Ireland’s drama-filled presidential election

Unless something very unexpected happens, the election will see the quiet-spoken, left leaning, non-party and Irish-speaking Catherine Connolly chosen on Friday (24 October) to serve as Ireland’s tenth President, writes Dick Roche.

EUalive’s columnist Dick Roche is a former Irish Minister of State for European Affairs. His columns can be found here.

Ireland goes to the polls on Friday to elect the successor to Michael D. Higgins, Ireland’s ninth President. Higgins, who was elected in 2011 has served two terms, the maximum period allowed by Ireland’s constitution.

Unless something very unexpected happens, the election will see the quiet-spoken, left leaning, non-party and Irish-speaking Catherine Connolly (68) chosen to serve as Ireland’s tenth President – the third woman to hold Ireland’s highest office.

A victory for Connolly will be a defeat for the two parties that lead the current Irish Government Fianna Fail, a member of Renew Europe, and for Fine Gael, part of the EPP. It will represent a major blow for Michael Martin, the Irish prime Minister who is seen as seriously overplaying his hand in the selection of his party’s candidate to contest the election. It will also be a major disappointment for Simon Harris, Ireland’s Foreign Minister and deputy prime minister – at one point it looked as if this election would see Fine Gael win the Irish presidency for the first time in the history of the state.

The election of Catherine Connolly will be a victory for the left in Irish politics. While credit for a win will lie primarily with Catherine Connolly herself, Sinn Fein, after months of what looked like prevarication, decided not to enter a candidate in the election and to join the Connolly campaign will claim ‘a win’.

The election of Catherine Connolly will not immediately change Irish politics, but it will be a further step away from two-party dominance.

The role of Ireland’s President

While sometimes labelled ‘largely ceremonial’ the role of the Irish President is not inconsequential. The President appoints the Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach) on the nomination of the Lower House of Ireland’s Parliament (Dail Eireann). On the nomination of the Taoiseach the President appoints members of the Government and on the advice of the Taoiseach accepts the resignation or termination of Ministerial appointments. The President also appoints members of the judiciary, the Attorney General, the Comptroller and Auditor General and Commissioned Officers of Ireland’s defence forces – again ‘on the advice’ of the Government.

The President also summons or dissolves the Dail on the advice of the Taoiseach. After consultation with the Council of State, the President also can call a meeting of the Dail or of the Irish Senate or both. The President may also refuse to dissolve the Dail in which case the Members of the Dail must nominate an alternative government.

All legislation passed by the Irish Parliament must be signed by the President before coming into effect. The President has the power to refer legislation that comes for signature, to the Supreme Court where there is a concern that the Bill may be incompatible with or in conflict with the Irish Constitution. The President must first consult with the Council of State before taking such action. In specific circumstances the President can decide that proposed legislation is of such national importance that it should be referred to the people in a referendum.

Overall the President’s role is to represent the people of Ireland. This role has been broadly interpreted by President Higgins and by his most recent predecessors. Increasingly the President is seen as ‘speaking for the people’. President Higgins has been particularly outspoken often in ways that caused discomfort for those in government. This approach has chimed with voters and, in particular, with younger voters and is likely to be followed by Catherine Connolly as his successor.

Upsets and surprises

Because of the nature of the office, Irish Presidential elections tend to be short. They focus on the personality of the candidates rather than on policy manifestos.

While previous Irish Presidential campaigns have not been without drama, the 2025 Presidential campaign has taken drama to a new level. The bulk of that drama arose during the nomination process.

To contest a Presidential election a candidate must be an Irish citizen aged 35 or older. Candidates must be nominated by at least 20 members of the houses of the Irish Parliament or by at least four local authorities. An incumbent President may self-nominate.

The three largest political parties in Ireland Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Sinn Fein hold sufficient members in the Irish parliament to nominate a candidate to contest an election. To go forward for election a candidate who does not have the support of one of these three parties– and is not a sitting President – must either ‘find’ 20 members from the Dail or Seanad to support their nomination or get the support of four local authorities – not an easy task.

In mid-July former MEP and EU Commissioner Mairead McGuiness received the Fine Gael party nomination to contest the 2025 election. Ms McGuinness, who sought her party’s nomination to contest the 2011 election, was seen as a very strong contender. Shortly after securing the 2025 nomination McGuiness was forced to withdraw from the contest on medical advice. The Fine Gael party selected Heather Humphreys who had served as a member of the Irish Parliament from 2011 until her retirement in 2024 and who had held a number of Ministerial appointments to replace McGuiness as its candidate.

On 16 July Catherine Connolly, an independent member of Dail Eireann announced that having been promised the support of more than 20 members of the parliament she intended to contest the election.

Deputy Connolly who is on the left of the Irish political spectrum initially qualified as a clinical psychologist. She later took a law degree and went on to become a barrister. Connolly entered the Dail in 2016, elected from the same constituency that President Michael D Higgins previously represented. She served as the deputy speaker of the Dail from 2020 to 2024.

