EditIran war: does Trump have the cards?
If Tehran holds out for months, enduring U.S.-Israeli bombardments while disrupting global oil flows, how long before the President folds?
Ah, the art of the deal – or in this case, the art of the deal-breaker. Cast your mind back to 28 February 2025, when President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the infamous White House meeting. Fast-forward exactly one year, and Trump has dealt himself into a war of his own making – the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran, launched on 28 February 2026. No more chance to blame Joe Biden, this time, he’s in the cockpit, betting the house on regime change in Tehran. But as the bombs fall and oil prices soar past $100 a barrel, the question echoes across the Atlantic: Does Trump hold a winning hand?
In Europe, where the ghosts of past American adventures still linger like unwanted houseguests, opinion is as divided. On one side, there’s grudging admiration for Trump’s audacity. Sure, he’s a “horrible person,” as some mutter over their espressos in Rome or pints in London, but give the man credit: he’s swinging the axe at the head of the Iranian “octopus,” whose tentacles – via proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and militias in Iraq and Syria – have strangled stability across the Middle East for decades.
If successful, this could be Trump’s Berlin Wall moment, toppling a theocratic regime and ushering in a new era of regional freedom, much like 1989’s fall of communism.
Yet, the chorus of doubters is louder, harmonizing on themes of international law and impending doom. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been the most vocal critic, slamming the strikes as illegal and refusing U.S. access to bases, prompting Trump to threaten trade ties.
Surveys across Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK reveal majorities – up to 75% – opposing the war, fearing escalation and a humanitarian catastrophe.
But let’s be honest: the legalese is often a fig leaf for deeper anxieties. Critics whisper that Trump, with his infamous attention span, will tire of the conflict, pull out prematurely, and leave a smoldering mess worse than Iraq or Afghanistan – think power vacuums filled by even nastier extremists, or a fragmented Iran exporting chaos like a bad sequel to the Arab Spring.
At the heart of the uncertainty lies the mullahs’ resilience. Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader, has rallied the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, pledging defiance amid ongoing strikes.
Iran has already fired back, stranding tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, attacking Gulf states, and threatening a “water war” by targeting desalination plants – moves that could ignite energy chaos worldwide, spiking prices and hammering Trump’s economy.
If Tehran holds out for months, enduring U.S.-Israeli bombardments while disrupting global oil flows, how long before Trump folds?
Europe watches nervously: another protracted conflict could mean skyrocketing bills and refugee waves, all without a seat at the decision table – just as with the Ukraine case.
Indeed, Europe’s marginalization in the Middle East is no accident – decades of U.S. dominance have kept the EU on the sidelines, treating it like a well-meaning but meddlesome aunt.
Proximity ensures Europe pays dearly, from disrupted trade to potential terrorist reprisals. So, what’s better for Europe: Trump’s victory, however costly and difficult, dismantling the regime and potentially stabilizing the region? Or his failure, which might spell the end of his chaotic presidency but leave a power vacuum ripe for exploitation? Wishing for an ally’s demise sounds utterly insane – like rooting for the villain in your own spy thriller. But with Trump, the master of unpredictability, who once mused about buying Greenland and now wages war on a whim, insanity feels almost par for the course.
Caption: Protesters rally against the US and Israeli bombing of Iran outside the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 28 February 2026. In a video posted on social media, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to ‘take over your government. It will be yours to take.’ Israel and US military conducted joint strikes targeting multiple locations in Iran in the early hours of 28 February 2026. EPA/JIM LO SCALZO
Updated: March 9, 2026 - 14:45
