Nigel Farage and the drama at Clacton

In the 2024 UK general election Nigel Farage won just over 46% of the vote for the constituency of Clacton, taking the seat previously held by the Conservative MP Giles Watling: it was Farage’s eight attempt to become an MP. His election as MP for Clacton was one of the standout victories for Reform UK in the 2024 election. On 7 July, just two years after entering the Commons Mr Farage announced that he would vacate his seat in order to trigger a by-election which he would recontest.

At the time commentators saw the decision as a miscalculation by Farage, speculating that the decision would backfire, lead to a humiliating defeat and undermine Reform. Farage and Reform see the by-election very differently – as an opportunity to ‘work around’ the very real issues that have arisen over eye-watering funding given to Farage in the run-up to the 2024 general election and as an opportunity to ‘stick it’ to the major British political parties. The counting of the votes cast in Clacton on 13 August will be very closely watched.

Months of controversy

Nigel Farage’s decision to resign his seat in the Commons and trigger a by-election followed months of political controversy sparked by reports published by The Guardian and the BBC on 29 April. The reports, published days before voting in Council elections in England and in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections, revealed that Farage had received a €5 million gift from Christopher Harborne, a Thailand-based cryptocurrency investor and the wealthiest British-born person on The Sunday Times Rich List

When the story broke, Farage argued the funds were a gift intended to pay for personal security and a ‘reward’ from Harborne for his leadership in the Brexit campaign. He insisted that there had been no need to declare the funds as he had not been a member of parliament at the time they were received.

On 30th April, the Electoral Commission indicated that it was contemplating an investigation into the matter. With elections a week off the timing could not have been worse for Farage and the Reform Party. However, notwithstanding the negative publicity the May elections delivered a series of striking victories for the Reform Party and Farage.

Less than a week after the elections the UK Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards announced its intention to open an investigation into whether Nigel Farage should have declared the money he had received after he had returned to Parliament as an MP in 2024.

During the Makerfield by-election in June, the Labour Party used the publicity surrounding Harborne’s funding to attack Farage and Reform. The Labour Party chairperson Anna Turley, a long-standing ally of Andy Burnham wrote to Nigel Farage urging him to “stop evading reasonable scrutiny” over the €millions received from Christopher Harborne. In the letter Turley suggested: “It’s time (Farage) ended his deafening silence and came clean with the public as to what’s going on here, he can’t keep dodging questions and changing his story.”

On 5 July the Sunday Times broke another story on support received by Farage revealing he had been provided with staff, support to boost his social presence, security, and accommodation by George Cotterell. Cotterell a British cryptocurrency entrepreneur and a long-standing Farage ally had been convicted by the US authorities in 2017 of wire fraud. Two days later, on 7 July Farage announced that he would vacate his seat to trigger a by-election which he would recontest, saying the “people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions”.

Farage pushes for public judgement over deepening financial scandal

A rare miscalculation – or an act of genius?

Immediately after Farage announced his decision something of a consensus began to emerge that he had made a rare miscalculation. Much of the UK mainstream media were scathing of Farage’s decision portraying it as an act of desperation. The by-election was characterised as a ‘circus’ with Farage as ringmaster. The Economist characterised the decision as a blatant attempt to distract. The BBC questioned whether Farage’s resignation was “honourable or a psychological game”.

The main political parties in the UK decided against contesting the by-election. A labour Party spokesperson called the by-election a “circus” and made it clear that the Party would not stand a candidate. The Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch accused Farage of triggering the by election for his personal advantage rather than to serve the people of Clacton who “deserved better representation” . The Conservative Party would not contest the be-election because it would not dance to Nigel Farage’s tune”. In a letter addressed to the voters of Clacton Ms Badenoch accused Farage of calling the by-election “not to help you, but to help himself”, suggesting: “Mr Farage wants the people of Clacton to settle his problems for him”. She promised that when the investigation process has run its course “and there is a genuine contest, we (the Conservatives) will be there”.

