Iran’s rulers fear doomsday as protests escalate amid heightened foreign military readiness

Iran’s clerical establishment is grappling with a deepening legitimacy crisis as anti-government protests, initially sparked by economic grievances, have rapidly spread across all 31 provinces, drawing international scrutiny and prompting military preparations by the United States and Israel.

The unrest, which erupted in Tehran last month with shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar protesting a plummeting rial, has evolved into broader demonstrations involving young men frustrated with the regime’s priorities. Unlike the 2022-23 protests ignited by Mahsa Amini’s death in custody, these focus less on women’s rights and more on economic despair and foreign policy failures.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reports at least 34 protesters and four security personnel killed, with over 2,200 arrests, underscoring widespread disillusionment with the Shi’ite theocracy.

“The collapse is not just of the rial, but of trust,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C.

Vatanka warns the clerical system’s survival tactics—repression and concessions—are reaching limits. “Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed.”

Authorities have adopted a dual strategy, acknowledging economic protests as legitimate while deploying tear gas against violent clashes. Nearly five decades after the Islamic Revolution, the rulers struggle to align their ideological stance with a youthful population’s demands for normalcy.

“I just want to live a peaceful, normal life … Instead, they (the rulers) insist on a nuclear program, supporting armed groups in the region, and maintaining hostility toward the United States,” said Mina, a 25-year-old jobless graduate from Kuhdasht in Lorestan province.

A former reformist official noted that core pillars like enforced dress codes and foreign policies fail to resonate with those under 30, who comprise nearly half the population. “The younger generation no longer believes in revolutionary slogans — it wants to live freely.”

Protesters chant “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran,” venting anger at Tehran’s support for militants amid a weakened “Axis of Resistance.” Israel’s strikes have decimated proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias, while the ousting of Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 further eroded influence.

Analysts like Ahmad Naghibzadeh predict a “big storm” before March 2026, potentially culminating in the regime’s fall, unlike past cycles.

Intelligence reports suggest Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has an escape plan to Moscow if protests overwhelm security forces, echoing Assad’s flight.

Ex-U.S. NSA John Bolton foresees the regime’s vulnerability intensifying upon Khamenei’s death or amid unrest.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened intervention if protesters are killed, stating “We’re locked and loaded,” following June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

Khamenei vows defiance, but policies appear unravelling. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praises the protests as a “decisive moment.”

Amid fears of escalation, the U.S. and Israel are accelerating military preparations: The IDF is expediting multi-front war plans, including against Iran, while Netanyahu discussed renewed strikes with Trump in December 2025.

Iran’s Defense Council warns of preemptive action against threats.

Heightened tensions prompted Russia to evacuate embassy staff and families from Israel on 6-8 January, with three flights in 24 hours, anticipating potential Iranian retaliation.

Inside Iran, opinions divide on foreign intervention. “Enough is enough. We are poor, isolated and frustrated,” said a 31-year-old from Isfahan, rejecting strikes despite regime criticism.

In Syria, ongoing clashes add to regional instability: Syrian forces recently battled Kurdish SDF in Aleppo’s Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhoods, leading to a ceasefire on 9 January after three days of fighting that displaced residents and highlighted integration challenges.

Former Assad officers in Lebanon are organizing insurgent activities, with Israel warning of Iranian plots to assassinate Syria’s interim president Ahmad al-Sharaa.

With Reuters, edited by g.g.

Caption: A general view from a street in Tehran, Iran, 8 January 2026. Following a sharp decline in the national currency and soaring prices for basic goods, the country is facing a wave of nationwide anti-government protests which has spread to 37 cities across 24 provinces, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH