Lithuania’s coalition crisis could bring Vilnius closer to Ukraine

Lithuania’s unfolding government crisis may reshape the country’s foreign policy stance in a way that benefits Ukraine. The resignation of Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas, announced on Friday (1 August), has not only shaken the ruling Social Democratic Party but also created an opportunity to reformat the coalition and remove the populist forces that have strained Lithuania’s traditionally strong support for Kyiv.

For months, Ukraine watchers in Vilnius have viewed the inclusion of the “Dawn of Nemunas” party in the government as a troubling concession. The party, known for its populist rhetoric and ambiguous positioning on Russia’s war against Ukraine, joined the coalition last year as part of a political compromise to secure Paluckas’ appointment as prime minister. Now, with his departure, that compromise may unravel, EUalive’s partner European Pravda reports.

President Gitanas Nausėda has already hinted at a possible coalition reshuffle. “The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party, which holds a majority in the Seimas, will begin consultations on forming a new coalition”, Nausėda stated following Paluckas’ resignation.

This scenario opens a path to replacing the populists with more pro-European and pro-Ukrainian forces – an outcome that would realign Lithuania’s government with its traditionally outspoken support for Ukraine, at a time when political backing from EU partners remains critical for Kyiv.

A government built on shaky foundations

Paluckas’ leadership was controversial from the outset. His appointment last December came after MEP Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, who had led the Social Democrats to victory in the parliamentary elections, unexpectedly withdrew her candidacy, citing health issues. Paluckas, a former party chairman with a criminal conviction from 2010, was viewed by many as an inadequate replacement.

Fears that parts of the Social Democrats would reject his nomination led to a politically risky expansion of the coalition to include “Dawn of Nemunas”, a party whose leader was already under investigation for corruption. The inclusion of this populist ally created friction both within the ruling coalition and among Lithuania’s traditional partners in Central and Eastern Europe.

Paluckas’ tenure proved short-lived. In recent weeks, Lithuanian media outlets exposed a series of scandals implicating the prime minister in financial misconduct. These included an unpaid court fine dating back to his time at Vilnius City Hall, dubious land acquisitions, and questionable loans to companies linked to him. The mounting controversies culminated in his resignation, announced not by Paluckas himself, but by President Nausėda.

Coalition reset

The departure of Paluckas has triggered a scramble within the Social Democratic Party. Mindaugas Sinkevičius, currently the acting party leader, has expressed interest in taking over both the party leadership and the premiership. However, his own criminal record complicates his candidacy, making it unlikely that he will secure broad public support.

Attention has therefore shifted to other potential candidates, including Juozas Olekas, First Deputy Speaker of the Seimas and a respected figure in Lithuanian politics with a strong track record as both Health and Defence Minister. Another possibility is Inga Ruginienė, the current Minister of Social Protection and Labour.

Yet, beyond personalities, the coalition’s composition remains the central question. “Dawn of Nemunas” has already signalled readiness to leave the government. However, alternative partners are scarce. The Lithuanian Peasants and Greens Union, despite its controversial ties to oligarch Ramūnas Karbauskis, is one of the few available options, though its reputation still fares better than that of the populists.

A grand coalition with the conservative Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats remains off the table, as does an alliance with the Liberal Movement, which has publicly criticised the current government’s decisions.

Regardless of the outcome, the coalition crisis presents Lithuania’s political leadership with an opportunity to recalibrate the country’s foreign policy at a critical time for Ukraine. Replacing a populist partner with a more Euro-Atlantic oriented ally could strengthen Lithuania’s position as a leading voice for Ukraine within the EU and NATO.