No truce for Moscow’s 9 May parade

As Russia gears up for its annual parade on 9 May, commemorating the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, the Kremlin announced a unilateral ceasefire for 8-9 May. Ukrainian officials have rejected the proposal outright, pointing to a fresh wave of deadly Russian strikes that killed at least 27 civilians on 5-6 May, including 12 in a particularly devastating attack on Zaporizhzhia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his advisers described the Russian offer as cynical propaganda, especially after overnight drone, missile, and guided bomb attacks hit civilian areas across multiple regions, including Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and others. “Russia is asking for a pause while carrying out such terrorist strikes,” officials noted, underscoring that any genuine truce must be meaningful and reciprocal – not a temporary shield for Moscow’s commemorations.

In response, Ukraine had proposed its own broader “regime of silence” starting from midnight on 5-6 May, framing it as a real effort to save lives rather than a one- or two-day window tied to the Russian parade. Kyiv has made clear it will not halt operations solely to allow Russia an undisturbed Victory Day spectacle.

Scaled-back parade amid security fears

This year’s parade on Red Square will be significantly diminished. For the first time in nearly two decades, it will feature no tanks, heavy military equipment, or missile systems – only foot marches by troops. The changes come amid heightened fears of Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow, with airports closed or restricted and security ramped up across the capital.

Limited international presence

International attendance remains sparse. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, one of the few European leaders maintaining dialogue with Moscow, plans to visit but will not attend the military parade itself. According to reports and his own statements, Fico will only lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier near the Kremlin walls and hold a brief meeting with President Vladimir Putin. He has called the trip a “moral duty” to honour the Soviet liberation of Slovakia, despite criticism from EU partners and airspace restrictions by Baltic states.

Downbeat atmosphere in Moscow

A palpable sense of unease hangs over Moscow as Russia prepares for its traditionally triumphant Victory Day events. Western intelligence reports and media highlight deep paranoia within the Kremlin, with President Vladimir Putin reportedly hunkering in bunkers and imposing unprecedented security measures amid fears of assassination attempts and a potential coup. European intelligence sources point to heightened concerns since March 2026, including surveillance on staff and speculation involving figures like former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. These rumours, though unconfirmed, reflect growing elite tensions as the war grinds on.

On the battlefield, Russian forces have suffered notable setbacks, recording a net territorial loss in Ukraine for the first time in nearly two years during April 2026, with advances stalling amid high casualties and effective Ukrainian counteractions. This military frustration coincides with domestic discontent: authorities have imposed widespread mobile internet blackouts in Moscow and other cities ahead of the celebrations – officially for security but fuelling public irritation.

It’s clearly not going well for the Putin 🇷🇺 war. Previously his soldiers made increasingly marginal gains 🇺🇦, but In April his soldiers actually lost territory. pic.twitter.com/RqZyCJLhEd
— Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) May 5, 2026

Caption: Russian servicemen prepare for a rehearsal of the annual military parade ahead of Victory Day celebrations in downtown Moscow, Russia, 4 May 2026. Russia is preparing to mark the 81st anniversary of Nazi Germany’s unconditional surrender in World War II (WWII). A foot column of military personnel will take part in the Victory Day parade on Red Square. Due to the operational situation, military equipment will not be included. Suvorov and Nakhimov cadets will not participate in the parade this year, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced. EPA/MAXIM SHIPENKOV