EditGreece’s ambitious hydrocarbon goals: striking a balance between opportunity and caution
The Greek government hailed the Chevron–Helleniq Energy consortium’s bid for four offshore gas blocks south of Crete and the Peloponnese
The Greek government recently hailed the Chevron–Helleniq Energy consortium’s bid for four offshore gas blocks south of Crete and the Peloponnese as a landmark moment for the nation’s energy strategy.
Government officials framed the bid as a “major vote of confidence” in Greece’s potential to become an energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean.
However, a closer examination of the technical, economic, and geopolitical realities suggests that such optimism may be premature.
The Chevron–Helleniq bid: a tentative step
Greece’s Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou said on 10 September that U.S. oil giant Chevron, in partnership with Greece’s Helleniq Energy, submitted a bid to explore natural gas in four deep-sea blocks off the Peloponnese and Crete, following a tender launched earlier this year.
Papastavrou described the move as a historic milestone. A Chevron spokesperson confirmed the bid, noting the Eastern Mediterranean’s strategic importance to the company’s future.
Greece, which produces negligible amounts of oil, has increasingly focused on renewables but remains heavily reliant on natural gas for power generation. The country sees domestic hydrocarbon exploration as a way to reduce dependence on imported energy, particularly Russian gas, in line with EU efforts to diversify energy sources following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Major gas discoveries off Egypt, south of Crete, have fueled hopes of similar reserves in Greek waters.
Technical and economic hurdles
The offshore blocks in question lie in ultra-deep waters, posing significant technical and financial challenges. Exploration and extraction at such depths require substantial investment, with costs escalating rapidly. Industry experts note that for these projects to be viable, global oil and gas prices must remain consistently high for years- a risky assumption given market volatility.
The experience of Cyprus serves as a cautionary tale. The “Aphrodite” field, with an estimated 5.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, was discovered nearly two decades ago, yet commercial production is not expected until 2027 or later. Greece faces similar timelines, with the journey from exploration to production likely spanning a decade or more, even if viable reserves are found.
Geopolitical complexities
Chevron’s involvement introduces geopolitical uncertainties. While the company has expressed interest in Greek waters, it has made no firm commitments, stating only that it is “examining opportunities.” Meanwhile, Chevron executives have engaged with Libyan authorities to explore opportunities in Libya, including fields near the contentious Turkey–Libya maritime boundary memorandum of 2019. This agreement, which disregards Greek and Egyptian exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims, underscores the region’s disputed maritime boundaries.
Greece’s unilateral EEZ delimitation off Crete in 2011, based on the median line with Libya, remains unrecognised by Ankara, which contests the rights of islands like Crete and Cyprus to generate EEZs. Greece’s Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis recently emphasized ongoing diplomatic efforts with Libya’s rival administrations in Tripoli and Benghazi to address the dispute, aiming to establish a roadmap for maritime zone delimitation by the end of 2025. However, Chevron’s parallel engagements in Libya could complicate Greece’s claims to “national sovereignty” over its offshore resources.
The “energy hub” narrative
The government’s vision of Greece as a Southeastern European energy hub relies heavily on infrastructure like the Alexandroupolis LNG terminal, which has a nominal capacity of 5.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year but operates at limited capacity. LNG deliveries for 2024–25 are projected at just 6 TWh, a fraction of potential. Greece’s gas supply remains dominated by Russian imports via the Sidirokastro pipeline (approximately 40%) and Azeri gas through the TAP pipeline (around 15%), with U.S. LNG accounting for over 40% of imports.
This dependence on imported gas underscores Greece’s role as a transit hub rather than a producer. The recent visit of the U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum to Athens, while framed as support for Greek exploration, was primarily aimed at securing markets for U.S. LNG exports to Southeastern Europe, according to energy analysts.
The U.S. wants to expand its energy ties with Greece, Burgum said on 11 September, as the Trump administration works to further reduce Russia’s oil and gas supplies to Europe.
A dose of realism
The potential for hydrocarbon exploitation could indeed bolster Greece’s economy and energy security, but the path to production is fraught with challenges. Deep-sea exploration demands significant capital, viable reserves are uncertain, and geopolitical tensions – particularly with Turkey and Libya, persist. The government’s celebratory rhetoric risks overshadowing these realities.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently linked Chevron’s bid to Greece’s sovereign rights, noting its timing alongside U.S. diplomatic engagement. Yet, the involvement of an ExxonMobil-led consortium collecting seismic data in adjacent blocks highlights that Greece’s hydrocarbon ambitions remain in early stages, with no guarantee of success.
Greece’s pursuit of hydrocarbons is a high-stakes gamble, not a guaranteed triumph. The technical complexities, economic uncertainties, and geopolitical intricacies demand a cautious approach. Rather than banking on headlines of a “new Qatar” in the Mediterranean, Greece would benefit from a pragmatic energy strategy that balances exploration with diversification and diplomacy.
Only a sober assessment of the challenges ahead will ensure that the country’s ambitions do not outpace its realities.
Other source used: Reuters, edited by a.k.
The original article in Greek can be found here.
Caption: The LNG terminal in Alexandroupolis is receiving its first delivery from France’s Total. The terminal is located inland, about 40 minutes from the port. BGNES/GEORGI PASHKULEV
Updated: September 15, 2025 - 10:57
