EditHungary’s new leadership confronts uneasy Balkan legacy
Under Orbán, relations were often built on personal ties with individual leaders, particularly in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republika Srpska) and North Macedonia
Hungary’s incoming prime minister Péter Magyar is set to confront a series of difficult challenges that extend well beyond domestic politics and relations with the European Union. Among the most pressing is the Western Balkans, where Budapest’s policies under Viktor Orbán have left behind a dense network of political alliances, economic interests and unresolved disputes.
Hungary has long played a significant role in the region, shaped not only by historical ties dating back to the Austro-Hungarian period but also by strong contemporary economic engagement. Hungarian state-owned and private companies have established a notable presence across sectors such as energy, banking, telecommunications, transport and construction in several Balkan countries. Many of these business successes have been linked to figures close to Orbán’s Fidesz party and its wider political network.
At the same time, Budapest’s political approach to the region has been highly selective. Under Orbán, relations were often built on personal ties with individual leaders, particularly in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republika Srpska) and North Macedonia. These relationships coincided with a broader geopolitical shift after 2010, when Orbán returned to power and strengthened ties with Moscow, contributing to the emergence of an informal network of regional leaders maintaining close links with Russia.
This alignment has had wider implications. Several political actors in the Western Balkans, supported by Budapest, have been accused of balancing between the EU, Russia, China and the United States, while at times slowing down Euro-Atlantic integration processes. Hungary also maintained a visible military role in the region through its participation in peacekeeping missions in Kosovo (KFOR) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (EUFOR), including command and logistical functions.
North Macedonia presents one of the most sensitive issues for the new Hungarian leadership. Former prime minister Nikola Gruevski, a close ally of Orbán, fled to Hungary in 2018 after being sentenced to prison in his home country. Budapest granted him political asylum, despite extradition requests from Skopje, triggering an international controversy. Magyar has indicated that he may revoke this protection, a move that could significantly influence bilateral relations.
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In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary’s policy under Orbán focused heavily on Republika Srpska and its leader Milorad Dodik, often at the expense of relations with the central government in Sarajevo. Political, economic and security ties between Budapest and the Bosnian Serb leadership have been particularly strong, with Hungary at times using its position within the EU to shield Dodik from sanctions.
For Magyar, rebuilding balanced relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina will require more than simply distancing Budapest from Dodik. Economic ties, including energy investments and financial support, have raised concerns about transparency and governance, posing additional challenges for any policy reset.
Serbia remains Hungary’s key regional partner, with cooperation spanning infrastructure, energy and finance. Major joint projects include the Chinese-backed high-speed railway between Belgrade and Budapest, plans to link Serbia to Hungary’s oil pipeline network and Hungarian involvement in Serbia’s energy sector.
However, the political dimension of this relationship may become more complicated. Magyar has already made critical remarks about the close ties between Orbán, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and other regional leaders, suggesting external geopolitical influences behind these alliances. While Belgrade has expressed hope that economic cooperation will continue, the tone of future relations remains uncertain.
Croatia represents another area where tensions have accumulated. Magyar himself has described the deterioration of relations under Orbán as a “historical mistake”. Key disputes include the political representation of national minorities and longstanding disagreements over energy assets.
One particularly sensitive issue is the ownership and management of Croatia’s oil company INA, in which Hungary’s MOL holds a significant stake. The case has been marred by corruption allegations and legal disputes, contributing to strained bilateral relations and drawing criticism at the European level.
Magyar has signalled a willingness to review Hungary’s policies regarding international legal cooperation, including the recognition of European arrest warrants. This could potentially open the door to improved relations with Zagreb, although no concrete commitments have yet been made.
Across the region, the new Hungarian government is expected to reassess investment projects approved under Orbán, including large-scale infrastructure and energy deals. Magyar has already indicated concerns about transparency and possible corruption linked to these agreements, suggesting that a broader review is likely.
Yet any attempt to overhaul Hungary’s Western Balkans policy will face resistance from entrenched political and economic interests. Many of the existing arrangements have generated significant financial benefits for well-connected actors, both within Hungary and across the region.
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The author Volodymyr Tsybulnyk is a Candidate of Historical Sciences, expert on the Western Balkans. His article in Ukrainian by EUalive’s partner European Pravda can be found here.
Caption: Tisza Party’s leader and Hungarian Prime Minister-elect Peter Magyar speaks to the media after the preparatory meeting for the inaugural session of the Parliament at the Parliament building in Budapest, Hungary, 17 April 2026. EPA/ROBERT HEGEDUS
Updated: April 24, 2026 - 05:33
