EditGerman Chancellor Merz voices deep doubts over U.S.-Israeli Iran strategy
His remarks come as Trump continues to declare the war “won,” Iran’s military “decimated,” and Tehran on the verge of major concessions
One month into the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered a blunt assessment that exposed growing transatlantic fractures and cast fresh doubt on the war’s direction.
Speaking at a conference hosted by the FAZ newspaper on Friday, Merz stated plainly: “I’m just not convinced that what’s happening right now – what Israel and America are doing – will actually lead to success.” He expressed serious scepticism about whether Washington and Jerusalem possess a coherent strategy to bring the conflict to a swift and convincing end.
Merz’s remarks come as President Donald Trump continues to project unqualified success. Trump has repeatedly declared the war “won,” Iran’s military “decimated,” and Tehran on the verge of major concessions, including on the Strait of Hormuz. Yet on the ground and in allied capitals, the reality tells a far more sobering story: a grinding war of attrition with depleted U.S. resources, furious Gulf partners, and ripple effects now threatening global energy security and economic stability.
Intelligence reality vs. optimistic rhetoric
U.S. intelligence assessments, as reported exclusively by Reuters, paint a picture of only partial success. Washington can confirm with high confidence the destruction of roughly one-third of Iran’s pre-war ballistic missile arsenal. Another third is believed damaged or buried in collapsed underground facilities, while the status of the final third remains uncertain.
Iran has demonstrated resilience, sustaining launches even from heavily bombed sites such as Bid Kaneh and recently firing missiles and drones at Gulf targets as well as reaching the distant U.S.-U.K. base on Diego Garcia. While the campaign has crippled much of Iran’s navy and production capacity, Tehran’s ability to prolong the fight has not been eliminated.
No clear plan, no NATO involvement
Chancellor Merz went further, questioning the existence of any joint plan for ending the war. In a recent phone call with Trump, he emphasized that “this is not NATO’s war,” adding that he believed the president understood Germany’s position. Berlin is engaged in diplomatic efforts with Gulf states and within the G7, but Merz admitted limited success in influencing Israel. He stressed that Germany stands ready, in principle, to contribute to post-conflict stabilization – such as mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz under an international mandate and with parliamentary approval – but ruled out any involvement while active hostilities continue.
This stance reflects broader European reluctance that has visibly angered Trump, who has criticized NATO allies for offering minimal support.
The human and strategic cost
The burden of the conflict has fallen heavily on America’s Gulf allies. Iranian retaliation has struck the UAE, Bahrain, and other GCC states, while Tehran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes – has disrupted fuel exports and sent energy prices surging worldwide. Gulf capitals, hosting U.S. bases, find themselves in the crossfire of a war they did not initiate, breeding frustration directed at both Tehran and the strategy that has prolonged their exposure.
On the U.S. side, the high-tempo campaign has strained resources. Precision munitions stockpiles are being drawn down rapidly, at least one major aircraft carrier (the USS Gerald R. Ford) is sidelined for repairs following an internal fire, and casualties have mounted.
USS Gerald R. Ford, damaged by laundry room fire, to move to Croatia for repairs?
These logistical pressures raise questions about long-term sustainability, especially as the conflict risks drawing in wider regional actors or complicating deterrence elsewhere.
A crisis of global dimensions
What began as a targeted operation to degrade Iran’s nuclear and missile programs has escalated into something far larger. The partial shutdown of critical energy chokepoints is fuelling inflation fears in Europe and beyond.
Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel in volatile trading, European natural gas benchmarks have spiked dramatically, and the resulting shockwaves are already feeding higher inflation expectations across G7 economies while threatening to tip fragile recoveries into stagnation or outright recession.
Beyond energy markets, the conflict is straining global supply chains, inflating costs for everything from fertilizers to shipping, and exposing the fragility of post-pandemic economic stability. European leaders, already confronting higher household energy bills and industrial slowdowns, watch nervously as the war’s ripple effects compound existing pressures.
With Reuters, edited by g.g.
Caption: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz looks on in front of the writing ‘Ostdeutsche’ (German for ‘east Germans,’ part of the background description ‘Conference of the government heads of the east German states 2026’) during a press conference at the Red Town Hall in Berlin, Germany, 26 March 2026. The press conference was held on the occasion of the 56th Regional Conference of the Heads of Government of Eastern German States. EPA/CLEMENS BILAN
Updated: March 28, 2026 - 07:44
