. His standing has risen noticeably even as he has publicly backed Merz, including as one of eight conservative state leaders who expressed support ahead of the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote.

Wüst has consistently denied any ambition to replace the chancellor under current circumstances, a position echoed by those who work closely with him. Yet the timing and nature of his recent activities have fueled speculation about his growing independence and potential role in the party’s future. This week he undertook a three-day visit to Turkey accompanied by a business delegation, meeting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara along with several Turkish ministers and representatives of the opposition and civil society. The trip marked the 65th anniversary of the recruitment agreement that first brought Turkish workers to Germany in the 1960s. Agreements were reached to expand a special visa procedure for Turkish businesspeople and to deepen cooperation between Cologne/Bonn Airport and Istanbul’s Sabiha Gökçen Airport. In Istanbul, Wüst also presented former German national team captain İlkay Gündoğan with the state’s Mevlüde Genç Medal for his work against racism and exclusion. North Rhine-Westphalia is home to Germany’s largest Turkish community and hosts around 1,300 Turkish companies, giving the visit both economic and symbolic weight.

Foreign trips by premiers of Germany’s largest states are not uncommon, but the context of this one—occurring as Merz confronted a serious political crisis and coalition tensions resurfaced – has been widely interpreted as a demonstration of Wüst’s elevated status. The visit also highlighted differences in approach between the two politicians. Where Merz has been criticized for an overly technical presentation of reforms, Wüst has argued that simply reiterating the need to implement agreed measures is insufficient to build public support. He has emphasized the importance of addressing social justice concerns more explicitly, a point Merz himself has acknowledged as an area where the party has appeared out of touch.

Distinct positions on migration and the path ahead

Another clear distinction lies in the handling of migration. The AfD’s successive electoral successes have contributed to a hardening of the federal government’s stance, yet Wüst has pointedly distanced himself from the far right’s anti-immigration rhetoric. He has stated that it is unacceptable to create situations in which people with a migration background feel personally threatened and has stressed the need to combat discrimination and hostility. At the same time, he supports the principle that refugees from conflict zones such as Syria should be able to return once peace is restored, while carefully distinguishing that issue from the continuing need for skilled foreign workers. He has highlighted the positive contribution of Turkish workers to Germany’s development and the importance of attracting talent from abroad.

Germany’s constitutional framework makes replacing a sitting chancellor difficult, and senior CDU figures note that a change at the top would not resolve deeper structural problems: an aging population, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the erosion of industrial competitiveness in the face of Chinese advances. Still, opinion polls suggest Wüst could retain power in the April 2027 North Rhine-Westphalia state election in partnership with the Greens, potentially positioning him strongly for the next federal contest due in 2029. Within the party he has taken a firm line against the AfD, describing it as the main opponent of democracy and supporting examination of the legal possibilities for a ban.

Wüst’s career trajectory has been steady and rooted in the state. A lawyer from the Münsterland region, he joined the CDU at 17, entered the state parliament in 2005 as its youngest CDU member at the time, and later served as transport minister under Armin Laschet before assuming the premiership. In recent comments to ZDF he insisted that trust is rebuilt through governing rather than personnel debates, while stopping short of an absolute pledge never to enter federal politics.

Sources: FocusEurope.pl, Die Zeit, RTL, Reuters

AfD ahead as Merz rues ‘disaster’ in worst state election result in postwar Germany

Caption: Minister-President Hendrik Wüst delivers his policy statement in the North Rhine-Westphalia state parliament. [North Rhine-Westphalia state parliament]