Is Bulgaria heading toward a President chosen by the Prime Minister?

While Europe watches whether Rumen Radev is becoming yet another sovereigntist leader in the EU, he may achieve the greatest shift in Bulgaria’s political model without changing a single comma in the Constitution. A victory for a candidate backed by the ruling majority in the presidential election would consolidate power around the prime minister and alter the institutional balance on which the parliamentary republic is built.

The presidential election is expected to take place on 25 October.

Radev, who has served two terms as president and is now prime minister, has a realistic chance of effectively “appointing” the next head of state through the support of his party, Progressive Bulgaria. The formation won 44.6% of the vote in the April elections and has decided to back the candidacy of Iliana Iotova, Radev’s former vice-president. She assumed the presidency after he stepped down six months ago to run in the parliamentary elections.

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At first glance this endorsement strengthens her position, yet it also ties her result to public approval of the government. If that approval declines in the autumn – when the election coincides with the submission of the 2027 budget – it will also affect votes for Iotova.

Who stands against Iotova

The Bulgarian Socialist Party was the first to declare support for Iotova, who built her political career on the left. She has announced that she will run as a candidate nominated by an initiative committee – the formula preferred for majoritarian elections in Bulgaria.

GERB has not yet fielded a candidate. Leader Boyko Borissov continues to propose a joint centre-right nomination to Continue the Change (PP) and Democratic Bulgaria (DB), but all such overtures have been rejected. MP Vladislav Goranov, who is sanctioned under the Magnitsky Act for corruption, has indicated that the party will most likely not put forward its own candidate. According to Prime Minister Radev, this behaviour is understandable: after its weak results on 19 April, “GERB is looking for someone to cling to.”

PP, DB and the civic platform Forum for Democratic Action are expected to support former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov. Although his nomination appears almost predetermined, he has not yet formally announced his candidacy. His decision not to teach at the American University in Blagoevgrad (AUBG) the autumn semester, when the campaign will be under way, is widely seen as a signal of intent.

Another potential contender who has tentatively confirmed he may enter as a “civic nomination” is Professor Daniel Valchev, dean of Bulgaria’s oldest law faculty at Sofia University. Before his academic career, Valchev served as education minister in the left-centre Triple Coalition government and was part of the legal team of Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha. His biography also includes a business partnership with former secret-service general Lyuben Gotsev, one of the most influential informal figures of Bulgaria’s transition period.

At present, only the ruling majority is entering the campaign with an officially announced candidate and clear political backing.

What the first polls show

According to the Global Metrics agency, a Progressive Bulgaria candidate enjoys the highest initial support among those who say they will vote in the autumn presidential election – 39.7%, followed by a PP-DB contender at 13.3% and a GERB-SDS candidate at 11.5%.

Data on potential electoral support also place Iotova in the strongest starting position. Asked for whom they would vote, 30% of respondents said they would definitely support Iliana Iotova, while another 20.2% said they would rather vote for her. An additional 18.4% are still undecided. Other potential candidates lag significantly: Andrey Gyurov has a combined 23% certain or probable support, Daniel Valchev 18%, and former caretaker agriculture minister Ivan Hristanov 12%.

The new balance of power

The 1991 Constitution provides for the direct election of a president who is meant to act as a balancer and unifier of the nation, not as an extension of the parliamentary majority.

In Bulgaria’s democratic history, presidents have repeatedly played the role of a corrective to those in power. Head of state Petar Stoyanov (1997–2002) supported the protests that brought down the BSP cabinet after hyperinflation and bank failures. Rosen Plevneliev (2012–2017) stood behind civic discontent against the Oresharski government. Rumen Radev himself (2017–January 2026) turned the presidency into a centre of protests against Boyko Borissov’s third government and the “captured state.”

If Iotova wins with the backing of the ruling majority, one and the same political force will control the government, hold a parliamentary majority and install the head of state. In the absence of a strong opposition, this would concentrate unprecedented institutional resources around a single leader’s project.

The right of veto, referrals to the Constitutional Court and public pressure on the government would struggle to become instruments directed against the political force to which the head of state owes his or her election.

The consequences go beyond the weakening of institutional checks. The president signs the decrees appointing ambassadors and the senior military command, appoints members of key bodies and influences personnel decisions in the judiciary through constitutionally defined powers. If the head of state and the government belong to the same political project, the presidency would find it difficult to serve as an independent filter for such appointments.

This is especially important in foreign policy. Both as president and as prime minister, Rumen Radev has taken positions on the war in Ukraine that diverge from the policies of the EU and NATO on support for Kyiv and the strengthening of European security. If the presidency unreservedly backs the government’s line, one of the few internal counterweights in the formulation of foreign policy would disappear.

For Europe the question is Bulgaria’s foreign-policy course. For Bulgaria the stake is whether the ruling majority will still face any institutional corrective.

Caption: Still frame. Iotova sees off Radev from the office of the President after he resigned as President on 20 January 2026 to enter the parliamentary elections race, while according to the constitution she took the role of President [Press centre of the President of Bulgaria]