EditLessons to be learned from the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace
Kyiv is also calling on NATO to finally start shooting down missiles and drones while they are still over Ukraine
There is no doubt that the Kremlin is fully aware that a drone attack against a NATO member, even if limited and carefully designed not to cross red lines, is a deliberate and controlled escalation.
EUalive publishes the key highlights from the analysis by European Pravda, EUalive’s partner in Ukraine.
Some of the objectives that Russia possibly seeks to achieve with the drone attack on Poland are obvious. Putin’s strategic goal is the destruction of Western unity and the erosion of trust within NATO. The attack on Poland, a NATO member and close US ally, deliberately planned so that NATO could not respond. So, this fits this goal perfectly. It feeds distrust and strengthens the narrative of a helpless NATO.
Putin’s attack also dealt a severe blow to confidence in NATO’s air defences. While not disastrous, the results of the attempts to repel this attack were unacceptably poor.
Despite the relatively small number of drones in Polish airspace, and the fact that NATO allies joined in the effort to shoot them down, only a few drones were intercepted. One flew across half of Poland without hindrance and crashed in a field 300 km from the Ukrainian border after running out of fuel. Another nearly reached Gdańsk without being noticed.
Polish F-16s, assisted by a Dutch F-35 unit, Italian AWACS and Patriot radars, were only able to shoot down a small fraction of the drones (according to unconfirmed reports, just 4 out of 19).
Of course, the Poles can argue that the drones were not aimed at strategic targets, where defences may be stronger, or that the Polish military lacks combat experience, while Russia has gained plenty of that in its war against Ukraine. But these explanations only bolster the argument that NATO’s skies are inadequately protected.
At the same time, organisations monitoring public discourse in Poland report that they are seeing a visible boost to Russia-friendly narratives in Polish social media such as “NATO won’t protect you” and “This is Ukraine’s fault.”
Taken together, this leaves Poland and the Alliance as a whole facing a difficult choice.
The traditional approaches inherited from Cold War days would encourage NATO to avoid escalation and instead “start a dialogue” with Russia to prevent future incidents. But choosing to go down that route would be a defeat for the Alliance and a victory for Putin.
Moreover, it would confirm to the Kremlin that its strategy of gradual escalation was working perfectly, and very soon, we would see Russia’s next steps. Gradual escalation would inevitably lead to the use of weapons against specific targets on Polish territory.
NATO must respond asymmetrically
This is exactly what Kyiv is already urging. What is needed is a coordinated sanctions response from EU and NATO members that will truly hurt the Kremlin. But is the West – and above all US President Donald Trump – ready to overcome its hesitation and take that step? That question remains open.
Kyiv is also calling on NATO to finally start shooting down missiles and drones while they are still over Ukraine. This decision is long overdue, dictated by instincts of self-preservation. This is the only way the Alliance can gain the experience it needs for self-defence before the need becomes urgent.
Perhaps NATO’s pityful performance in defending Poland from the drone attack will finally force the Allies to acknowledge this necessity.
Disappointment in Ukraine
Many in Ukraine were disappointed that the Alliance did not invoke Article 5 on collective defence. Although the drone attack on Poland was intentional, it did not cross the threshold required. In this article, we explain what that threshold actually is.
In fact, Russia deliberately planned the attack in such a way as to avoid a response. For this reason, the drones directed at Poland were even stripped of explosives. Russia does not want to start a war with NATO. Its goal is to expose the Alliance’s weaknesses to the world and to push against the red lines.
It is also important to recognise that the Kremlin emerged as the winner after the 9-10 September attack, having fully achieved its objectives. And if the West fails to come up with an adequate response, further escalation from Russia will not be long in coming.
Why this was different from previous attacks
Russian drones have entered Polish territory many times before, especially in recent months. Explosions have also been heard there. And not only in Poland. Incidents involving Russian drones became routine for Romania in 2023-24, when the Russians would frequently target Ukraine’s Danube ports, right on the border.
For a long time, officials in Bucharest denied that missiles and drones had crossed their airspace, despite numerous statements from Ukraine’s Air Force. Romania was particularly persistent in denying explosions on its soil, until local residents and journalists who had seen the blasts and their aftermath with their own eyes voiced their outrage at this.
The first violation of NATO’s border by a Russian drone actually occurred back in March 2022, when a Soviet-made Strizh drone apparently flew unhindered across all of Hungary and crashed in Zagreb, the capital of Croatia, damaging 40 cars.
But each time, the governments of the affected states insisted that these were accidental, “unintentional” violations of NATO’s airspace and therefore could not be considered attacks against the Alliance.
These explanations were often not entirely truthful. For example, during the attacks on Ukraine’s Danube ports, the Russians deliberately routed the drones and missiles through Romanian territory, where both air defences and trained military personnel are scarce. However, the ultimate target of the attacks was really Ukraine each time.
Now everything is fundamentally different
When 19-20 drones cross the border simultaneously, this cannot be a coincidence. And there could have been more of them, since a significant number of drones were shot down that night by Ukraine’s air force.
Another difference is the seriousness with which the Polish army perceived the incident. The Poles regularly scramble their fighter jets during missile attacks on western Ukraine, but up until now they had not engaged. This time, Poland’s General Staff gave the order for combat use for the first time. The Poles managed to shoot down some of the drones.
Because of this, they had to close their airspace and suspend operations at four airports, including Warsaw’s busiest.
Will NATO invoke Article 5 on collective defense?
The commitment to collective defence is the core essence and meaning of NATO: an attack on one member is an attack on all. Yet in past incidents the question of collective defence never arose, because Poland and Romania insisted they saw no evidence of deliberate Russian actions directed against them.
The attack on Poland on the night of 9-10 September was certainly neither an accident nor a drone malfunction. Moreover, Warsaw officially recognised it as an “act of aggression” against the country in a statement by its General Staff. But does this mean the other member states are obliged to come to its defence? The short answer is no.
And the reason is not simply that the Alliance has no desire to enter into conflict with Russia. The barrier here was that the drone attack on Poland did not reach the threshold required for collective defence.
Article 5 of the NATO Treaty obliges all member states, in the event of an “armed attack” against any member of the Alliance, to “assist the Party so attacked by taking forthwith… such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force”. For this to happen, all NATO members must agree that an “armed attack” has indeed taken place.
But under international law, not every use of force against a state qualifies as an “armed attack”.
For example, during clashes with the so-called Islamic State in 2015 and 2020, including some on its own territory, NATO member Turkey invoked not Article 5 but Article 4, calling for Alliance security consultations. Poland did the same after the Russian drone attacks.
The threshold at which one can speak of an “attack” is blurred, but Russia did everything it could to make sure it did not cross it. What would have to happen for Russia’s actions to qualify as an attack on NATO? At minimum, it would need to be a targeted, deliberate and leadership-sanctioned Russian strike on specific important sites in Poland.
Caption: Services in the vicinity of the crash site of a Russian drone in the village of Olesno, northern Poland, 10 September 2025. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reported that 19 violations of Polish airspace occurred overnight during a Russian attack on Ukraine, with drones repeatedly violating Polish airspace. EPA/ANDRZEJ JACKOWSKI
Updated: September 12, 2025 - 05:29
