EditHungary’s veto propels Moldova toward EU membership, leaving Ukraine in limbo
The EU is likely to support Moldova ahead of its pivotal 28 September parliamentary elections
Moldova may overtake Ukraine on the path to EU membership, the European Pravda wrote on Monday (5 May) in an exclusive article, based on comments from diplomats and EU sources.
In March 2022, Moldova became the final member of the “Associated Trio” (alongside Ukraine and Georgia) to apply for EU membership, spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Ukraine’s leadership—President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the prime minister, and parliament speaker—promptly signed an EU application amid the war’s early days, Moldova hesitated. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu, a proponent of gradual EU integration, initially resisted a joint move with Ukraine in 2021, citing risks of antagonizing Moscow and Brussels. Only after Georgia’s application did Sandu act, fearing Moldova might be left behind.
Three years later, an unexpected twist looms: Moldova may overtake Ukraine on the path to EU membership. The EU is preparing to launch accession talks with Chisinau in late 2025, while Kyiv faces delays due to a veto by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. This threatens to dismantle the informal “package” linking Ukraine and Moldova’s EU aspirations, a development that could undermine Ukraine’s trust in the EU and hinder its reform efforts.
The logic of EU “packages”
The EU often groups candidate countries for enlargement to streamline the politically and bureaucratically complex accession process. Historically, only Greece (1981) and Croatia (2013) joined as single states, largely because no other candidates were ready. Grouping candidates simplifies negotiations and fosters mutual advocacy. For Ukraine and Moldova, this pairing has been strategic: Romania fiercely supports Moldova, while Poland, the Baltic states, and others champion Ukraine.
However, Hungary’s veto on Ukraine’s accession talks jeopardizes this arrangement. Sources in Brussels, speaking to European Pravda, confirm the EU is considering severing the Ukraine-Moldova package. “The EU is doing everything to ensure Hungary lifts its blockade on Ukraine,” a diplomat told European Pravda anonymously. “But if it persists, Moldova’s first negotiation cluster, ‘Fundamentals,’ may open by fall 2025.”
Hungary’s role and Orban’s motives
Hungary’s leadership has long pushed to separate Moldova and Ukraine in EU accession talks, a stance Brussels acknowledges as Orban’s demand. The veto stems from domestic politics: with Hungary’s parliamentary elections set for April 2026, Orban is leveraging anti-Ukraine sentiment to rally voters. He portrays Ukraine’s EU membership as a “mortal threat” to Hungary, a narrative central to his campaign amid growing risks of electoral defeat.
“The Hungarian veto is not just about policy—it’s about Orban’s political survival,” a Ukrainian diplomatic source told European Pravda. The EU is reluctant to concede but faces mounting pressure to support Moldova ahead of its pivotal 28 September parliamentary elections. Moldova’s pro-EU government, led by Sandu and the PAS party, has staked its campaign on European integration, promising EU membership by 2029. Without progress, Sandu risks losing to pro-Russian forces, a scenario Brussels fears could destabilize the region and harm Ukraine strategically.
Moldova’s electoral imperative
Moldova’s government faces dire challenges. The International Monetary Fund recently slashed its 2025 economic growth forecast for Moldova from 3.7% to 0.6%, signaling structural issues. High inflation, driven by a new gas dispute with Russia and rising energy costs, further erodes public confidence. “The economy offers no electoral trump cards,” a Ukrainian official recounted European colleagues explaining. “Energy independence from Russia, while a real achievement, doesn’t resonate with voters.”
European integration remains Sandu’s only viable campaign asset. “The EU wants to give Sandu a win,” a Brussels source told European Pravda. “If Moldova remains stalled alongside Ukraine due to Hungary’s veto, it could be the nail in the coffin for her party.” To avoid this, the EU is prepared to prioritize Moldova, even if it means breaking the package with Ukraine.
Ukraine’s diplomatic fight
Kyiv is acutely aware of the stakes. “The issue of trust in the EU is not trivial,” a Ukrainian negotiator told European Pravda. “This leniency toward Moldova feels unjust, and it signals the EU’s inability to rein in Orban.” Ukrainian diplomats hope allies like Poland and the Baltic states will block the package’s dissolution. “We hear from the Baltics they’re against separation,” a Kyiv source said optimistically. “We expect they’ll veto such a decision.”
Yet, even Ukraine’s staunchest supporters are wavering. “We’re in a tough spot,” an official from a Baltic state told European Pravda anonymously. “We back Ukraine, but we also support Moldova. We won’t veto Moldova’s talks.” This shift underscores the EU’s prioritization of Moldova’s electoral timeline.
The EU is intensifying efforts to sway Orban before the 26-27 June EU summit. Strategies include legal analyses of stripping Hungary’s voting rights—a move Budapest is aware of—and pressure from Germany’s new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. However, Orban’s “national consultations” on Ukraine’s membership, running until 20 June, ensure no decision before then. “We’re all waiting for June’s summit,” a European diplomat said, acknowledging the challenge of confronting Orban.
The Trump Factor
A wildcard lies in U.S. President Donald Trump, whom Orban admires. Sources suggest Zelenskyy and European leaders could urge Trump to press Orban, framing Ukraine’s EU path as part of Trump’s peace plan. At the NATO summit on June 24-25, a direct appeal from Trump could tip the scales. “Orban’s special relationship with Trump is no secret,” a Ukrainian source noted. “If Trump tells him to lift the veto, it might work.”
Risks of Delay
If Hungary’s veto persists, Moldova is slated to begin EU talks in September 2025, boosting Sandu’s campaign. Ukraine, however, would remain stalled, likely until Hungary’s 2026 elections or beyond. “The European Commission seems ready to wait for Hungary’s elections,” a senior Ukrainian official told European Pravda. “We’re not satisfied, but what can we do?”
This scenario evokes North Macedonia’s plight. In 2005, it began its EU journey alongside Croatia but faced vetoes from Greece and later Bulgaria, forcing constitutional changes and a name change to North Macedonia. Decades later, it remains stalled, while Croatia joined in 2013. “We must avoid Macedonia’s fate,” a Ukrainian diplomat stressed.
A path forward
Kyiv is pushing back, leveraging diplomatic channels to preserve the package. Ukrainian officials argue that sidelining Ukraine risks long-term damage to EU credibility. Meanwhile, Brussels is preparing Kyiv for the possibility of delay. “Moldova starting first isn’t catastrophic,” Lithuanian MEP Dainius Žalimas told European Pravda. “Lithuania was the last Baltic state to begin talks but joined with others in 2004.”
Yet, the risk of prolonged stagnation looms. Ukraine must intensify pressure on Hungary, rally EU allies, and explore the U.S. angle to break the deadlock. Failure to do so could leave Kyiv stranded in the EU’s waiting room, watching Moldova advance while its own European dreams falter.
A longer original version of this article in Ukrainian can be found here. A full English translation can be found here.
Caption: European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, Moldovan President Maia Sandu and Prime Minister Dorin Recean pose for a photograph after signing bilateral documents at the presidential building in Chisinau, Moldova, 04 February 2025. The Commissioner’s visit to Moldova is part of the EU’s efforts to support the country in tackling a severe energy crisis. EPA-EFE/DUMITRU DORU
Updated: May 6, 2025 - 14:12
