Moldova’s elections: high stakes battle for Ukraine’s EU path and security

The parliamentary elections in Moldova on Sunday (28 September) are a critical juncture for Ukraine’s European integration and regional security. As Ukraine pursues EU accession, Moldova’s political direction could either support or undermine these efforts due to their paired candidacy, writes Sergiy Sydorenko, chief editor of EUalive’s partner European Pravda.

Why Moldova matters to Ukraine

Moldova’s role as a logistical hub for Ukraine is critical. It facilitates exports, imports, and military transit, especially via the Palanca expressway connecting Odesa to southern Ukraine, where other routes are disrupted. The current pro-European government under President Maia Sandu supports Ukraine’s reconstruction, planning infrastructure like a new expressway and railway upgrades.

Conversely, a pro-Russian victory in Chisinau could transform Moldova into a physical and logistical barrier, particularly for Ukraine’s Odesa region, disrupting the supply of strategic commodities and weapons essential for its defence and economy.

Politically, Moldova’s alignment directly impacts Ukraine’s EU trajectory. As paired EU candidates, their progress is intertwined. Romania advocates for Moldova, while Nordic and Baltic states support Ukraine. A pro-Russian Moldova could stall its own EU integration, potentially derailing Ukraine’s due to their linked status, especially if Hungary’s veto under Viktor Orban persists until its April 2026 elections.

The Kremlin’s strategy

Russia aims to sway Moldova’s elections through “hybrid” tactics, leveraging pro-Russian figures and far-right nationalists to undermine Sandu’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). Key players include:

Igor Dodon’s Patriotic Bloc: Led by former President Dodon, this pro-Russian Socialist Party is a top contender. Despite publicly endorsing EU integration, experts believe it receives Russian funding and would halt Moldova’s European path if victorious. Polls suggest Dodon’s bloc could challenge PAS for first place, as many voters hide anti-government sentiments due to fear, skewing survey results.
Ion Ceban’s Alternative Bloc: Chisinau’s mayor, Ceban, positioned his bloc as a centrist, pro-European alternative to PAS. However, Romania’s EU entry ban, branding him pro-Russian, has damaged his appeal, risking failure to meet the 7% electoral threshold. This weakens the Kremlin’s chances of forming a pro-Russian coalition if Ceban’s bloc misses parliament.
Far-Right Nationalists: The Moldova Mare party, led by Victoria Furtune, a proxy for Kremlin-linked oligarch Ilan Shor, campaigns on annexing parts of Ukraine’s Odesa region. Shor’s illegal “network” allegedly bribes voters in poor areas, potentially securing 70,000–80,000 votes to propel Moldova Mare or Dodon’s bloc into parliament. Similarly, Democraţia Acasă, led by Vasile Costiuc and backed by Romanian nationalist Gheorghe Simion, is suspected of FSB ties. Despite ideological differences, these groups could ally with Dodon to oust Sandu, as seen in a 2019 coalition against oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc.

Vote-buying

Russia is deploying sophisticated hybrid tactics to influence Moldova’s parliamentary elections. A key strategy is the “Shor network,” an illegal vote-buying scheme orchestrated by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, now based in Moscow. This network targets voters in Moldova’s poorer regions, offering payments via Russia’s Promsvyazbank, affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Estimates suggest 70,000–80,000 votes could be secured, enough to push pro-Russian parties like Dodon’s Patriotic Bloc or Furtune’s Moldova Mare over the electoral threshold. Instructions on whom to vote for are expected to be issued just before the election, maximizing impact while evading detection. Despite efforts by Moldovan authorities to counter this network, its covert nature makes it difficult to dismantle, posing a significant threat to electoral integrity.

A pro-Russian coalition, even if publicly pro-EU, could sabotage Moldova’s European integration, indirectly stalling Ukraine’s. It might also pursue a Russian-brokered Transnistrian settlement, which U.S. President Donald Trump could tout as a diplomatic win, despite security risks for Ukraine. Moldova’s government could become a Kremlin tool, disrupting Ukraine’s logistics and military support.

Election outlook

Moldovan polls are unreliable, with a third of voters undisclosed or undecided, likely favouring anti-government candidates. A closed study showed voters underreport anti-EU sentiments, as evidenced by the 2024 EU referendum where 54% voted “against” inside Moldova, yet only 25.6% later admitted it. This suggests Dodon’s bloc could outperform expectations.

A PAS victory, potentially with Renato Usatii’s Our Party, could sustain Moldova’s pro-European course, supporting Ukraine’s EU bid and logistics. A hung parliament might force repeat elections, delaying outcomes but preserving hope for stability. The elections’ results, to be revealed on 28-29 September, will shape Ukraine’s EU path, logistical lifelines, and regional security. A pro-Russian Moldova risks empowering Kremlin proxies, isolating Odesa, and threatening Ukraine’s stability, while Sandu’s success could safeguard both nations’ European futures.

A longer original version of this article in Ukrainian can be found here.

Caption: A woman walks near an electoral campaign tent in Balti, Moldova, 23 September 2025. Moldova’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for 28 September 2025. EPA/EPA/DUMITRU DORU