Friedrich Merz sworn in as German Chancellor: a new era for European leadership?

Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), will be sworn in today (6 May) as Germany’s chancellor, heading a coalition government with the Social Democrats (SPD).

This “black-red” coalition, uniting conservatives and centre-left forces, marks a significant shift in German politics, with implications for Europe’s security, defence, and foreign policy. Merz’s chancellorship comes at a pivotal moment, as Europe grapples with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, a potential retreat of U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump, and the need for a revitalized Franco-German partnership.

Merz’s ascension follows years of perceived German hesitancy under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. As Jana Puglierin, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ (ECFR) Berlin office, notes, “After years of internal bickering and political navel-gazing under the previous government, what’s needed now is German leadership that doesn’t just observe European policy, but helps shape it.” Merz, she argues, is well-positioned to deliver, with plans to centralize foreign and European policy in the chancellery, making it “the nerve centre of decision-making.”

A key asset for Merz is the alignment within his coalition. For the first time in nearly six decades, a Christian Democrat, Johann Wadephul, heads the Foreign Ministry. Puglierin emphasizes that Wadephul “sees his role as implementing the Chancellor’s strategic direction, not contradicting it,” a departure from the competing foreign policies of the Scholz era. Meanwhile, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, retained from the previous government, and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil are steering SPD foreign policy with “much more realism” than their predecessors. Pistorius, who has called for a “war-ready” Bundeswehr and warned of a potential Russian attack on NATO, aligns closely with Merz’s security priorities.

However, Merz’s foreign policy will be shaped by competing instincts, according to Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR’s editorial director. He identifies three core drivers: “Atlanticist (allegiance to the transatlantic alliance), Europeanist (a deep, emotional commitment to Europe), and ‘Germany first’ (a narrow vision of German interests rooted in his conservatism).” With Trump’s policies constraining transatlantic ties, Cliffe argues that Merz’s chancellorship “will be defined by the interaction” between his Europeanist and Germany-first impulses. Early signals, such as planned visits to Paris, Warsaw, and Kyiv, suggest an ambition to restore Germany’s leadership role. In Kyiv, Cliffe notes, Merz has a chance to “end the ambiguities that prevailed under Olaf Scholz” and commit to supporting Ukraine unequivocally.

The Franco-German relationship, a cornerstone of European integration, is poised for a reset. Camille Lons, deputy head of ECFR’s Paris office, highlights French optimism about Merz: “The French see the election of Friedrich Merz as an opportunity for a promising re-start of Franco-German relations.” Merz’s decision to make Paris his first foreign visit, meeting President Emmanuel Macron, underscores this priority. Unlike Scholz, Merz appears receptive to French proposals on European strategic autonomy and has expressed openness to “Europeanising” France’s nuclear deterrent. However, Lons cautions that Paris awaits “concrete action,” particularly on European defense projects like the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).

Poland, another critical partner, sees potential in Merz’s leadership. Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, argues that Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, both members of the European People’s Party (EPP), have a “unique chance” to overcome historical tensions, including unresolved issues from World War II. Germany’s planned investment of “hundreds of billions of euros in armaments” could be transformative, Buras says, but only if coordinated with European partners to promote “task-sharing, resource pooling, and the standardisation of military equipment.” A strategic Polish-German defence partnership could emerge, bolstered by Germany’s reformed debt brake, which opens fiscal space for ambitious projects.

Merz’s coalition faces challenges, particularly on divisive issues like deploying a reassurance force for Ukraine. Yet, Puglierin notes a “new strategic consensus” between the CDU/CSU and SPD: “Germany must become militarily capable and politically resilient in the face of Europe’s greatest security crisis since 1989.” This consensus, coupled with early financial commitments, lays a foundation for action.

As Merz takes office, Europe watches closely. Will his Europeanist vision prevail, fostering a bold German leadership that unites the continent? Or will “Germany first” instincts lead to a narrower focus, risking division? Buras frames the stakes starkly: “Without Germany, [European defense] ambitions cannot be realised.” Merz’s early moves – starting with his Paris visit and his pledge to support Ukraine – will signal which path he chooses.

For more on the “Merz doctrine” and German foreign policy, visit ECFR’s analysis.

Caption; Designated Chancellor and Chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party Friedrich Merz (C), new elected Fraction Leader Jens Spahn (R) and Leader of the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) Markus Soeder (L) attend a news conference after a fraction meeting in Berlin, Germany, 05 May 2025. [EPA-EFE/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE]