Moldova’s elections: a gateway to a Georgian scenario?

Tomorrow (28 September) Moldova will hold parliamentary elections that could shape its political and geopolitical trajectory. These elections are pivotal due to Moldova’s parliamentary system, where the legislature, not the president, holds primary power in forming the government and setting policy. The central issue is whether Moldova will maintain its EU integration path, critical not only for itself but also for Ukraine and the broader region, writes Rostislav Klimov, expert at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”.

A shift toward pro-Russian forces could mirror Georgia’s recent geopolitical drift, with severe consequences for Moldova’s economy, security, and international standing.

The election stakes

Moldova’s pro-European course, championed by President Maia Sandu, faces a critical test. A pro-Russian parliamentary majority could form a government that pivots toward Moscow, sidelining Sandu and stalling EU integration. Even a coalition with moderately pro-Russian factions might dilute reforms through compromises, undermining Moldova’s strategic direction.

The “Georgian scenario” looms large: Georgia’s recent shift away from the EU led to slashed financial aid, halted military cooperation, and growing ties with Russia, isolating Tbilisi internationally. Moldova risks a similar fate if pro-Russian forces dominate.

Economic risks

Moldova relies heavily on EU financial support. Since 2022, the EU has provided €295 million in macro-financial assistance, tied to reforms like judicial independence and customs modernization, with €50 million disbursed in December 2024. The Moldova Growth Plan (2025–27) allocates €1.885 billion for investments, with €270 million already received. Additionally, €260 million in grants from 2021–24 support energy, justice, and green economy reforms. Failure to uphold these commitments could freeze funds, as seen in Georgia, where the EU redirected aid to NGOs and local communities, bypassing the government.

A pro-Russian shift could also limit access to European Investment Bank and EBRD loans, jeopardizing infrastructure projects in energy, transport, and healthcare. The EU, Moldova’s largest trading partner (53.7% of trade, 65.4% of exports), abolished tariffs on agricultural products in 2022–23, boosting exports. Reinstating these tariffs could slash agricultural exports by 10–20%, costing €100 million annually and thousands of jobs. A partial suspension of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area could further hit sectors like winemaking and light industry, shrinking GDP.

Security and political implications

Moldova’s security cooperation with the EU, despite its neutrality, includes the 2023 European Partnership Mission to counter hybrid threats and a 2024 Security and Defence Partnership. The European Peace Fund has provided €137 million in military equipment since 2021. A pro-Russian government could jeopardize this aid, weakening Moldova’s defences against cybersecurity and disinformation threats. While some EU programs might persist through NGOs, their scope would shrink, and Moldova’s security sector could face increased pressure.

Politically, a pivot toward Russia would isolate Moldova, as seen in Georgia’s stalled EU membership talks. The EU could impose sanctions, such as travel bans on Moldovan officials, and Moldova’s influence in regional forums would wane. Seeking alternative partners like Russia could deepen dependence, particularly in energy, forcing Moldova to resume reliance on Gazprom and halt diversification efforts.

The Georgian precedent

Georgia’s experience since 2023 illustrates the risks. After adopting a pro-Russian stance, Georgia lost EU financial and military support, faced sanctions, and saw its EU candidacy stall. Moldova could face similar consequences: frozen aid, restricted market access, and political isolation. Even a partial retreat from EU reforms could slow accession talks, deter investors, and exacerbate brain drain, as EU banks grow cautious over money laundering risks and secondary sanctions.

The 28 September elections will determine whether Moldova stays on its EU path or risks a Georgian-style reversal. A pro-Russian majority could unravel years of progress, cutting off financial aid, trade benefits, and security cooperation while deepening reliance on Moscow. Even a coalition requiring compromises could erode Moldova’s strategic course. The stakes are high: the election’s outcome will shape Moldova’s future, its regional role, and its relationship with the EU.

A longer version of this aricle in Ukrainian can be found here.

Caption: Supporters of PAS party attend a march to support the voting process at parliamentary elections in downtown Chisinau, Moldova, 26 September 2025. Moldova will hold parliamentary elections on 28 September 2025. The banner reads: ‘What are you doing on Sanday?’. EPA/DUMITRU DORU