Former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves: We suffer from normalcy bias

Focus Europe Italy interviewed Toomas Hendrik Ilves, former President of the Republic of Estonia, at the conference “Together for a Federal Europe: Free and United”, organised by the THESEUS Research Centre at the Polytechnic University of Turin, in collaboration with the European Federalist Movement, the European Union of Federalists and Volt Europa, on 9 May to mark Europe Day.

In his speech at the Conference Ilves stressed that for the first time Europe is on its own and cannot rely on the US security guarantee. The EU is confronted with aggressive powers: Russia militarily, China economically and financially, US with tariffs and security threats. We need revolutionary change to ensure a future to Europe and our children. Member states need to abandon self-interest for greater common goods to get competitiveness back.

Ilves stressed the importance to implement the Draghi and Letta Reports, completing the single market for capitals, energy, telecommunication, rethinking competition policy and investments to have EU-scale companies, able to compete with US and China companies. He emphasized the need for a European defence, including joint procurement, industrial cooperation, investment on AI, which is transforming warfare and will define the future. He highlighted the need for EU governance reform, including overcoming unanimity, regulatory simplification, and common debt to finance joint investments, especially on defence and competitiveness.

He reflected on the revolutionary nature of the Schuman Declaration and on the fact that the challenges in 1950 must have looked impossible to handle. And through European integration peace and economic development were guaranteed. Now we know what to do – the Draghi, Letta and Niniisto Reports providing important references – and we must implement it. The alternative is decline and loss of independence.

Ilves stressed that Europeans can be strong united or weak divided and launched a call to action. “Each of us can do something” he said, by acting, voting, helping change to occur. And true to this statement, in the afternoon he participated in a March for Europe, in the streets of Turin centre, promoted by the Movimento Federalista Europeo, the Do Something Committee and Volt Europe together with many NGOs, parties, etc.

What should Europe do to cope with the challenges in front of it?

We are facing a very serious problem, far more serious than the sort of parochial little fights in the Council and the Parliament. They are dealing with sort of secondary issues forgetting that there are really big ones.

We have a profound crisis. We suffer from normalcy bias: we think that the worlds we live in today is forever. Just like people in Vienna in 1913 thought that Austria-Hungary was going to be forever. But it was not. If we don’t bring ourselves up to speed this whole way of life may disappear, and we’ll just all be nostalgic about the way it used to be.

We are caught between a rock and a hard place, between Putin and Trump and Xi Jinping. What else do we need to wake up?

In order to actually face modernity, we need to actually to think of ourselves as a state and that with the rights and the power of a state. Unless we have common borrowing we won’t be able to finance what needs to be done. You just can’t do that without becoming much more of a single entity, that can borrow. And with our economic clout we can borrow at a low rate. Then we need also to unify our capital markets, to get serious investment which we don’t get right now because it’s done only at a national level.

The future defense is not in tanks, it’s in AI and technology. We see this in the war in Ukraine. Why is Ukraine doing better now? Because they are better than the Russians on technology. If we want to compete and defend ourselves against China – or China via Russia, because that’s where their technology comes from – or the attempts of the United States to disrupt here. The United States said in its national security strategy it wants a weak Europe. Trump keeps running into this. When Sanchez says “you can’t use the Spanish bases”, Trump said “I’m going to increase tariffs on Spain”. Then, he realized it doesn’t matter because the European Union in trade act together. So, you get a response from the entire EU. So he can’t do that. Both Putin and Trump want to have a divided Europe, because every country in Europe, even Germany, is a little country compared to the United States or even Russia not to mention China. We have to understand that the powers that don’t like Europe, don’t like our values and see it as a threat. So they are working on disrupting it.

Trump has been bullying the EU, but also Canada. The Europeans answered trying to flatter Trump while Canada answered very strongly. In theory the EU is much stronger than Canada in economic terms and much less vulnerable to the US than Canada. Still Canada had a much tougher answer. Is this because Canada has a federal government and Europe does not?

It is hard to say who’s more vulnerable because Canada doesn’t really have a direct military threat, even if in economic terms they are much more interdependent with the US. But the answer is in part yes. Canada has a prime minister who is the head of the country and who can take decisions and say what he wants. Whereas here we have various competing psychopaths who’s trying to be nicer to Trump. And then you end up being hit anyway. Look at Merz now.

The only person that has clout in Europe today is Pope Leo XIV. The US is afraid of Leo XIV, not of Meloni, von der Leyen, or any other leader. They can insult them as much as they want. But when they insult the Pope then that becomes a real liability.

Who can take the initiative to go towards a European debt, defense and foreign policy you advocate?

It has to be the European Council. But in order to do that, we have to win over more European governments through elections. I’m convinced that this is possible if you have at the national level bold courageous politicians who are willing to say we need to do this and not this sort of parochial leaders. For example, I would say Macron is extremely parochial in this. He always speaks about “Europe”, but actually what he wants is contracts for French companies not for European ones. We saw that when he tried to block the UK from participating in SAFE.

Today we celebrate Europe’s day on the Schuman declaration that was in fact inspired by Jean Monnet who later also created the Action committee for United States of Europe. Now there is a new one trying to gather pro-European figure around Europe. Are you planning to join them? Do you think these are the kind of initiatives that can help bring activists and politicians together to convince public opinion and governments?

I’ll do anything and everything that helps. As this can help, so I will join.

The original interview in Italian by our partner FocusEurope.it can be found here.

Caption: Toomas Hendrik Ilves @ICDS_Talinn