EditKazakhstan’s constitutional referendum: Tokayev reaffirms stability amid global tensions
First results show an expected victory of supporters of the new constitution, the figure of 86.7% being announced during the night, according to exit polls
As Kazakhstan’s nationwide referendum on adopting a new constitution was in full swing on Sunday, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev cast his vote in Astana, using the occasion to address key concerns about the country’s political future and its place in a turbulent world.
When the President spoke, preliminary turnout figures had just surpassed the required 50% threshold by early afternoon – thus the vote was deemed valid, paving the way for potential adoption of what Tokayev described as a “timely response to global challenges.”
First results show an expected victory of supporters of the new constitution, the figure of 86.7% being announced during the night, according to exit polls. The turnout was announced at 70.98%. Final results are expected within seven days.
The referendum, the second in four years, asked voters to endorse a comprehensive new constitution drafted in just over a month. Published on 12 February, the 96-article document proposes shifting from a bicameral parliament to a unicameral Kurultai, reinstating the vice presidency, elevating Kazakh as the primary state language, and prioritizing innovation, AI, and digitalization. If passed, it would take effect on 1 July, marking Kazakhstan’s third constitution since independence and aiming to foster long-term stability in a region buffeted by economic and geopolitical pressures.
Tokayev’s comments during a post-vote interaction with journalists provided insight into his strategic thinking. Dispelling rumours of an early presidential election—fuelled by speculation that the new constitution might reset term limits – he firmly stated that the next presidential vote would occur as scheduled in 2029.
“There is no need to hold early presidential elections,” he told reporters, emphasizing continuity under the single seven-year term rule established in 2022. This reassurance comes amid whispers that the reforms could indirectly extend his influence, though the draft maintains the term limit without explicit resets.
Addressing criticism of the rushed drafting process, Tokayev defended the timeline as necessary in a fast-changing world. “The world is changing rapidly, and we must adapt,” he said, pointing to global instability as justification for swift action. He also touched on Kazakhstan’s decision to join U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, framing it as a pragmatic move to enhance international standing and attract investments.
“This participation opens doors for cooperation and underscores our commitment to peace-building,” Tokayev noted, highlighting recent economic gains, including a 2025 GDP of $306 billion that propelled Kazakhstan into the world’s top 50 economies.
The bad example of a weak president
Perhaps most intriguingly, Tokayev weighed in on the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, commending Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for his apologies to Gulf states amid attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. However, he acknowledged Pezeshkian’s limited authority: “There is a president who formally is the head of state, but he doesn’t decide.”
This remark, delivered on referendum day, carries implicit resonance with Kazakhstan’s own history of power transitions. Tokayev explicitly warned against “double leadership,” referencing the January 2022 unrest – sparked by fuel price hikes and underlying grievances – that led to over 200 deaths and his consolidation of power from predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev.
“We must avoid any form of dual power to ensure stability,” he stressed, positioning the new constitution as a safeguard against such divisions.
Turnout figures released throughout the day showed steady participation, with regional variations reflecting lingering sensitivities. Almaty – the epicenter of the 2022 protests – recorded notably low engagement, at turnout of just under 33%, underscoring pockets of skepticism or disengagement in urban centers. International observers from the OSCE, CIS, and TURKPA praised the process’s organization, though some noted the short campaign period limited debate.
If approved, the new constitution would trigger an institutional reset. The current parliament would dissolve on 1 July, with President Tokayev required to announce elections for the unicameral Kurultai within one month – by early August. Those polls must occur within two months of the announcement, likely in late August or early September 2026. This timeline would allow for electing around 145 deputies via party lists, streamlining governance but potentially reshaping the political landscape amid Tokayev’s emphasis on efficiency.
Tokayev’s remarks blend optimism with caution, portraying the reforms as essential for responding to external threats – from energy disruptions due to regional conflicts to broader superpower rivalries – while reinforcing domestic unity. The referendum’s outcome could solidify Tokayev’s vision of a “people-centered” state, prioritizing sovereignty, technology, and rule of law – at the same time navigating the “black swans” in the unpredictable global lake.
Caption: The President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev answered journalistic questions after casting his vote for the constitutional referendum. [Akorda]
Updated: March 16, 2026 - 02:16
