EditHigh turnout anticipated as Moldova and diaspora vote in pivotal election
With Transnistria’s Russian garrison and energy blackmail looming, the vote is a battle that could take an ugly turn
Moldovans are expected to turn out in droves today (28 September) for a parliamentary election that could determine the nation’s path toward the European Union or a pivot back to Russia’s orbit. With 1,973 polling stations open across Moldova and 301 abroad for the diaspora, officials predict turnout could surpass 50%, a jump from 2021’s sluggish 48.4%, driven by the vote’s high stakes.
President Maia Sandu has cast this election as an “existential test” for the former Soviet republic of 2.4 million, where economic woes, alleged Russian meddling, and a fierce pro-EU push collide.
The 101-seat parliament up for grabs is critical for Moldova, an EU candidate since 2022 aiming for membership by 2030. Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which has held a majority since 2021, faces a tight race against the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc, led by figures like former President Igor Dodon.
Polls show PAS trailing at 34.7% to the Bloc’s 36%, but the diaspora – nearly 1 million Moldovans abroad, unpolled but historically pro-European – could prove decisive, as seen in Sandu’s 2024 presidential victory. With voting from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. CEST, the expected surge in participation reflects both hope and anxiety over Moldova’s future.
If it loses its majority, PAS will be forced to seek coalition partners among opponents like the centre-left Alternative bloc or the populist Our Party, if they pass the threshold to enter parliament.
Economic hardship fuels voter urgency. Inflation exceeding 30%, poverty affecting over 25% of the population, and energy price spikes – worsened by Russia’s gas cuts to the pro-Moscow Transnistria region – have galvanized turnout.
“There have been various leaders, and not a single normal change,” said Iulian Cazacu, a 26-year-old factory worker in Bălți, who plans to vote despite past disillusionment. In rural areas, where agriculture dominates, fears of EU market competition clash with the promise of €1.9 billion in EU growth funds. Urban and diaspora voters, meanwhile, lean heavily toward integration, eager to escape Moscow’s influence.
Two parties barred over wrongdoing
The government’s crackdown on alleged Russian interference has heightened the election’s intensity, likely boosting turnout further. On Friday, the Central Election Commission (CEC) barred Heart of Moldova, part of the Patriotic Bloc, from the ballot, citing illegal financing after a court suspended the party’s activities for a year. The decision removed 36 candidates, including leader Irina Vlah, recently sanctioned by EU states for suspected Russian ties. “This isn’t justice, but a dirty show to silence us,” the party declared.
On Saturday, the CEC excluded Greater Moldova (Moldova Mare) for similar reasons – unreported funds and voter bribery suspicions – linked to fugitive tycoon Ilan Shor, who operates from Moscow. Shor, convicted in a 2014 bank fraud, denies wrongdoing but is accused of funneling $15 million into vote-buying last year.
Sandu’s administration defends these moves as vital to protect democracy. “If Russia gains control over Moldova, the consequences will be immediate and dangerous for our country and the region,” she warned last week. Authorities have conducted hundreds of raids targeting illicit financing and disinformation networks, which officials say flood social media and rural areas with cash handouts.
Intelligence reports, backed by Western allies, point to Moscow’s playbook: vote-buying, cyberattacks, and protests to destabilize the vote, tactics honed in 2024’s presidential race. Russia, with troops in Transnistria, dismisses the allegations as “anti-Russian hysteria” to prop up PAS.
The high turnout expectation reflects Moldova’s polarized mood. In Bălți, 76-year-old poet Liudmila Bielova, sceptical of EU benefits, plans to vote for the pro-European Alternative bloc, wary of agricultural losses. “We’re a poor country. What will the EU gain from us?” she asked.
Yet the diaspora, voting in cities like London and Bucharest, is expected to heavily favour PAS, driven by EU integration’s promise of stability and jobs. OSCE observers will monitor for fairness, amid concerns over the CEC’s bans fuelling distrust.
A PAS majority would accelerate EU reforms, securing funds and shielding Moldova from Moscow. A loss – or a slim win – forces coalitions with populists like the Alternative bloc or Our Party, risking stalled reforms and political gridlock. With Transnistria’s Russian garrison and energy blackmail looming, the vote and its aftermath is a battle that could take an ugly turn.
With Reuters, edited by g.g.
Caption: A girl walks near a wall covered with electoral posters in Balti, Moldova, 23 September 2025. Moldova’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for 28 September 2025. EPA/EPA/DUMITRU DORU
Updated: September 28, 2025 - 06:51