The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey said there should be no by-election until the funding accusations against Farage were fully examined. Announcing that his party had decided not to contest the by-election Davey urged all parties to “stand aside and refuse to give oxygen to Farage’s vanity project”.

The leader of the UK Green Party Zack Polanski. Dismissed the by-election as “a desperate stunt from a desperate politician whose lifetime of grifting is finally catching up with him” and announced “the Greens will play no part in (Farage’s) political circus.

Curiously one of the few commentators to go against the consensus on Farage’s decision was Giles Watling the former Conservative MP for Clacton. Watling, who won the Clacton seat in the 2017 General Election and retained it in 2019 when he won 72.3% of the vote and a massive majority that was wiped out by Farage in the 2024 election – took a different view on Farage’s decision. In a BBC report Mr Watling described Farage’s decision to trigger the by-election as “a brilliant psychological game”, adding: “It’s brilliant, it’s genius – there’s no two ways about it.” Watling concluded Farage “may well win out again.”

The response from Reform and Farage

While Nigel Farage’s decision to resign as Clacton MP and immediately seek re-election in a by-election has been reported as taking many in his party by surprise, the response of his colleagues to his decision was robust. Robert Jenrick a former Conservative MP and Reform’s Shadow Chancellor was scathing of the decision of the other political parties not to contest the by-election describing them as “too chicken to stand,” a decision that “says more about them than us”.

Danny Kruger who was elected as a Conservative MP in the 2019 and 2024 general elections before joining Reform described the scrutiny on Farage and on his family as an attempt by “established power” in the media and government to disable Reform because of the threat the party posed to the political establishment. Kruger argued that those attacking Farage had not revealed a single instance of wrongdoing. They were he suggested ‘playing the man not the ball’ a tactic that would be seen as unfair and that would not work.

Nigel Farage himself characterised the by-election as a “the people versus the establishment by-election” an opportunity for ordinary voters “to stick 2 fingers up to the entire establishment” and to “frankly tell them where to go”. He insisted that the people of Clacton should be the judges of his actions, characterized the by-election as “an opportunity to continue the political revolution that Reform has started”, telling the voters of Clacton: “if I win you win”, adding: “if I lose, they win. If they win, you lose”, and if that happens: “we will never — get the type of fundamental change that we need to fix broken Britain.”

In a campaign message “A Statement on My Future” issued on 7 July as he announced his decision to resign as an MP, Farage again insisted that in accepting funding and other support he had “done nothing wrong”. That any funds received had been given to him on an “unconditional basis”. That the criticism that he faced was evidence that “the Establishment (having) now decided that they can’t beat us fairly, so they’ve chosen to use foul means”.

In that message Farage was particularly critical of the Sunday Times and of Sky News, suggesting that both were guilty of intimidation and endangering his family. Farage insisted “I will not tolerate the location of where they live being revealed I will not tolerate any of my family being endangered because of what I choose to do in public life.”

Two days after Farage issued that statement the news broke about the horrific murder of Ann Widdicombe the former MP and MEP and the Reform UK spokesperson on immigration and Justice. The story which dominated the UK news through the opening weeks of the by-election campaign made it very difficult to challenge the points long made by Farage and his supporters that the Reform leader needed the level of security that was only possible with the support of private financial backers.

The competition

When Farage announced his intended course of action the ‘dream result’ for the major political parties and many political commentators was that the Clacton by-election would see Farage losing to Count Binface, the alter ego of a comedian who campaigns in a giant bin helmet, armor, and gray cloak, or another ‘satirical’ candidate from the Official Monster Raving Loony Party – a humiliation that would see an end to his political career. The ‘next-best’ outcome would be for Farage to run against a handful of candidates and ‘scrape’ over the line with a derisory vote.

When nominations for the by-election closed on at 16.00 on 14 July, in addition to Nigel Farage thirty three other candidates had registered to contest the election – the largest number of candidates ever nominated to contest any British by-election.

