Kazakhstan’s pivotal referendum: a new constitution on the horizon

As Kazakhstan prepares for a nationwide referendum today (15 March), voters will decide on adopting a new constitution that promises to reshape the country’s governance framework. The ballot question is straightforward: “Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the mass media on 12 February 2026?” If approved by a simple majority, the document – Kazakhstan’s third since independence in 1991 – would take effect on 1 July, marking a significant evolution in the Central Asian nation’s political system amid shifting global dynamics.

The push for constitutional reform stems from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s vision for modernization, initiated in his 2025 State of the Nation Address. What began as proposals for parliamentary tweaks escalated in early 2026, with Tokayev announcing broader changes on 15 January. A Constitutional Commission, chaired by the president, drafted the text, releasing an initial version for public input on 31 January and the final draft on 12 February. The process has been rapid, with just over a month for public review, leading to over 10,000 polling stations opening domestically and in 62 countries abroad for expatriates. International observers totalling over 300 from 10 groups and 27 countries – will monitor the vote, underscoring Kazakhstan’s intent to demonstrate transparency.

The draft, spanning 96 articles, introduces several structural shifts. It replaces the bicameral parliament (Senate and Mazhilis) with a unicameral Kurultai of about 145 deputies, elected via party lists, aiming to streamline legislation. The vice presidency, abolished in 1996, would be reinstated, potentially aiding succession planning. Kazakh is elevated as the primary state language, with Russian used “alongside” it, reflecting efforts to bolster national identity. Human rights provisions are expanded, explicitly abolishing the death penalty, protecting digital and environmental rights, and affirming freedoms like conscience and privacy. For the first time, the constitution prioritizes science, education, culture, and innovation as state principles, paving the way for technological advancements, including AI and digitalization.

Meeting a group of foreign journalists on Saturday, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Arman Isetov highlighted the reform’s broader context. “Today our country is experiencing a truly historic stage of its development,” he said. “In complex geopolitical conditions, Kazakhstan continues to maintain stable economic growth. According to the results of last year, Kazakhstan’s GDP amounted to 306 billion US dollars, which allowed our country to enter the list of the 50 largest economies in the world this year. The country’s gold reserves stand at 74 billion dollars and total reserves at 139 billion dollars.”

Isetov framed the changes as responsive to global challenges: “At the initiative of the President large-scale transformations are being implemented. The constitutional reform has become a logical continuation of these transformations. The new constitution is a timely response to global challenges and a foundation for the long-term stability of the state.” He emphasized a “people-centered system of governance” based on values like social justice, the rule of law, and sovereignty. “The new Constitution opens the way for technological progress, the development of AI, and comprehensive digitalisation.” Isetov declined questions, citing the “day of silence” on Saturday, when discussions on the referendum are restricted.

While the government portrays the draft as a step toward efficiency and accountability, sectors of civil society and NGOs have raised concerns about the expedited timeline.

Foreign diplomats in Astana offered nuanced perspectives, suggesting Tokayev’s moves align with a volatile international environment. One quipped that the “world order was changing much faster than the new constitution was being adopted,” implying the reforms equip the president with stronger tools amid tensions involving Russia, China, and the U.S.-Iran conflict.

At a roundtable hosted by cfive.org, described as a “next-generation intellectual platform,” U.S. experts praised Tokayev’s strategic positioning. Ralph Winnie, Vice President of the Eurasia Center in Washington, argued that by emphasizing transparency in the new constitution and joining Trump’s Board of Peace, Tokayev has gained influence with the U.S. administration.

“Tokayev has won the U.S. President’s ear and that’s huge in terms of investment opportunities,” Winnie said, adding that Kazakhstan has become “the envy of Central Asia” through this rapprochement.

Wesley Alexander Hill, assistant director of the U.S. Trade and Investment Center, echoed this: “Astana was doing a pretty good job in navigating superpowers and regional powers like Russia, China, and Iran.” He highlighted economic ties, noting U.S. interest in Kazakhstan’s resources amid global supply chain shifts.

The reported rapprochement with the U.S. doesn’t seem to be a concern for Brussels. Alberto Turkstra, project director at Belgium-based Diplomatic World, acknowledged the U.S. edge but stressed coexistence: “The EU approach with Kazakhstan can coexist with it.” He cited Brussels-Astana agendas on trade and energy but regretted delays in visa liberalization. “It’s up to the EU private sector to navigate the bureaucratic corridors and make sure Europe stays a key partner for Kazakhstan,” Turkstra said.

Analytically, the referendum reflects Kazakhstan’s navigation of internal reforms and external pressures. In a region facing economic volatility and geopolitical flux, these changes aim to foster stability and efficiency in governance.

Regarding the expected results, Mukhtar Yerman, the Secretary of the Central Election Commission, said they should be expected early on Monday, rather than after the voting closes at 8 p.m.

“The morning is wiser than the evening”, he said, using a widespread proverb across many Slavic-speaking countries and cultures, with deep roots in Russian folklore.

The 2022 Kazakh constitutional referendum, held on 5 June 2022, resulted in 77% votes in favour, at a turnout of 68%. However, experts caution that each referendum must be viewed in its own distinct context.

Caption: Children wait while their mother casts her vote in the polling station of the village of Qosshy, at some 30 km. from Astana. [Photo: Georgi Gotev]