Is waiting for Berlin to “finish off” Zagreb a wise policy for Podgorica?

Dissatisfaction is growing in Zagreb because there are no concrete answers, and especially no concrete actions, from Podgorica aimed at resolving the open issues between the two states, writes Darko Šuković

Darko Šuković is the chief editor of EUalive’s partner in Montenegro AntenaM.

It is practically impossible to obtain an honest official answer from the relevant authorities on the question in the title. Unofficial information from credible sources and public messages – both direct and indirect – coming from Croatia, however, give the question legitimacy and meaning.

Multiple well-informed sources have confirmed to AntenaM that dissatisfaction is growing in Zagreb because there are no concrete answers, and especially no concrete actions, from Podgorica aimed at resolving the open issues between the two states.

The list of problems that need to be solved is no secret. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković enumerated them after meeting his Montenegrin counterpart Milojko Spajić in early June in Tivat:

“We place emphasis on compensation for camp prisoners, finding missing persons, prosecuting war crimes, returning confiscated property to the Croatian minority in Montenegro and the training ship Jadran, a final solution to the maritime border issue, and the permanent preservation of the memorial plaque erected in Morinj,” Plenković wrote on X.

The same demands were repeated last week by Croatia’s Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs, with the message that Zagreb has already shown enough patience and that “resolving Montenegro’s open issues with Croatia is necessary for the completion of negotiations with the EU.”

Although indirect, the message from Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlić Radman during a meeting with his Albanian counterpart in Tirana – that Albania, thanks to its own results and reforms, has advanced the furthest among all candidate countries for EU membership – is a clear warning to Montenegro.

Where did the communication between Podgorica and Zagreb, which for a time seemed encouraging, get stuck? Why have the activities of Foreign Minister Ervin Ibrahimović, who was until recently very active on this topic, dried up?

Our sources are practically unanimous in their assessment of how Zagreb views the diplomatic slowdown in Podgorica. In Croatia there is a strong feeling that Spajić’s government has chosen the tactic of leaving Chapter 31 until the very end, calculating that the key players in the EU – above all Germany – will then press official Zagreb to yield and allow that chapter to be closed as well.

This, understandably, does not suit our neighbours at all.

This was confirmed by the former mayor of Split, chairman of the parliamentary Foreign Policy Committee and Member of the European Parliament, Andro Krstulović Opara. He told Zagreb’s N1:

“Be sure that MPs from southern Croatia, among whom I am one, will not support that ratification if we find ourselves in that situation. I have told this to my German colleagues. They understood that this is not a bilateral issue but, above all, a matter of Chapter 31, which clearly requires good-neighbourly relations, including the prosecution of war crimes. This is a universal issue.”

It is clear, therefore, that in Croatia Montenegro’s obligations are also viewed as a test of its readiness to demonstrate, in practice, acceptance of European values as a condition for EU membership. Part of this “package” is the careful profiling of certain actors in the current Montenegrin government.

Krstulović Opara stresses that for his like-minded colleagues – and there are definitely not few of them, either in parliament or on the wider Croatian political scene – it is unacceptable to sign Montenegro’s accession treaty with the EU if, after next year’s elections, Andrija Mandić remains in high position.

“I will say it openly: the Speaker of Parliament, Mr Mandić, who has openly stated that he took part in the military activities around Dubrovnik – and I will call it by its real name: the aggression against southern Croatia – cannot be one of the protagonists who will lead Montenegro into the European Union.”

Analysis: How Montenegro’s Speaker is helping Serbia undermine its EU bid

The latest reconstruction of Spajić’s government, as well as increasingly brutal anti-Croatian statements by certain pro-Serbian politicians in Montenegro, do not contribute to an atmosphere of agreement. On the contrary, they increasingly provoke resistance among the Croatian public, which until recently was not particularly interested in relations with Montenegro, to any concessions to Podgorica.

Despite this – or precisely because of it – Milan Knežević only intensifies his anti-Croatian narrative. At this very moment the NSD is nominating Jovan Vučurović as a minister. Defence Minister Dragan Krapović uses every mention of the ship Jadran for gaffes or statements that suggest an unyielding position that the vessel is where it belongs.

Questions from AntenaM about the composition of the Commission that will represent Montenegro in the negotiations over the Jadran, sent more than once to government addresses, remain unanswered.

Several of AntenaM’s sources claim that work has been under way in Brussels for some time on a draft agreement between Montenegro and Croatia. That alleged document is supposed to help resolve the listed open issues. In addition, again allegedly, it would contain a clear condemnation of the aggression against Croatia in the first half of the 1990s as part of Belgrade’s Greater Serbia project.

Other interlocutors, however, categorically claim that no such thing exists, nor would Zagreb agree to that kind of mediation. On the contrary, they assure us that everything depends on Podgorica and its readiness to meet Croatia’s demands — and that the increasingly obvious gamble that others will finish the job for Montenegro is only wasting Podgorica’s precious time and strengthening the Croatian government’s determination to insist on the complete fulfilment of Montenegro’s obligations.

Commissioner Marta Kos recently visited Zagreb with the intention of securing faster resolution of the open issues with Montenegro. According to Antena M’s information, that mission produced no tangible result. On the contrary, the Slovenian politician was reportedly told clearly that the Croatian government is dissatisfied with the inactivity of the Montenegrin side in recent times and that, if Montenegro is truly committed to closing Chapter 31, it must move from promises to concrete actions.

In Zagreb, one of our interlocutors says, they perfectly understand the situation in Montenegro – including who would most like to see Podgorica slip off the fast track to Brussels. But to ensure that does not happen, and that everything turns out as Podgorica, Brussels and Zagreb would all wish, the greatest responsibility still lies with Prime Minister Milojko Spajić and his government.

The article in Montenegrin by Darko Šuković, the chief editor of EUalive’s partner in Montenegro AntenaM, can be found here.

Caption: Jadran is a sailing ship for basic naval training built for the Yugoslav Royal Navy and currently in Montenegrin Navy service. Croatia is demanding the return of Jadran, which it regards as its rightful property. [Wikipedia, public property]