Kyiv fears Trump may derail NATO’s ‘irreversible’ membership pledge

As the NATO summit in The Hague approaches, preparations are intensifying. The summit’s primary focus, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump, is to secure increased defence spending from European allies. However, Ukraine’s role and aspirations, particularly regarding NATO membership, remain critical yet precarious.

Kyiv fears that the momentum toward its NATO accession, cemented by the 2024 Washington Summit’s “irreversible” membership path declaration, could be undermined. With careful strategy, Ukraine can leverage this summit to advance its interests despite a constrained program and shifting political dynamics.

A streamlined summit with limited Ukrainian access

The Hague summit, set for 24-25 June, has been significantly scaled back to accommodate Trump’s preferences. Initially planned as a three-day event, it has been reduced to a single day, plus an opening dinner. This compression eliminates joint meetings with partners, including the Ukraine-NATO Council, leaving President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other non-NATO leaders with limited formal engagement. Zelenskyy is invited only to the 24 June dinner, leaving 25 June – when NATO leaders meet with Trump – without a clear role for him.

This presents a challenge for Ukraine’s Presidential Office and Foreign Ministry. Returning to Kyiv after bilateral meetings is impractical, especially with a potential EU summit in Brussels the following day. Instead, Ukraine should think creatively to maximize its presence and influence.

Leveraging the NATO Public Forum

One untapped opportunity lies in the NATO Public Forum, a parallel event hosting security experts during the summit. Traditionally, Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, has represented Ukraine at this forum. However, Kyiv should break with precedent and propose a dedicated panel featuring Zelenskyy. This move would position Ukraine as the forum’s focal point, making Zelenskyy its headliner and amplifying his message through media coverage. It would allow him to convey Ukraine’s priorities – security, NATO aspirations, and resilience against Russian aggression- directly to influential experts and indirectly to summit leaders.

This approach has multiple benefits. It sidesteps U.S. influence over the summit’s official agenda, as the Public Forum operates independently. It also ensures Ukraine’s narrative dominates discussions, countering any Russian-leaning arguments within the expert community, which often leans toward realpolitik compromises. Zelenskyy’s participation, including answering questions, would underscore Ukraine’s resolve and challenge perceptions that such forums are beneath a president’s stature.

Influencing the Summit Declaration

The summit’s final declaration, expected to be concise, will address only three issues, including peace in Ukraine. However, negotiations over its wording are ongoing, and consensus remains elusive. Kyiv’s ambitions for NATO membership face a delicate situation. The Washington Summit’s “irreversible” membership path remains in force, reaffirmed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Yet, Trump’s public stance against Ukraine’s rapid integration could jeopardize this progress.

Kyiv must avoid pushing for a reiteration of the Washington formula in the declaration. Sources at NATO headquarters indicate that Ukraine’s insistence on explicit membership language could backfire. At best, it might result in a refusal, wasting diplomatic capital. At worst, allies might agree to a diluted formulation, effectively replacing the Washington commitment and weakening Ukraine’s position. Such a decision, made without Kyiv’s input, could lock in a less favorable outcome.

Instead, Ukraine should advocate for a declaration that indirectly reaffirms prior commitments, such as referencing “decisions of previous Alliance summits.” While approval of this phrasing is uncertain, it avoids risking existing gains. More critically, Kyiv should push for two key elements: a strong condemnation of Russia as an aggressor, given its role in necessitating increased defence spending, and explicit mention of support for Ukraine’s Armed Forces and security-related needs. These practical inclusions align with NATO’s readiness to bolster Ukraine’s defence, as outlined in European Pravda’s earlier analysis.

A longer version of this article in Ukrainian can be found here.

Caption: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte gestures as he briefs the media ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting, at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, 04 June 2025. The NATO ministers of defence will meet in Brussels on 5 June. [EPA-EFE/OLIVIER MATTHYS]

Updated: June 7, 2025 - 05:56