Leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland meet after Trump backs a united Ireland

The first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are meeting in Cardiff on 14 September 2026 to discuss closer cooperation, including on constitutional change. John Swinney (SNP), Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru) and Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Féin) are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding as party leaders rather than as government heads; Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald is also attending. It is the first time all three devolved nations have been led by parties that support leaving the United Kingdom.

The summit follows remarks by Prime Minister Andy Burnham that a second Scottish independence vote could be considered if there were a “clear consensus.” Successive UK governments have otherwise treated another independence referendum as off-limits since 2014. Polling cited in recent coverage has shown support for independence at around 47% in Scotland, 32% in Wales and 36% in Northern Ireland.

The talks also come immediately after U.S. President Donald Trump, visiting Ireland on 12–13 September, said he would “love” to see the island unified and that it was “going to happen eventually.” Speaking first in Dublin beside Taoiseach Micheál Martin and then at his Doonbeg golf resort, Trump called putting Northern Ireland and the Republic together “one of the naturals of all time” and a “great feather in everybody’s cap.” He declined to comment on Scottish independence, saying he would “save that for another day.” Unionist politicians criticised the intervention; Martin described the reaction as an overreaction.

Scotland’s 2014 vote remains the central precedent. On 18 September 2014, voters were asked: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” The result was 2,001,926 No (55.3%) to 1,617,989 Yes (44.7%). Turnout reached 84.6%, the highest for a nationwide Scottish vote since women gained the franchise. Glasgow, Dundee, North Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire voted Yes; most other areas, including Edinburgh, voted No. Sixteen- and 17-year-olds were eligible for the first time. Westminster has since argued that the result settled the question for a generation.

Wales has held devolution votes, not independence votes. A 1979 referendum on a Welsh assembly was rejected by 79.7% to 20.3%. A second referendum on 18 September 1997 passed narrowly (50.3% Yes) and led to the National Assembly for Wales. A 2011 referendum then approved full law-making powers in devolved areas. Plaid Cymru has long pledged an independence referendum if it secures a Senedd majority; no such vote has been held.

Northern Ireland’s framework is different. The only border poll took place in 1973: 98.9% of those who voted chose to remain in the UK, but turnout was 58.7% after a nationalist boycott. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement referendum passed with 71.1% Yes in Northern Ireland (and 94.4% in the Republic). Under the Northern Ireland Act 1998, the Secretary of State must call a border poll if it appears likely a majority would vote for Irish unity; none has been held since 1973. Any change also requires a matching vote in the Republic.

The Cardiff talks therefore sit against a mixed record: one high-turnout independence vote that rejected leaving the UK, a series of narrower devolution votes in Wales, and a legally distinct “principle of consent” mechanism in Northern Ireland. Whether the new coordination produces actual referendums still depends on Westminster, public opinion, and the legal tests already set out in statute.

Caption: A handout photo made available by the Government Information Service of Irish Taoiseach Micheal Martin (L) meeting US President Donald Trump at Farmleigh House in Dublin, Ireland, 12 September 2026. The US president is on a two-day visit to Ireland, including a visit to his golf course in Doonbeg. EPA/GOVERNMENT INFORMATION SERVICE/HANDOUT