Jet fuel shortage looms as U.S.-Iran talks collapse and Hormuz remains blocked

Just 24 hours after high-level U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without agreement, Europe’s airports are staring down a potential systemic shortage of jet fuel that could disrupt the peak summer travel season.

Diplomats in Islamabad described “mood swings” during the talks, and both sides have pledged to uphold the ceasefire for now. Yet the core disagreements – nuclear weapons and Hormuz control – remain unresolved. A return to full hostilities would slam the door on any near-term relief.

Airports Council International (ACI) Europe warned the European Commission on 9 April that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume “in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks,” a full-blown crisis for EU aviation will become reality.

The timing could hardly be worse. The fragile two-week ceasefire agreed on 7 April – meant to pause a six-week war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February – now hangs by a thread. Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since the conflict erupted, choking the route that normally carries about 20% of global energy supplies and roughly 40-50% of Europe’s jet fuel imports.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, left Pakistan on Sunday after 21 hours of negotiations with Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. “The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States,” Vance said, citing Iran’s refusal to provide an “affirmative commitment” against developing nuclear weapons.

Iranian officials countered that U.S. demands were “excessive,” particularly on Hormuz. Tehran wants to retain control of the strait and collect transit fees; Washington insists on unrestricted passage for global shipping. A handful of supertankers slipped through on 11 April – the first since the ceasefire – but hundreds more remain trapped in the Gulf, according to shipping data.

For European airports, the blockade is not an abstract geopolitical drama. The Gulf region – primarily Kuwait and Saudi Arabia – has supplied nearly half of the continent’s jet fuel in recent years. No significant cargoes have reached Europe from the Gulf since late February. European refineries cannot ramp up kerosene production fast enough to compensate, and alternative sources (the U.S. supplied just 3% pre-war) are already stretched.

ACI Europe Director General Olivier Jankovec laid it out plainly in his letter to EU commissioners for transport and energy: “At this stage, we understand that if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume… systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.” The group represents more than 600 airports and has flagged “increasing concerns” ahead of the busy summer tourism period.

The pain is already visible. Jet fuel prices in Europe have roughly doubled since pre-war levels, hitting records above $1,800 per tonne. Seven Italian airports have begun restricting fuel access. Airlines have quietly started trimming schedules, imposing fuel surcharges and raising fares. Ryanair and other low-cost carriers have warned of potential capacity cuts into May and June.

Commercial inventories offer limited breathing room. Argus Media estimates, based on Eurostat data, suggest stocks could last three months in the UK, four in Portugal, five in Hungary, and longer in France and Germany – but these figures assume no further escalation and do not account for the summer demand surge. Europe’s just-in-time refining and logistics system, already strained by post-Russia sanctions shifts, has little slack.

‘May is going to be very difficult’

Unlike crude oil, where Europe has diversified sources and IEA-coordinated emergency releases, jet fuel is a refined middle distillate with fewer substitutes. Asia is hoarding Gulf supplies where possible, and China maintains export curbs. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, tanker voyages from Kuwait to Rotterdam take six weeks. “May is going to be very difficult because you do not have the capability to replace the lost volumes,” said Kpler senior oil analyst George Shaw.

The economic stakes are enormous. Aviation supports millions of jobs across Europe and underpins tourism, a sector still recovering from earlier shocks. ACI Europe warns that reduced connectivity would deliver “harsh” economic impacts on communities and the wider bloc. Heathrow, Frankfurt, Schiphol and other hubs could face rationing, cancellations and longer queues if the crisis deepens.

Brussels is now under pressure to act. ACI has called for an urgent EU-wide mapping of jet fuel availability, identification of alternative suppliers, assessment of strategic reserves and even collective purchasing. The European Commission’s oil coordination group met this week but, as Jankovec noted, there is currently no centralised monitoring of aviation kerosene stocks.

Caption: Illustrative photo: Lufthansa airplanes are parked at the Munich International Airport during a Lufthansa strike in Munich, Germany, 10 April 2026. EPA/ANNA SZILAGYI