EditFrench far right ponders life beyond Le Pen as appeal ruling looms
Opinion polls project both Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella comfortably winning the first round of the 2027 election to reach a run-off vote
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen faces a make-or-break court ruling on 7 July on her bid to overturn an election ban, a verdict that could knock her out of the 2027 presidential race or clear the way for her to seek the top job for a fourth time.
France’s political class is anxiously awaiting the appeal ruling, which will determine whether Le Pen, 57, or her protégé Jordan Bardella, 30, carries the far-right banner into an election less than a year away, with their anti-immigration National Rally (RN) still riding high in the polls.
A French court in March 2025 handed Le Pen a five-year ban from public office and a four-year jail sentence for embezzling funds from the European Parliament, pending appeal, in a seismic verdict that reverberated beyond France and drew harsh words from U.S. President Donald Trump and other right-wing leaders.
With the RN closer than ever to winning power in France, the European Union’s second-biggest economy, party leaders have been forced to contend with unexpectedly-early succession planning, and its impact on policy lines.
Asked during a foreign trip last month if he was readying to be the RN’s presidential candidate, Bardella delivered his stock response: “I am until further notice preparing to be (Le Pen’s) prime minister.”
But the mood among Le Pen’s troops in parliament is nervous.
Even if the party has a plan B in Bardella, many lawmakers who joined under the leadership of Le Pen, who transformed it from a fringe nationalist movement to the single biggest party in parliament, said they would mourn the loss of a towering figure if she was definitively barred.
“You can never be totally prepared. It would be a kind of personal grief if it happened,” RN lawmaker Thomas Ménagé told reporters. “However unfair the verdict is, we’ll accept the decision, we’re not revolutionaries,” he added.
Le Pen vs Bardella
Bardella’s meteoric ascent to party chief, and now potential presidential contender, has fuelled internal tensions over the RN’s direction, notably on economic policy, party sources say.
Bardella, who earlier this year recruited a personal adviser from an investment fund controlled by libertarian billionaire Pierre-Edouard Stérin, advocates a more free-market line than Le Pen. He has voiced his own ideas for pension reform, raising questions among some party insiders over how far a Bardella manifesto might deviate from Le Pen’s hard-fought platform.
Senior party officials describe a unified leadership. One said there had been “no hostilities” at a June 12 meeting between Le Pen, Bardella and their close aides to strategise on what happens after 7 July.
“Whether it’s one or the other, neither is going to pack a bag and hit the (campaign) road on their own. They will be a team,” said senior RN lawmaker Laurent Jacobelli.
Opponents say Bardella’s relative lack of experience compared with the battle-hardened Le Pen will come under closer scrutiny if he becomes the party’s presidential candidate.
His ascent has not been without missteps, analysts say.
Bardella has been forced to answer media questions on how his romance with a princess, Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies, might be perceived by the blue-collar voters the party courts. Pictures of him in the stands at the Monaco Grand Prix on the day of a protest against the killing of a young girl drew private rebukes from party officials close to Le Pen.
Jordan Bardella and Princess Maria-Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies watching the F1 Grand Prix in Monaco
🇫🇷🇮🇹 pic.twitter.com/MeULnHKd9s
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 8, 2026
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Polls confirm the RN’s frontrunner status
Opinion polls project both Le Pen and Bardella comfortably winning the first round of the 2027 election to reach a run-off vote. An Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI and Le Figaro showed him outperforming Le Pen, with up to 37% of voting intentions compared to her 32%.
“This dissociation between the two is a real turning point,” IFOP’s Frederic Dabi said on LCI TV, adding that Bardella was scoring more favourably among private-sector workers, business owners and voters aged 50 to 64.
Polls also show Bardella would win a second-round runoff more easily against a left-wing candidate than a centrist rival.
Le Pen’s initial strategy of rallying public outrage over her conviction and accusing the judiciary of political bias fell flat. A majority of voters dismiss those claims, with even RN supporters saying she is not above the law.
What could be the impact on EU policies if a RN candidate wins in 2027?
A victory by Le Pen or Bardella in the French presidential election would likely lead to a more assertive, sovereignty-focused French approach toward the EU, emphasizing reform from within rather than outright exit.
Both leaders have moved away from past calls for Frexit or leaving the eurozone, instead advocating a transformation of the EU into a looser “union of nations” with reduced supranational powers. Key expectations include diminishing the role of the European Commission (potentially turning it into a secretariat serving the European Council), opposing further transfers of sovereignty especially in foreign and defence policy, resisting qualified majority voting expansions, and asserting the primacy of national law over EU law in areas like migration.
They would probably push to cut France’s net EU budget contributions (with Bardella previously proposing reductions of €2–3 billion or more), reject common EU debt or taxation schemes, and seek rebates or renegotiations. On migration, expect strong opposition to the EU Migration Pact, efforts to strengthen national border controls, reform or bypass Frontex, and prioritize “national preference” for French citizens in jobs, housing, and welfare.
Overall, this would introduce significant friction with EU institutions, potential opt-outs or vetoes on key files, and a shift toward a more intergovernmental EU dynamic.
On Russia, a Le Pen or Bardella presidency would likely pursue a more pragmatic and dialogue-oriented approach within the EU framework.
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With Reuters
Caption: French MP President of the National Rassemblement group in the National Assembly Marine Le Pen attends the weekly session of questions to the government at the National Assembly in Paris, France, 20 May 2026. EPA/Firas Abdullah
Updated: July 2, 2026 - 13:35
