Is a breakthrough on the Cyprus issue possible by next summer?

The first meeting between President of the Republic of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman last Thursday at the UN compound in the old Nicosia airport unfolded in a notably warmer atmosphere than many had expected. Their cordial embrace and the careful avoidance of provocative statements before and after the encounter sent a positive signal, especially when contrasted with the toxic climate often generated by public remarks from the former Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar.

Still, comments by Christodoulides on Turkish guarantees last Friday and Erhürman’s subsequent reactions revealed how fragile this emerging climate remains, with suspicion lingering beneath the surface. For now, observers cautiously note that an improved tone may prove helpful only once discussions move to substantive issues.

Even so, the leaderships’ statements have prompted speculation that something may indeed be shifting compared to the last five fruitless years. Several developments stand out:

First, the negotiators of both sides are returning to regular, structured meetings – a point reflected in the UN communiqué.

Second, Christodoulides reiterated the Greek Cypriot readiness to resume talks from where they left off in Crans-Montana in 2017, explicitly referring to the six points of the Guterres Framework.

Third, Erhürman did not invoke “sovereign equality” or the two-state discourse advanced by Ankara and Tatar in recent years; instead, he called for recognition of the convergences already achieved under a federal framework, stressing they must not be reopened.

Fourth, the two leaders agreed to hold a joint meeting with the UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy, María Ángela Holguín – something Tatar had consistently rejected. She arrives on 5 December and will meet Christodoulides on 6 December before convening both leaders together.

Finally, a meeting between Erhürman and the European Commission’s special envoy, Johannes Hahn, now appears likely – another departure from the stance previously adopted by Ankara and Tatar.

A new generation at the table

Both leaders belong to a generation shaped after the conflicts that scarred Cyprus. Erhürman was born in Nicosia in 1970, Christodoulides in Paphos in 1973. Neither experienced the intercommunal violence of 1964 nor the events of 1974. This distance from lived trauma could, in theory, enable a more rational and less emotionally charged approach. They grew up in a Cyprus integrated into European institutions, shaped by modern governance structures and international engagement – elements that may support a more pragmatic outlook.

Yet distance does not automatically translate into deeper understanding. The communities they represent continue to carry the burdens of memory; family narratives remain alive and political structures still reflect older logics. Their generational position offers an opportunity, not a guarantee. Progress will depend on their ability to grasp the sensitivities, fears and red lines that persist on both sides – without being overwhelmed by them.

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The four preconditions

Erhürman insists that four preconditions must be met before substantive negotiations can begin.

The first concerns recognition of Turkish Cypriot political equality – not as a minority, but as a co-founding partner of a united Cyprus. The Greek Cypriot side argues this issue is already settled in the 2014 Anastasiades-Eroğlu agreement, which defines a single international personality and a single sovereignty shared equally by Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. This formulation defused debates over “evolution” versus “virgin birth” and explicitly excluded a two-state model. Revisiting it, Greek Cypriots warn, risks returning to the rhetoric introduced by Tatar in 2021.

The second precondition relates to a clear timeline. Negotiations, Erhürman says, must not be open-ended but embedded in a realistic framework shaped by broader regional dynamics: Turkey’s talks with the U.S. and EU over SAFE, developments in the Middle East, the May 2026 Greek Cypriot parliamentary elections, the end of Cyprus’s EU presidency in June 2026, and the expiry of Antonio Guterres’s mandate as UN Secretary General later that year. An eight-month horizon, with an intensive final round in mid-summer, is viewed by some as feasible if preparatory work advances quickly.

The third precondition requires a results-oriented process that avoids reopening issues already agreed. This includes the Geneva 2017 map, property arrangements and citizenship quotas for Greeks and Turks in Cyprus.

The fourth – considered the most difficult, demands that failure must not return the Turkish Cypriots to the current status quo. In essence, Erhürman wants guarantees from the UN and EU that, should the Greek Cypriot side be held responsible for a collapse, a discussion on the future of the Turkish Cypriots would follow. The Greek Cypriot side argues this approach implicitly serves a two-state logic. Yet parts of the international community appear closer to the Turkish Cypriot position, recalling that Greek Cypriot leaderships were perceived as unconstructive in 2004 and in 2017.

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Confidence-building or mistrust?

As part of confidence-building measures, Erhürman submitted ten proposals aimed mainly at improving daily life for Turkish Cypriots and many settlers’ families – a focus that drew criticism from some Turkish Cypriot media. While such measures could ease the atmosphere ahead of a new negotiating round, they are insufficient in themselves to unlock substantive talks.

The limits of the current goodwill became evident just 24 hours after last week’s meeting. Erhürman objected to Christodoulides’s public remarks – delivered at a medal ceremony in the presence of Greece’s President Konstantinos Tasoulas – insisting that a solution is impossible without the withdrawal of Turkish troops and the abolition of guarantees. According to Erhürman, the two leaders had agreed to refrain from public statements in order to maintain a constructive climate, and this understanding was violated.

If such an agreement existed, the comment should have been avoided. Yet the episode also illustrates how sensitive Erhürman remains to anything touching the broader role of Turkey – and how quickly trust can evaporate just as talks appear possible.

The original article in Greek published by our partner Politis can be found here.

Caption: Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides attends a press conference with the German chancellor at the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, 14 November 2025. Christodoulides’ visit aims to present to Merz the main pillars of Cyprus’s EU presidency program, including EU defence, border management, and support for EU enlargement, particularly in the Western Balkans. Cyprus will assume the six-month rotating Presidency of the EU Council on 1 January 2026. EPA/FILIP SINGER