EditGeorgian Dream’s fear of losing grip fuels Ukraine coup narrative ahead of elections
The 4 October local elections, though unlikely to shift the political landscape, have become a flashpoint
As Georgia approaches its 4 October local elections, the ruling Georgian Dream party, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, is gripped by insecurity despite its tight control over the Central Election Commission, security forces, and electoral processes.
The party’s dominance, bolstered by rejecting international observers, raising electoral thresholds, and eliminating the 40% rule for majoritarian candidates, should ensure an easy victory.
Yet, according to Amiran Khevtsuriani, professor at Georgian Technical University and founder of the Georgian-Ukrainian Center, and Yuriy Panchenko, editor of European Pravda, recent events reveal a regime rattled by the prospect of losing its supremacy, resorting to a fabricated narrative of a Ukraine-orchestrated coup to suppress opposition and rally its base. The authors urge the European Union to take decisive action to counter Georgian Dream’s authoritarian tactics and safeguard Georgia’s democratic future.
The elections, though unlikely to shift the political landscape, have become a flashpoint. Most opposition parties, including Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement and former President Salome Zurabishvili, initially called for a boycott, citing the illegitimacy of President Mikheil Kavelashvili, a Georgian Dream appointee.
However, opposition leaders Levan Khabeishvili and opera singer Paata Burchuladze have shifted gears, planning a massive “national meeting” on election day in Tbilisi, aiming to draw unprecedented crowds to challenge the regime.
Their campaign, including distributing two million “mandate” invitations for a symbolic vote, has unnerved Georgian Dream, which mocked the plan but quickly escalated its response.
Faced with this defiance, Georgian Dream activated its “propaganda machine” and “power instinct.” On 11 September the State Security Service, now led by parliamentary majority leader Mamuka Mdinaradze—a loyalist with minimal law enforcement experience – arrested Khabeishvili and Murtaz Zodelava, a former Saakashvili-era prosecutor, on dubious charges of bribing officials.
Khabeishvili had publicly promised $200,000 to law enforcement officers who refused to follow “illegal” orders during protests, a pledge lawyers argue does not legally constitute bribery. The regime’s hypocrisy is stark: in 2018, then-Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze’s promise to write off 1.5 billion lari in debts for 600,000 citizens was criticized by international observers as voter bribery, yet faced no repercussions.
Georgian Dream’s pre-election repression extends beyond opposition figures. The regime has targeted former allies, arresting ex-Defence Minister Dzhuansher Burchuladze and Deputy Economy Minister Romeo Mikutadze for alleged embezzlement, signalling internal fractures. Rumours swirl of impending arrests of other Ivanishvili loyalists, including former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, suggesting a possible split between Ivanishvili and current Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s factions.
This purge underscores Georgian Dream’s desperation to maintain its monolithic grip as public dissent grows.
But the regime’s most audacious move is its claim of a Ukraine-engineered coup. On 10 September the State Security Service reported detaining two Ukrainian citizens driving a truck from Ukraine, allegedly carrying 2.4 kg of hexogen explosives hidden for transit to Russia. Despite the detainees’ claims that the explosives were destined for a Russian operation, Georgian authorities insist the target was Tbilisi, implicating Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and former Saakashvili-era Defence Minister Bachana Akhalaia in an alleged coup plot.
This narrative, devoid of credible evidence, mirrors Georgian Dream’s tactic of vilifying Ukraine to deflect from domestic unrest and justify crackdowns.
The authors warn that as 4 October nears, Georgian Dream’s provocations will likely intensify, potentially culminating in a brutal suppression of protests, as seen in past crackdowns.
The authors plead that the EU must act decisively to counter this slide toward authoritarianism. While cancelling Georgia’s visa-free regime risks harming citizens, they argue that such move could pressure the regime by forcing the return of émigrés who left for Europe, amplifying domestic dissent.
They also appal to the EU to strengthen support for Georgia’s opposition and civil society, impose targeted sanctions on Georgian Dream leaders, and demand transparency in electoral processes to prevent further democratic erosion. According to them, without such measures, Georgian Dream’s fear-driven tactics, cloaked in baseless coup allegations, threaten to entrench Ivanishvili’s rule and derail Georgia’s European aspirations.
A longer original version of this article in Ukrainian can be found here.
Caption: File photo. Police officers detain a protester during Georgian opposition supporters protest in front of the Parliament building in Tbilisi, Georgia, 3 December 2024. Thousands of pro-EU activists continue their protests in the Georgian capital against the country’s ruling party decision to suspend accession talks with the European Union (EU) until the end of 2028. EPA/DAVID MDZINARISHVILI
Updated: September 17, 2025 - 06:08
