Lithuania’s coalition tensions fuel fears of wavering Ukraine support

Lithuania, one of Ukraine’s closest allies, is facing a political crisis that could reshape its foreign policy course. The turmoil has raised concerns in both Vilnius and Kyiv that support for Ukraine may weaken as nationalist forces consolidate power.

“The current political situation in Lithuania can be described as a deepening crisis and things will only get worse,” says Lithuanian political analyst Vytautas Bruveris, who spoke to EUalive’s partner European Pravda.

At the centre of the crisis stands the rising populist movement “Dawn of Neman”, a personality-driven political project led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis. Initially known for his inflammatory presidential campaign rhetoric, Žemaitaitis openly embraced anti-Ukrainian, anti-Western, anti-EU and anti-American narratives – and even flirted with old-fashioned antisemitic tropes disguised as “criticism of Israel”.

According to Bruveris, this success signals a shift long underestimated abroad. “There is an idealised image of Lithuania as the most pro-Ukrainian and pro-Western country, where what happened in Hungary or Slovakia could never happen. But in reality, it can – and it is happening,” he says.

He estimates that about 30% of Lithuania’s electorate can be described as “soft or hard pro-Russian voters” – a bloc that, after years of political marginalisation, is now experiencing a revival.

Populists gain ground

A new cabinet led by Inga Ruginenė was formed last August. “Dawn of Neman” has entered the ruling coalition and is now its second most influential force. From this position, it has launched attacks against key pro-Western ministers – first forcing the resignation of the defence minister, and then targeting Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys.

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The latest scandal erupted during Budrys’s visit to Washington, when Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó arrived in Vilnius on a “private visit” and met with Žemaitaitis. The two men reportedly had lunch together and even signed “certain documents”, triggering outrage in Lithuania. “Now everyone is asking the president and prime minister what this means and what they intend to do – and no one has an answer,” Bruveris says.

The Lithuanian president, Gitanas Nausėda, bears part of the blame, he adds. Driven by hostility toward the conservatives – particularly their former leader, ex-foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, Nausėda helped legitimise “Dawn of Neman” by accepting it as a coalition partner to keep the conservatives out of power.

A coalition of contradictions

To preserve a parliamentary majority, the ruling Social Democrats replaced the centrist Democrats – For Lithuania party of former prime minister Saulius Skvernelis with the left-leaning Farmers and Greens Union, which also includes populist figures ideologically close to Žemaitaitis’s movement.

Many of these politicians made their name as anti-vaxxers during the pandemic and now promote anti-migrant, homophobic and anti-Ukrainian messages. One of them, MP Ignas Vėgėlė, has turned the Ukrainian flag itself into a political target, campaigning to remove it from parliament and public buildings.

In addition, the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania, a small but openly pro-Russian and anti-Western party, also joined the coalition. “It’s unique to Lithuania that part of the Polish minority here is pro-Moscow,” Bruveris notes. “And they have never acted as aggressively as they do now.”

As a result, the government’s foreign policy faces increasing internal pressure. “The Social Democrats could have easily formed a minority government and worked issue by issue with other parties,” he says. “Instead, they chose to ally with populists – a mistake that even many within their own party now recognise.”

Risks for Ukraine

Officially, Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė insists that Lithuania’s foreign policy remains unchanged, and that support for Ukraine “is and will remain a priority.” Her first foreign visit after taking office was indeed to Kyiv.

But the reality, analysts warn, is more complex. “Formally, nothing has changed – but our foreign policy is becoming increasingly hollow and declarative,” Bruveris says. “Lithuania should be three times more active, shaping narratives and leading by example. Instead, we drift.”

Meanwhile, the government’s indecision is becoming costly. The recent crisis on the Belarusian border – where hundreds of Lithuanian truck drivers are now effectively hostages after Minsk retaliated against Lithuania’s closure of border crossings – has exposed the government’s lack of strategic foresight.

Inside Lithuania, society itself is divided: some blame the drivers for allegedly helping evade sanctions, while others insist that the state must help them regardless. “But no one knows what to do,” Bruveris says.

The Hungarian and Russian shadows

The analyst warns that unless early elections are called – a difficult prospect under Lithuania’s constitution, the crisis will deepen. “It’s possible that only a major scandal, perhaps linked to Russian influence on the government or coalition, could trigger a reset,” he says.

“I don’t want to see Russia’s hand everywhere – often we manage to fail on our own,” he adds. “But in the case of “Dawn of Neman”, it’s hard to believe Moscow isn’t involved. Traditional Lithuanian populists care only about money. These ones behave differently – they act like saboteurs.”

Their recent meeting with Hungary’s Szijjártó, he concludes, “was effectively a terrorist act against Lithuania’s foreign policy course.”

You can find the full article in Ukrainian in European Pravda.

Caption: Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda (R) welcomes Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) to the Vilnius Summit of B9 (Bucharest Nine) and Nordic countries in Vilnius, Lithuania, 02 June 2025. EPA/TOMS KALNINS