EditIs a just peace for Ukraine possible?
Trump’s threats, if substantiated, could exploit Russia’s Achilles’ heel: its crumbling economy
Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, a cloud of pessimism has settled over Europe. Many fear that even if Trump secures a peace agreement for Ukraine, it will tilt heavily in Moscow’s favor, sacrificing Kyiv’s sovereignty for a hollow diplomatic victory.
The August 2025 summit in Alaska, where Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin, seemed to confirm these anxieties. Putin emerged emboldened, brushing off Trump’s push for peace with characteristic defiance, while Trump’s aspirations for a Nobel Peace Prize appeared to falter.
Yet, the path to a just peace for Ukraine, though fraught, remains within reach if the West leverages Russia’s vulnerabilities and unites against Putin’s intransigence.
The Alaska summit laid bare the challenges of negotiating with a Kremlin that thrives on brinkmanship. Putin, hosted on American soil for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, offered little beyond vague promises to “explore” peace talks, while doubling down on maximalist demands for Kyiv’s capitulation. Trump, meanwhile, failed to secure even a symbolic ceasefire, a setback that frustrated his vision of brokering a swift resolution. European leaders, alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, expressed scepticism, wary of a deal that might freeze the conflict on Russia’s terms, leaving Ukraine’s territorial integrity in limbo.
Despite this, Trump has not abandoned his pursuit of peace. His recent threats to impose new sanctions on Russia, though met with scepticism due to their lack of detail, signal a potential shift. These threats, if substantiated, could exploit Russia’s Achilles’ heel: its crumbling economy. Beneath Moscow’s bravado lies a stark reality – Western sanctions have already strained Russia’s oil-dependent economy, with inflation soaring and living standards eroding. The Kremlin’s ability to sustain its war machine is waning, a vulnerability the West must seize.
Ukraine, too, faces its own fragility: a dire shortage of recruits to sustain its defence against Russia’s relentless assaults. Putin is betting on Kyiv’s exhaustion, hoping to outlast Ukraine’s resolve with sheer manpower.
But this gamble overlooks Russia’s own precarious position. A concerted Western push, led by Trump’s sanctions and bolstered by European unity, could tip the balance. By targeting Russia’s economic lifelines – its oil and gas revenues, already under pressure – the U.S. and its allies could force Putin to the table. A new round of robust sanctions, as Trump hinted on 7 September, could amplify this pressure, especially after Russia’s devastating drone attack on Kyiv, which damaged the government building and killed four, including a mother and her infant. Such atrocities provide ample justification for decisive action.
The European Union has a critical role to play. A unified 19th sanctions package, synchronized with U.S. efforts, would send an unequivocal message to Putin: the post-World War II order will not bend to autocratic ambitions. Western resolve, rooted in shared democratic values, could compel Russia toward a peace deal that, while imperfect, preserves Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.
Will Trump seize this moment, or will he falter under Putin’s shadow? Whispers of Russian “kompromat” loom large, with some speculating that Moscow might leak compromising information to undermine Trump’s presidency. These rumours, whether myth or reality, present a stark choice. If Trump imposes stringent sanctions, as he has signalled, it would dispel notions of him as a Russian asset and reaffirm his commitment to global stability.
Conversely, if he hesitates, the spectre of Russian influence will grow, casting doubt on his intentions. The stakes could not be higher.
Caption: US President Donald Trump (R) welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meet to negotiate at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, USA, 15 August 2025. EPA/GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL
Updated: September 8, 2025 - 12:19
