France and Germany lead EU push to counter Republika Srpska’s defiance

On 12 May, France and Germany co-authored an unusually sharp non-paper that has thrust the ongoing political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) back into the international spotlight.

The document, a bold European response to the actions of Republika Srpska (RS), one of BiH’s two constituent entities, accuses RS leadership of undermining the country’s constitutional order and the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords.

Proposing economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and suspension of EU-funded projects favoring RS, the non-paper signals a significant escalation in Western efforts to counter the secessionist rhetoric of RS’s pro-Russian leader, Milorad Dodik. This move, set against the backdrop of the Dayton Accords’ 30th anniversary and shifting geopolitical dynamics, highlights the pivotal role of High Representative Christian Schmidt and exposes the delicate balance of power in the Western Balkans.

The Dayton framework

The Dayton Peace Accords, signed in 1995, ended the Bosnian War by establishing BiH as a state composed of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, with its capital in Banja Luka. RS was created to safeguard the interests of BiH’s Serb population but has increasingly operated as a semi-autonomous entity under Dodik’s leadership. Since taking power, Dodik has pursued a pro-Russian agenda, openly challenging BiH’s state institutions and the authority of the Office of the High Representative (OHR), which oversees the implementation of Dayton.

Recent moves by RS, including a legislative ban on state institutions operating on its territory and plans to draft a new constitution, have alarmed European powers. These actions are seen as direct threats to BiH’s sovereignty and its aspirations for EU integration. The Franco-German non-paper explicitly frames RS’s manoeuvres as violations of Dayton, accusing Dodik and other RS leaders, such as Nenad Stevandić and Radovan Višković, of destabilizing the fragile multi-ethnic state. By proposing targeted sanctions, suspension of EU-funded projects under the Western Balkans Investment Framework, and diplomatic isolation of RS leadership, France and Germany aim to curb what they perceive as secessionist ambitions.

The role of High Representative Christian Schmidt

At the heart of this crisis is the Office of the High Representative, currently led by Christian Schmidt, a German diplomat appointed in 2021. The OHR, established under Dayton, holds significant powers to enforce the peace agreement, including the ability to impose laws and remove officials who threaten BiH’s stability. Schmidt has faced intense resistance from RS, which disputes his legitimacy, claiming his appointment lacked approval from the UN Security Council- a position supported by Russia and China. Despite this, Schmidt has sought to strengthen BiH’s central institutions, including by imposing legal measures to counter RS’s attempts to undermine state authority.

The Franco-German non-paper explicitly endorses Schmidt’s work, signaling robust EU support for his efforts to stabilize BiH. This backing is critical, as Schmidt’s authority has been repeatedly challenged by Dodik, who has accused the OHR of overstepping its mandate. The non-paper’s call for sanctions and isolation aligns with Schmidt’s broader strategy to pressure RS into compliance, but it also places him in a precarious position, as his actions could further inflame tensions in an already polarized environment.

EU mobilisation and Serbia’s dilemma

The non-paper represents a rare instance of Franco-German unity on Balkan policy, signaling a broader EU mobilisation to address the region’s persistent instability. Retired Serbian diplomat Zoran Milivojević described the document as “extremely clear,” interpreting it as a call to action within the EU to resolve the Balkan impasse amid potential geopolitical shifts, such as Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and uncertainties surrounding U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump.

But the absence of American backing for the non-paper, coupled with internal EU disagreements, creates a complex diplomatic landscape. Milivojević suggests that this lack of consensus provides Serbia, BiH’s influential neighbour, with room to manoeuvre.

Serbia, led by President Aleksandar Vučić, faces a delicate balancing act. As a candidate for EU membership, Belgrade is under pressure to align with European policies, but it also maintains strong historical and ethnic ties with RS and its Serb population. At a recent National Security Council meeting, Serbian officials assessed the non-paper’s implications. Serbia’s Foreign Minister, Marko Đurić, speaking at the Dayton Accords’ 30th anniversary commemoration in Ohio, underscored the need for dialogue among BiH’s ethnic groups – Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats – as equals, warning that imposing decisions by majority rule violates Dayton’s spirit and threatens coexistence.

RS’s rejection and the risk of escalation

Dodik, predictably, dismissed the non-paper as “counterproductive and damaging,” accusing France and Germany of violating Dayton’s principles. RS authorities argue that European interventions exacerbate instability by sidelining the entity’s autonomy, a core tenet of the peace agreement. This rejection underscores the broader challenge of reconciling Dayton’s decentralised framework with BiH’s EU aspirations, which require stronger central governance. Dodik’s alignment with Russia further complicates the situation, as Moscow’s support emboldens RS to resist Western pressure, potentially deepening the crisis.

The document’s unofficial status allows it to serve as a diplomatic warning shot, testing the resolve of both RS and Serbia without committing the EU to immediate action. Its success, however, depends on Brussels’ political will and ability to overcome internal divisions. The broader geopolitical context – marked by Russia’s aggression, U.S. unpredictability under Trump, and the EU’s quest for strategic autonomy – adds urgency to resolving BiH’s crisis but also complicates the path forward.

Caption: Republika Srpska armed police officers stand guard as a heavy Republika Srpska police presence, including armed officers, block access points to the Republika Srpska Government building in East Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 24 April 2025. Bosnia’s state police (SIPA) officers attempted to serve a court order to President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik on late 23 April 2025 in East Sarajevo, but were blocked by the entity police after a verbal clash and had to leave the scene. [EPA-EFE/HARUN MUMINOVIC]