Intensifying repressions in Georgia unmask the power’s weakness

In recent weeks, the Georgian authorities have sharply escalated repression. Six opposition party leaders were arrested within days, all of whom were later sentenced to 7 or 8 months in prison. Two other opposition politicians are still awaiting sentencing.

Formally, the reason for the arrest was their refusal to appear at a meeting of the “temporary parliamentary commission”, which is investigating offenses committed during the years of the previous government – the United National Movement party of Mikheil Saakashvili.

Refusing to testify to this commission is a principled position of most opposition forces, as they do not recognise the results of last year’s parliamentary elections as legitimate, and accordingly, all the bodies and commissions formed by the current parliament.

However, the price of such principledness is imprisonment, and it seems that the authorities are not going to stop, having faced such a choice with all prominent representatives of the opposition.

One of the reasons for this escalation is the approaching local elections.

If the opposition takes part in them, it will be a symbolic victory for the ruling Georgian Dream party and evidence that the issue of the government’s illegitimacy has been resolved.

It seems that such a victory is desperately needed by the “Georgian Dream”, since, despite formal control over the country, they have not been able to overcome protest activity.

Punishment for dissenters

On the eve of the 2024 parliamentary elections, the founder and honorary chairman of the Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, announced plans to seek a ban on the National Movement and its allies. That is, in fact, a ban on all opposition forces in Georgia.

At the beginning of the year, a parliamentary investigative commission was created , which was initially intended to study the reasons for the outbreak of the Russian-Georgian war of 2008: in other words, to promote the openly pro-Russian thesis that the war was started by then-President Saakashvili.

Later, other events of Saakashvili’s presidency became the subject of research. And soon it became known that the commission’s mandate would be further extended, and the details of the 2003 “Rose Revolution” (another bow to Russian propaganda) would become the subject of investigation.

“We are investigating this and, most likely, we will say that it was not a “velvet revolution”! It was indeed a coup in the form of a “velvet revolution”. A harmful force came to power, and this force came to power through a coup and falsified elections. This will be shown specifically and on the basis of documents,” the head of this commission, Theia Tsulukiani, has stated.

Although the results of these investigations have not yet been made public, the first results of the commission’s work are already available.

The Georgian parliament quickly introduced criminal penalties for refusing to cooperate with the investigative commission. Six opposition leaders have already been punished under this article: leaders of the Agmashenebeli Strategy party Giorgi Vashadze and Girchi Zurab Japaridze, co-founders of the Lelo party Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze, co-chairs of the Akhal party Nikoloz Gvaramia and Nikanor Melia, and one of the leaders of the United National Movement Givi Targamadze.

In addition to a prison sentence of 7-8 months, they are all banned from holding public office for two years.

A telling moment: Nikoloz Gvaramia was already in prison when he was summoned to the parliamentary commission. He was offered to testify online, and after he refused, another case was opened.

So far, the only opposition leader who has agreed to testify is former Prime Minister and leader of the For Georgia party, Giorgi Gakharia.

He gave evidence online while abroad – a case has been opened against him in Georgia for the decision made during his time in government to set up checkpoints near the demarcation line with South Ossetian separatists.

Dilemma for the opposition

The situation with the non-recognition of the parliamentary investigative commission for the Georgian opposition is complicated by another circumstance.

Local elections will be held in Georgia in the fall. And the opposition faces a very difficult dilemma – to participate in them or to ignore them. The parties “For Georgia” and “Lelo” are inclined to participate in these elections. “For Georgia” is not acting for the first time contrary to the position of the pro-European opposition, but the position of the second is surprising. In contrast, all other eight opposition parties are in favour of boycotting these elections.

Significantly, the resolution to hold the elections is signed by Mikheil Kavelashvili, who was elected to the position of President of Georgia by the current parliament. By not recognising the legitimacy of the parliament, the opposition automatically does not recognize Kavelashvili as president. And accordingly, the opposition rules out participating in such elections.

In last year’s parliamentary elections, Georgian Dream showed how well it can rig elections. And although the opposition has a chance to win in major cities, including Tbilisi, there is no reason to believe that the authorities will refrain from rigging big time again.

On the other hand, refusing to participate in elections could cost the opposition dearly. The Georgian Dream party does not hide that they will promote the “correct” opposition in these elections. And that the refusal of pro-European forces to participate in the elections only makes it easier for the authorities to implement their plan.

The illusion of victory

However, the current escalation of repression shows that despite formal control over the situation, “Georgian Dream” feels insecure.

Meanwhile Europe’s position is gradually changing, and not in the direction that the Georgian authorities would like. After a number of symbolic steps, including the refusal to grant visa-free travel to holders of Georgian diplomatic passports, voices in the EU are growing in favuor of imposing personal sanctions against government officials and even abolishing the visa-free regime altogether.

“Today, Georgia’s European integration is on hold. It is a shame that this country may lose its historic chance for EU membership for a long time. Moreover, Georgia’s democracy is still in danger,” said Pavel Gerchinsky, the European Union Ambassador to Georgia.

Until now, Tbilisi was confident that such sanctions would be vetoed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, but it is doubtful that he would do so if the United States imposed sanctions against Georgia.

And the relevant bill has been in the US Congress for a long time and could be put to a vote at any moment. Especially since the latest actions of the Georgian authorities strengthen the arguments of supporters of sanctions.

And finally, mass anti-government protests continue in Georgia, despite mass arrests of activists. Despite all the intimidation from the authorities, the country could “explode” again at any moment.

A longer version of this article in Ukrainian can be found here.

Caption: A supporter of the Georgian opposition takes part in a protest near the Georgian Parliament building in Tbilisi, Georgia, 29 December 2024. EPA/DAVID MDZINARISHVILI