The candidate list broke the previous record, set in the July 2008 Haltemprice and Howden by- election which was contested by 26 candidates. That by-election, was also triggered when an MEP resigned from the Commons with the intention of contesting the resulting be-election to ‘make a point’. The MP David Davis then Conservative Party Shadow Home Secretary triggered the by-election to highlight opposition to a proposal from the Labour Government of Gordon Brown to extend the maximum period allowed for the detention of terrorist suspects without charge from 28 to 42 days. The Labour Party decided not to contest the by-election. It labelled the decision by David Davis as a ‘political stunt’ and described Davis’ victory in the election as “a vain stunt that became and remains a farce”. The Liberal Democrats also decided not to contest the by-election arguing that they agreed with the line being taken by Davis on the extension of the detention period.

There was another parallel between the 2008 by-election and the upcoming contest in Clacton. David Davis won the seat in Haltemprice and Howden in the 2005 general election taking 47.5% of the votes cast to Labour’s 12.7%. In the 2024 general election Farage won 46.2% of the votes cast in the Clacton constituency. The Labour party candidate won 16.2% of the vote.

Labour’s decision in 2008 was a pragmatic one. It did not run a candidate to avoid the humiliation of a defeat and in order to deny Davis the public platform that he needed to ‘prosecute’ his case. While turnout in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election was low, 34.5%. Davis took 71.6% of the votes cast.

The likely outcome on 13 August

The limited polling that is available on the by-election suggests that those who saw triggering and then contesting a by-election as potentially a fatal error by Nigel Farage are in for a disappointment.

Farage has taken a hit nationally from revelations about funding and other support. An Ipsos survey conducted in the days following Farage’s announcement that he would resign and seek re-election found that 33% of adults across the UK would prefer to see Count Binface win the election while 21% indicated a preference for Farage. A YouGov poll of just under 4,600 adults across the UK conducted on 8 July found that 37% of those polled agreed with the main political parties’ decision to boycott the by-election, 25% disagreed, and 38% were undecided.

The most relevant poll in terms of voter intentions, a telephone poll conducted between 16th and 24th July by Survation recorded 73% support for Nigel Farage, 20% for Count Binface. The 73% poll support for Farage would if replicated in Clacton – even with a very poor voter turnout – be a significant victory for Farage and Reform. It will not however end Farage’s problems. When returned as an MP the parliamentary inquiry that was suspended when he resigned is likely to be reopened. While the Parliamentary Commissioner had not indicated a decision when the investigation was suspended on 8 July the probability of a negative finding seems high. The rule under which Farage was being investigated requires newly elected MPs to register gifts or financial benefits received in the 12 months prior to their election if they relate to their political or parliamentary activities within one month of becoming an MP.

The £5 million received from Christopher Harborne was the subject of bank transfers in April 2024, just three months before the July 2024 general election and the support from George Cotterell came in the months running up to the election. Notwithstanding the robust protestations from Nigel Farage during the by-election campaign about the funding support being ‘personal’ it is difficult to see how the benefits could be outside the registration requirements. A positive result for Farage at Clacton could, ironically, put him under renewed scrutiny from the Parliamentary Commissioner and potentially see him in him having to face yet another by-election.

The drama does not stop there. If re-elected Nigel Farage will be sworn when the Commons reconvenes on Thursday 1 September, the same day on which Andy Burnham is expected to make his first appearance in the Commons as Prime Minister – could be a very interesting day at Westminster.

Caption: A supporter of Count Binface in Clacton-on-Sea (Clacton), Britain, 8 August 2026. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage will contest the Clacton by-election on 13 August in an effort to regain his seat after announcing his resignation as an MP on 7 July 2026, following a row over his financial affairs. Major UK political parties are not contesting the election, while satirical candidate Count Binface is polling second with support from around 20 percent of Clacton voters, according to a recent poll. EPA/NEIL HALL