EditNew methane rules could cut off nearly half of Europe’s gas imports starting next year
The problem, according to the industry: almost no exporting countries currently meet the EU's strict MRV equivalence standards
Europe’s oil and gas industry is sounding the alarm: tough new EU rules aimed at slashing methane emissions from fossil fuels could backfire badly, potentially disrupting supplies of natural gas and crude oil as early as January 2027.
A study commissioned by industry groups IOGP Europe and FuelsEurope, carried out by energy consultants Wood Mackenzie and released on 9 March, paints a stark picture. It warns that up to 43% of the EU’s natural gas imports (around 114 billion cubic meters, based on 2024 levels) and as much as 87% of crude oil imports (about 9.8 million barrels per day) could become non-compliant with the rules.
The result? Possible shortages, skyrocketing fuel prices, refinery closures, and a hit to energy security just when Europe is still recovering from past supply shocks.
The rules in question are part of the EU Methane Emissions Regulation (often called the EUMR), which entered into force in 2024 as part of the bloc’s push to fight climate change. Methane – a potent greenhouse gas leaked during oil and gas production – is responsible for a significant chunk of global warming, and the EU wants to cut it sharply.
From January 2027, importers of natural gas, crude oil, and coal must prove that the fuel comes from countries or companies using monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems at least as strict as those inside the EU. Alternatively, suppliers can meet a high voluntary standard under the international Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0 Level 5). Non-compliance could mean heavy fines, so suppliers might simply stop selling to Europe rather than risk penalties.
The problem, according to the industry: almost no exporting countries currently meet the EU’s strict MRV equivalence standards. Global production ready to comply under the voluntary scheme is projected to cover only a fraction of demand – around 26% in 2027, rising slowly to 28% by 2030. Certification systems to prove compliance aren’t expected to be fully up and running by the deadline either.
What could go wrong for everyday Europeans?
- Gas shortages similar in scale to the 2022 cutoff of Russian pipeline supplies, pushing prices through the roof and risking blackouts or industrial shutdowns.
- Oil refineries hit hard: The study estimates EU refinery output could drop by about 50% (4.6 million barrels per day) between 2027 and 2030—equivalent to closing around 40 refineries. Europe might flip from exporting gasoline to importing it, adding billions to the fuel import bill.
- Higher prices at the pump: Gasoline could rise by up to 24% and diesel by 16%, making driving, heating, manufacturing, and transport more expensive for households and businesses.
François-Régis Mouton de Lostalot, managing director of IOGP Europe (which represents major players like ExxonMobil, BP, TotalEnergies, and Chevron, covering about 70% of Europe’s oil and gas production), said: “The EU cannot afford a self-made regulatory supply shock, even more so in the current geopolitical context.”
The groups acknowledge that reducing methane leaks is important – “a matter of credibility for our industry” – and say they support realistic ways to achieve it. But they argue the current timeline and requirements are simply not feasible.
Their main request: a “Stop-the-Clock” mechanism – basically a pause or delay – to give time for practical fixes, adjustments to the rules, and workable certification systems.
The European Commission has not yet responded publicly to the latest study, but the debate highlights a classic tension: ambitious climate goals versus the realities of keeping the lights on and factories running affordably. With winter demand still high and geopolitical risks lingering, many will be watching closely to see if Brussels tweaks the rules before the 2027 deadline hits.
For now, the message from the industry is clear: fix this soon, or Europe risks turning a green ambition into an energy headache.
António Costa, President of the European Council, is in Baku today. Azerbaijan is a major supplier of gas for Europe and is likely to be a victim of the EU new rules.
To download the full study visit this page
Caption: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (C) and European Commissioner for Energy and Housing Dan Jorgensen (R) attend a press conference in Brussels, Belgium, 3 December 2025. EPA/OLIVIER MATTHYS
Updated: March 11, 2026 - 08:11
