EditHopes for Middle East peace grow, but scepticism lingers as Israel discusses Lebanon ceasefire
Iranian sources indicated some willingness to compromise on shipping out portions of highly enriched uranium, but core disputes remain unresolved
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire starting at 5 p.m. EST, raising declared hopes for de-escalation in the wider Middle East conflict. Yet analysts and observers caution that the announcement may overstate progress, particularly given Israel’s ongoing operations against Hezbollah and the fragile state of talks aimed at ending hostilities with Iran.
Trump, in a post on Truth Social, said he held “excellent conversations” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. He stated that the two leaders had agreed to the temporary halt “in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries,” adding optimistically: “Both sides want to see PEACE, and I believe that will happen, quickly!” Trump directed Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine to pursue a lasting agreement and suggested the leaders could meet at the White House soon.
The announcement comes amid a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire and indirect talks, mediated in part by Pakistan’s army chief, on issues including sanctions relief, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has repeatedly voiced confidence that a broader deal with Tehran is near, even floating the possibility of traveling to Pakistan to seal it. However, significant differences persist – particularly over Iran’s nuclear activities and demands for guarantees against future attacks – raising questions about whether the optimism is premature.
Persistent fighting casts doubt on Lebanon truce
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict reignited in early March after Hezbollah fired rockets in support of Iran during the U.S.-Israeli strikes that began in late February. Israel’s subsequent offensive in Lebanon has caused heavy casualties and displacement, with the Lebanese health ministry reporting thousands of deaths across the region, many in Lebanon and Iran.
While Trump framed the 10-day pause as a step toward peace, reports indicate Israel continues targeted operations in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah retains significant influence. Notably, the announced ceasefire appears to involve the Lebanese government but does not directly bind Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group that effectively controls much of the border area. Israeli officials have long insisted on Hezbollah’s disarmament south of the Litani River as a precondition for any durable truce, a demand Beirut has struggled to enforce. Recent strikes and ground activities suggest Israel has no immediate plans to wind down its campaign against the group, despite the diplomatic overtures.
Lebanese residents and analysts expressed wariness, with many in Beirut doubting Israel’s commitment to upholding the pause given the pattern of intensified operations even after prior announcements. UN experts have condemned recent large-scale Israeli bombings in Lebanon, underscoring the fragility of any temporary halt.
Iran peace prospects remain elusive
On the Iran front, a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Tehran is in effect, with reported progress on “sticky issues” such as partial sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran closed, triggering a severe global energy shock. Iranian sources indicated some willingness to compromise on shipping out portions of highly enriched uranium, but core disputes over the scope of nuclear restrictions remain unresolved.
At last weekend’s talks, the U.S. proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran – an apparent concession from longstanding demands for a permanent ban. Tehran suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.
Washington has pressed for any highly enriched uranium (HEU) to be removed from Iran. Tehran has demanded that international sanctions against it be lifted.
Two Iranian sources said there were signs of a compromise emerging on the HEU stockpile, with Tehran considering shipping part, but not all, of it out of the country, something it had previously ruled out.
A diplomatic source said the key Pakistani mediator, Army chief Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Wednesday and had made a breakthrough on “sticky issues”, although Tehran said the fate of its nuclear program had not been resolved. Trump has said the accord would open the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s comments that American forces remain “locked and loaded” on Iranian infrastructure highlight the ever-present risk of renewed escalation if talks falter. While Trump has portrayed the situation as “very close” to resolution – with Iran allegedly “beaten up” and eager for a deal – observers note that such statements echo past over-optimistic assessments. Fundamental gaps, including Iran’s refusal to accept a permanent nuclear freeze and demands for ironclad security guarantees, suggest that prospects for a genuine, lasting peace with Tehran are far from assured.
The conflict has already exacted a heavy toll: thousands dead, soaring oil prices, market volatility, and an IMF warning of potential global recession risks. Stock markets have rallied on ceasefire hopes, but rising oil prices reflect underlying uncertainty.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the Lebanon announcement as “a relief,” yet broader regional stability hinges on more than short-term pauses. Without verifiable steps – such as Hezbollah’s effective marginalization or binding nuclear concessions from Iran – the current diplomatic flurry risks amounting to little more than a brief breathing space amid protracted conflict.
Talks are expected to continue in the coming days, but history in the Middle East shows that announced ceasefires and optimistic declarations often collide with entrenched realities on the ground.
With Reuters, edited by g.g.
Caption: Lebanese army soldiers work at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a vehicle in Jiyeh town, south of Beirut, Lebanon, 16 April 2026. Israeli attacks across Lebanon have killed at least 2,160 people and injured more than 7,060 others since the start of renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on 2 March 2026. EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
Updated: April 17, 2026 - 06:31
