EditInsight: How “EU minus Orbán” decides on Ukraine
European Pravda also reveals what led Fico to block the 18th sanction package on Russia
Our partner “European Pravda” gained exclusive insights from sources at the 26 June EU summit in Brussels, revealing how the European Union has adopted a novel “Europe minus Orbán” strategy to advance Ukraine’s EU accession despite Hungary’s persistent veto.
The 26 June European Council summit underscored a seismic shift in EU decision-making, driven by Hungary’s unrelenting obstruction of Ukraine’s EU accession. European Pravda spoke to high-level sources, uncovering exclusive details about the EU’s adoption of an “EU minus Orbán” framework – a pragmatic workaround to bypass Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s veto while advancing support for Ukraine.
The workaround mechanism
Faced with Orbán’s refusal to support Ukraine’s EU accession talks, the EU has increasingly resorted to a novel strategy: issuing decisions backed by 26 member states, explicitly excluding Hungary. Sources revealed to European Pravda that this practice, first tested at a special summit on 6 March, has become a tradition. At the June summit, leaders issued two documents: one with unanimous consent on issues like extending sectoral sanctions against Russia for six months beyond 31 July, and another, supported by 26 states, affirming Ukraine’s progress toward EU membership.
This “EU minus Orbán” approach marks a departure from the EU’s longstanding commitment to unanimity. A source disclosed that one EU leader attempted to pressure Orbán, warning of political and financial consequences for undermining European unity.
Reportedly, Orbán’s response was defiant: “Punish Hungary! It will only give me political bonuses. Sanctions? Even better!”
This exchange, unreported officially, highlights Orbán’s strategy of leveraging Hungary’s veto for domestic political gain, as he later boasted on Hungarian state radio, “We stopped Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.”
Ukraine’s accession progress
Despite Hungary’s blockade, the 26 member states made a groundbreaking acknowledgment: Ukraine has met all technical conditions to open the first “Fundamentals” negotiation cluster, as confirmed by the European Commission. This is the first time the 26 states have jointly endorsed this milestone in writing, a significant step forward from March, when they only vaguely supported Ukraine’s reforms.
The summit’s document, backed by 26 leaders, praised Ukraine’s reform pace and urged intensified efforts toward accession. Notably, neighbouring states with minorities in Ukraine – Poland, Slovakia, and Romania – raised no objections, a point Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasised in his summit address.
However, the document reiterated that formal negotiations hinge on Hungary’s political consent, a condition Orbán shows no intent to meet. This stalemate underscores the limits of the “EU minus Orbán” approach, which, while symbolically powerful, cannot yet override the EU’s unanimity requirement for accession talks.
Slovakia’s complicating role
Hungary is not the only obstacle. Slovakia, under Prime Minister Robert Fico, has aligned with Budapest on energy-related concerns, blocking the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia. Sources told European Pravda that Fico demanded EU guarantees to offset higher gas transit costs and potential lawsuits from Gazprom after Russian gas supplies cease in 2028.
As the summit was ongoing, Fico was invited to a bilateral meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
After the meeting, both made positive comments, and representatives of the Commission and the Council of the EU began telling journalists that the issue of blocking sanctions had been resolved positively, and Slovakia had surrendered.
But a few hours after speaking with von der Leyen, the Slovak prime minister published a video in which he stated the opposite.
“The European Commission will push through this proposal (on the EU’s refusal from Russian gas. – EP), since the decision will be made by qualified majority, even if we vote against. This will mean the cessation of the flow of gas from east to west. Instead, Slovakia will receive gas from other directions: from the north, south and west. This will lead to a significant increase in transit tariffs for Slovakia”.
“Therefore, the first issue we raised is that the gas that will come to Slovakia through various countries should not have higher transit tariffs than those we pay now. The second key issue is the price… The cessation of Russian gas supplies to Europe will cause an increase in gas prices… But the European Commission is forcing us to stop receiving gas from 1 January 2028,” the Slovak Prime Minister said, predicting that as a result, Gazprom will file a lawsuit worth 16-20 billion euros – and Slovakia may lose it.
Robert Fico claims that he asked von der Leyen would pay the fine to Gazprom – and received no answer.
This is how, European Pravda explains, Fico opposed new sanctions against the Russian Federation.
Moldova-Ukraine alignment
A brief confusion emerged when Romania’s new President, Nicușor Dan, mistakenly announced that Moldova’s first negotiation cluster would open on 4 July.
For Ukraine, decoupling Chisinau from Kyiv on their way to EU accession is an extremely undesirable scenario.
“The issue of decoupling Moldova and Ukraine in the EU accession negotiations is currently not on the agenda,” confirmed one European Council official on condition of anonymity.
Sources in Brussels and Chisinau clarified to European Pravda that no decoupling of Moldova and Ukraine’s accession processes is planned, dismissing Dan’s claim as a novice error. The EU’s summit documents used identical wording for both countries, though Moldova’s section achieved unanimous support, unlike Ukraine’s, which Hungary opposed.
Edited by g.g. A longer version of this article in Ukrainian can be found here.
Caption: Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico at the start of the EU leaders’ Summit in Brussels, Belgium, 26 June 2025. EU leaders gather for a two-day summit to address geoeconomic challenges and the ongoing developments in Ukraine and the Middle East, among other topics. EPA/OLIVIER HOSLET
Updated: June 28, 2025 - 05:35
