EditIn a new world order, China could restrain Russia’s aggression
The core element of the European defence in such security architecture should be Ukraine
Given that Donald Trump pushes the U.S. toward isolationism, probably it makes sense to build political bridges with Bejing, writes Roman Rukomeda.
Roman Rukomeda is a Ukrainian political analyst writing exclusively for EUalive. His other opinion articles can be found here.
From a geopolitical perspective, the world today is markedly different from just one year ago. The United States, once the predictable leader of global democracies, is no longer a reliable force. President Donald Trump’s actions – fostering autocracy domestically while leaving the world to a coalition of authoritarian regimes – have created uncertainty about America’s next steps.
Russia’s recent drone attacks on Poland are a predictable escalation in this chain of events. Without a robust response, particularly decisive action, Eastern European, Baltic, and Nordic nations face the risk of further, more devastating attacks.
Vladimir Putin is clearly testing the resolve of the U.S., NATO, and the EU, planning his next moves in the absence of significant resistance. The aging Russian dictator and war criminal now sees an opportunity not only to weaken NATO and potentially the EU but also to reclaim influence in Eastern and Central Europe – and perhaps beyond. His vision of a USSR 2.0, with himself as a modern Stalin, could become reality. Who can stop him?
Only military strength and unwavering resolve to counter Russian provocations and breaches of “red lines.” Have we seen such resolve?
A new world order has emerged in Europe and globally, defined by raw power, military might, and disregard for established systems of checks and balances or international law protecting smaller nations. Trump’s America is no longer the leader of the free world or the protector of democratic values. In fact, no Western power holds that mantle today. What has taken its place?
The reality is clear: Ukraine, despite being deliberately excluded from NATO and the EU and sustained by unfulfilled promises, has become the de facto leader of Western resistance. For over four years, Ukraine has held back Russia’s offensive against Europe along a 1,000-kilometer front line, defying expectations that Kyiv would fall within weeks or months. Ukraine demonstrates a simple truth: if the EU and broader Europe wish to avoid war on their soil, they must help Ukraine win – potentially without U.S. support, despite political and other challenges.
The fear of Russia’s collapse must not deter action, as it is the only guarantee against future Russian aggression.
The alternative is grim: Russian aggression could soon target Eastern and Northern Europe, fuelled by Russia’s economic struggles and Putin’s ambitions. The new European reality positions Ukraine – not the U.S. – as the true shield of continental security. However, this shield requires greater support and deeper integration into European political and institutional frameworks.
Will we see such commitment?
The emerging Europe must place Ukraine at the heart of its defence against Russian and other potential aggressions. Ukraine’s growing agency demands a distinct geopolitical role, moving beyond the now-defunct Euro-Atlantic solidarity undermined by Trump’s presidency.
A potential framework for this new Europe could involve its own defence forces, with the Ukrainian military as a central pillar, combined with geopolitical balancing between the U.S. and China. Given Trump’s reluctance to protect NATO and Europe from Russian aggression, forging political ties with Beijing could help halt Russia’s attacks on Ukraine and the wider continent, securing a lasting peace for the EU.
In this scenario, China could play a key role in restraining Russia’s aggression. Regardless, Europe must seek a new balance of power between the U.S. and China, as both will demand clarity on Europe’s stance in their escalating rivalry.
When will the EU articulate such a position?
To survive, the European Union has no choice but to become a major geopolitical player, shaping its own destiny. Otherwise, three aging autocrats in the U.S., China, and Russia may carve up the world – and Europe – among themselves, dragging civilization back to the 19th century with more bloodshed and advanced tools for controlling populations.
Caption: The plane carrying China’s President Xi Jinping arrives at Orly airport, south of Paris, France, 05 May 2024. The Chinese president arrived on an official two-day state visit hosted by the French president, where the French leader will seek to push his counterpart on issues ranging from Ukraine to trade. EPA/Michel Euler / POOL
Updated: September 15, 2025 - 11:52
