Heather Humphreys emerges as frontrunner in race to become President of Ireland

Former Fine Gael minister Heather Humphreys has surged ahead as the leading candidate to become the tenth President of Ireland, commanding strong support across the political spectrum. The unexpected withdrawal of Mairead McGuinness, long considered the frontrunner, has reshaped the race. (Fine Gael is a centre-right party, EPP-affiliated.)

McGuinness, long seen as the lead candidate to become the tenth President of Ireland, shocked colleagues and pundits with her withdrawal from the race due to ill health. The former European Commissioner and Vice-President of the European Parliament had been polling six points ahead of her closest rival, Catherine Connolly, according to an Irish Times/IPSOS B\&O survey in mid-July.

Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Simon Harris paid tribute to McGuinness for “her incredible public service” and wished her a full recovery. He also confirmed that his party Fine Gael, aligned with the EPP group, would have a candidate in the election and launched an internal nomination process.

Sean Kelly MEP and former minister Heather Humphreys were the first to enter the race. Kelly, a former President of the Gaelic Athletic Association, is widely recognised across Ireland, but Humphreys quickly pulled ahead. Seen as a competent and experienced minister – she oversaw the centenary of the 1916 Easter Rising – Humphreys now commands a lead that will be difficult to challenge. Kelly’s lower profile in the Dáil has hampered his prospects.

(The Easter Rising, also known as the Easter Rebellion, was an armed insurrection in Ireland during Easter Week in April 1916The Rising was launched by Irish republicans against British rule in Ireland with the aim of establishing an independent Irish Republic while the United Kingdom was fighting the First World War.)

Humphreys’ appeal goes beyond Fine Gael. She has attracted backing from across party lines and is well placed to bridge Ireland’s cultural and political divides. A Presbyterian from Cavan, which borders Northern Ireland, Humphreys has family ties to Unionism – her grandfather signed the 1912 Ulster Covenant opposing Dublin’s “Home Rule.” Her candidacy is seen as a gesture toward inclusivity, signalling to Unionists that their traditions would be respected in any future united Ireland. (In the Irish context, Unionism refers to the political and ideological movement that advocates for maintaining the political union between Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom. Unionists, primarily concentrated in Northern Ireland, support the continuation of Northern Ireland as part of the UK, opposing the idea of a united Ireland that would see Northern Ireland join the Republic of Ireland as a single sovereign state. Unionism is deeply rooted in historical, cultural, and religious identities, particularly among Protestant communities in Northern Ireland, though it is not exclusively a religious movement.)

Meanwhile, Catherine Connolly has mounted the most active campaign to date. Running as a candidate of the left, she has secured support from the Social Democrats, People Before Profit, and – reluctantly – the Labour Party, despite having left Labour in 2007. Sinn Féin may also back her, but only if she prioritises their central goal of Irish unity.

Connolly faces scrutiny over her record. She voted against EU sanctions on Assad, visited Syria under his regime in 2018 alongside left-wing MEPs Mick Wallace and Clare Daly, and controversially endorsed far-right activist Gemma O’Doherty for the presidency in 2018. She is also an outspoken critic of what she calls the EU’s “neo-liberal agenda” and its “trillions” invested in the “military industrial complex.” While unlikely to gain broad establishment support, her positions on housing, public services, and her vocal stance on Gaza and Palestinian rights could resonate with sections of the electorate.

Fianna Fáil, the other governing party (ALDE-affiliated), has yet to reveal its intentions. A terse statement said its position would be made “very clear from the start of September.” MEPs Billy Kelleher and Barry Andrews have publicly expressed frustration at the delay. Rumours persist that former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern or ex-European Commissioner Máire Geoghegan-Quinn may be contenders, though party strategists may decide to avoid a contest altogether. Fianna Fáil has a history of dominance in presidential elections but has not always fielded candidates; Mary McAleese was elected unopposed in 1997.

Beyond the political mainstream, several unconventional figures have signalled interest. MMA fighter Conor McGregor—who recently lost an appeal in a civil rape case—announced hopes of running but is unlikely to gain the necessary Oireachtas backing. Businessman Peter Casey, who once won 20% of the vote with an anti-immigration message, faces similar obstacles. Retired dancer and Trump supporter Michael Flatley (Lord of the Dance) is also considering a bid.

Though the presidency carries limited powers, the role is deeply symbolic. Incumbent Michael D. Higgins has been widely admired at home during his two terms, though his criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza has provoked condemnation from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who accused him of anti-Semitism – allegations Higgins denounced as “gross defamation.”

For now, Heather Humphreys stands as the strongest contender. Yet, as past campaigns have shown, Irish presidential elections can still surprise.

Caption: Heather Humphreys, Flickr account Fine Gael