Connolly’s initial nominations came from smaller centre left and left parties and from independent Members of the Dail and Senate. The Labour Party and the Green Party also ‘signed on’ to her presidential campaign. On 20 September Sinn Fein announced that it would not contest the election and that it would support the Connolly campaign.

On 30 August, after months of speculation as to who would be the candidate for Fianna Fail, Ireland’s largest party, Micheal Martin, the Taoiseach and party leader announced that he intended to support Jim Gavin, a former successful manager of Dublin’s Gaelic football team, for the party nomination. The announcement took most people by surprise.

Gavin, while well known in some sporting circles, was not a ‘household name’. He had no experience in politics nor any history with Fianna Fail. His emergence as candidate for the election was very much the personal choice of Micheál Martin. The announcement was seen as an attempt to bypass the party’s selection process with the aim of preventing the former party leader and former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern from entering the election and resurrecting past controversies.

On 9 September Gavin was endorsed as candidate by a secret ballot in the parliamentary party by 41 to 29 votes. Ten days later Mr Gavin submitted his formal nomination papers for the election. Two weeks later, on 5 October after some ‘ropey’ media performances on the campaign, Gavin announced that he was withdrawing from the election following revelations that he owed a former tenant a refund of €3,300 in rent overpaid since the time of the financial crash in 2008 – a revelation that made him essentially unelectable and raised serious questions as to the vetting that had gone into his candidacy.

The timing of the withdrawal after the close of nominations for the election meant that Fianna Fail could not nominate another candidate. While Gavin’s name remains on the ballot paper for Friday’s election the debacle means that Ireland’s largest political party will effectively have failed to contest three presidential elections in a row. This, allied to the manner in which he is seen as essentially having imposed a failed candidate, is likely to have significant political ramifications for Michael Martin and probably for the party itself in the period ahead.

The 2025 campaign also witnessed a sharp reversal of the opening up for the nomination process for Presidential elections that has been evident from 1990 onwards. Each of the three contested Presidential elections since 1990 featured candidates form outside the world of politics who entered the elections via nominations form local authorities. On this occasion only three Councils provided nominations. Fine Gael specifically instructed its local authority members not to support candidate nominations via local authorities.

An attempt by the conservative campaigner Maria Steen to win a nomination to contest the election was also frustrated by the major political parties. Steen, an architect and a barrister, succeeded in getting the support of 18 members of the Irish parliament – two short of the required number for a nomination. The effort to deny Steen a nomination has resulted in a campaign urging voters to “spoil their vote” on election day. Polling suggests that it is likely that the number of spoiled ballots will be significantly higher than normal.

The campaign

As mentioned already, Irish Presidential elections focus on the personality of the candidates rather than on political programmes. In addition to reflecting candidate preference they are also an important bellwether of the nation’s political mood.

Polling in early September as the nomination process was underway suggested unsurprisingly that a very high proportion of those polled had still to decide how they would vote. A poll taken between 4 and 9 September showed 36% of those polled as undecided on candidate choice. Amongst those who had decided Heather Humpherys was favoured by 22 %. Jim Gavin was in second place on 18% with Connolly one point behind on 17%.

In early October, three weeks out from the election, with nominations closed and following the Sinn Fein endorsement of Catherine Connolly polling projected a very different result. Catherine Connolly had moved into a very solid lead with 32% support. Humpherys’ was up one point to 23% and Gavin was trailing at 15% a disastrous position for the Fianna Fail candidate whose inexperience had been demonstrated in debates and media interviews. Almost one third of those polled – 31% had still to decide how and if they would vote.

Polling on behalf of the Irish Times conducted on 12-14 October the midpoint in the election showed Catherine Connolly in an unassailable position in what was now a ‘two horse race’. With Gavin out of the contest, albeit with his name still on the ballot paper the poll showed Connolly favoured by 38% with Humpherys at 20% and Gavin at 5%. The poll showed that 18% intended to either not vote or to spoil their vote – an astonishing protest rate – with a further 18% indicating that they did not know how they would vote. Excluding those the poll suggests an unassailable 28 point lead for Connolly over Humphreys.

The poll also provides an insight into voter feelings about the efforts to block candidates from receiving nominations. A question as to whether Maria Steen should have been facilitated in her efforts to get on the ballot paper showed 45% of respondents agreeing while 24% disagreed.

The poll results also give a measure of the likely fallout for the Taoiseach and his party. Support for Michael Martin was shown as down by 11 points to 33%, Martin’s lowest rating since 2020. The Fianna Fail party support slumped to 17%, down 5 points. The fallout from these numbers could be significant in the coming months..

With the last major television debate concluded and less than 48 hours to run until voting , at the time of writing, it looks highly likely that when the votes are counted on Saturday that Catherine Connolly the soft spoken candidate from the left will become the tenth Irish President. Given the boundaries that surround the Irish Presidency and the candidate’s personality that in itself will not mean an immediate tectonic change in Irish politics but it points to shifts that will trigger soul-searching particularly in the two political parties that have dominated Irish politics since the foundation of the state. When the vote counting finishes on Saturday there will be plenty left to discuss.

Caption: Catherine Connolly meets supporters. X account “Connolly for President”