Israel-Iran air war intensifies as Europe pushes diplomacy and Trump delays U.S. decision

The air war between Israel and Iran entered its second week on Friday, with Russian President Vladimir Putin offering to mediate talks to de-escalate the conflict, while President Donald Trump said a decision on potential U.S. involvement would come within two weeks.

European officials, meanwhile, sought to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, though analysts suggest U.S. action, rather than EU mediation, holds the key to halting the war.

Israel launched attacks on Iran last Friday, citing the need to prevent its longtime enemy from developing nuclear weapons. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes, insisting its nuclear program is peaceful. The Human Rights Activists News Agency reports 639 deaths in Iran, including military leaders and nuclear scientists. Israel claims at least 24 civilians were killed in Iranian missile attacks. These figures could not be independently verified.

Israel has targeted Iran’s nuclear sites, missile capabilities, and sought to destabilize Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s government, according to Western and regional officials. “Are we targeting the downfall of the regime? That may be a result, but it’s up to the Iranian people to rise for their freedom,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday.

Iran claims its strikes target Israeli military and defence sites, though a hospital and civilian areas have also been hit. Israel accused Iran of using cluster munitions to deliberately target civilians, a claim Iran’s U.N. mission has not addressed.

European foreign ministers from Britain, France, and Germany, along with the EU’s foreign policy chief, planned to meet Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Geneva on Friday to push for de-escalation. “Now is the time to stop the grave scenes in the Middle East and prevent a regional escalation that would benefit no one,” said British Foreign Minister David Lammy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping, condemned Israel’s actions and called for de-escalation, with Putin offering to mediate talks, the Kremlin said Thursday. Analysts see Putin’s offer as a bid to assert Russia’s influence, though its success hinges on both parties’ willingness to engage, which remains uncertain given the entrenched positions.

In Washington, Lammy met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to discuss a possible deal. Witkoff has held multiple talks with Araqchi, sources say. Trump has oscillated between threatening Iran with strikes, including “bunker buster” bombs to target underground nuclear sites, and urging a return to nuclear talks paused amid the conflict. The White House reiterated Thursday that Trump would decide on U.S. involvement within two weeks, though his frequent use of “two weeks” as a flexible timeframe suggests no firm commitment.

Death to Khamenei?

The statement by an Israeli minister calling for the death of Khamenei introduces a significant complication to the prospects of diplomacy in the ongoing Israel-Iran air war.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated on 19 June, while visiting the site of an Iranian missile strike in Holon, that “a dictator like Khamenei, who heads a country like Iran and has made the destruction of the State of Israel his declared goal […] should no longer continue to exist.”

Unlike the Israeli minister, Trump has not explicitly endorsed targeting Iran’s supreme leader or pursuing regime change. His public statements, as reported, oscillate between threats of military action and urging Iran to resume nuclear talks.

Trump’s delay and the diplomatic window

Trump’s two-week timeline does not explicitly open the door to diplomacy but keeps it ajar. Meanwhile EU mediation, despite its urgency, is unlikely to be the decisive factor. The EU lacks the military or economic clout to compel either side, and its role is more symbolic than substantive. The U.S., as Israel’s primary ally and a global superpower, holds greater sway. If Trump opts for diplomacy the war could be halted. Alternatively, U.S. military involvement or continued support for Israel’s campaign could prolong the conflict, as Iran shows no signs of backing down without significant pressure.

Iran faces one of its greatest external threats since the 1979 revolution, but a direct challenge to its regime would likely require a popular uprising. Activists like Atena Daemi, who spent six years in prison before leaving Iran, say mass unrest is unlikely under current conditions.

“How are people supposed to pour into the streets? In such horrifying circumstances, people are solely focused on saving themselves, their families, their compatriots, and even their pets,” she said.

With agencies, edited by g.g.

Caption: A handout satellite image made available by Maxar Technologies shows the damaged Arak heavy water reactor facility following Israeli airstrikes in Arak, Iran, 19 June 2025. EPA/MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES HANDOUT