Fico’s dilemma: will Slovakia’s prime minister gamble on early elections?

Slovakia may face a referendum on lifting sanctions against Russia this year, a provocative idea currently under review by President Peter Pellegrini.

Last week, Prime Minister Robert Fico threw his weight behind the initiative, raising eyebrows. Many legal experts question whether such a foreign policy matter, beyond Slovakia’s direct authority, can even be put to a vote. Yet Fico’s enthusiasm hints at a deeper strategy, possibly tied to rumours of early parliamentary elections in 2025.

Leaked reports to Slovak media suggest Fico’s ruling Smer-SD party is snapping up advertising space for next year, a telltale sign of election preparations. While this doesn’t confirm a snap vote, Fico likely won’t commit until he’s confident of retaining power. In the coming months, expect a flurry of government moves to rally his base and hobble the opposition, with the anti-sanctions referendum as a key weapon in his arsenal.

Coalition crises and lingering tensions

Fico, now in his fourth term as prime minister, has governed since day one as if an early election looms. A major coalition crisis erupted late last year when both the Holos party and Andrej Danko, leader of the ultranationalist Slovak National Party (SNS), vied for the vacant speaker post after Pellegrini’s presidential win. Internal defections rocked both parties, costing the coalition its parliamentary majority for the first time.

Fico personally intervened, luring back rebel MPs with government posts. This patched the rift but sowed new discord. The SNS faction, now fractured, leans directly on Fico, leaving Danko a “general without an army.” Danko has turned on Fico, accusing him of broken promises, especially on Russia policy. Despite Fico’s rhetoric about resuming dialogue with Moscow, he hasn’t blocked existing or new EU sanctions.

Tensions also simmer within Holos. New leader and Interior Minister Matus Shutaj Esztok has aligned the party closely with Smer-SD, irking some MPs. Education Minister Tomasz Drucker, seen as a bridge to the president, leads the dissenters. Both parties’ ratings have slumped: SNS polls well below the electoral threshold, with little hope of entering the next parliament, while Holos’ support has nearly halved to just over 8% in two years. Smer-SD, however, holds steady below 20%, a strong second place in national surveys.

This unfolds against a backdrop of anti-government protests raging since December. Every parliamentary vote tests Fico, as corralling coalition MPs to back his initiatives grows harder. A recent tax bill on financial transactions nearly sparked another crisis, bolstering the case for early elections to reshape the coalition – perhaps purging Holos dissenters and swapping SNS for the far-right Republic party. Holos once vowed to shun coalitions with extremists, but shifting tides suggest that stance may soften.

Budget pressures and electoral calculus

Adopting the 2026 state budget poses a stern test. Fico’s government aims to pass it by September, unusually early. The rush has a purpose: Slovak law mandates budget consolidation – slashing spending – if the deficit exceeds monthly targets for two years. Fico’s team has long grappled with fiscal woes, and for the first time, he’s cut social benefits rather than raising them. The 2025 budget included limited cuts, sparing social spending to shield ratings, but public finances remain shaky.

With borrowing options dwindling, the two-year grace period ends in November. Legal budget balancing could batter Fico’s and Smer-SD’s popularity, a compelling argument for early elections. Delay risks a weaker hand in the scheduled 2027 vote, but a snap poll offers no sure win. Even if Smer-SD, Holos, and Republic match current poll numbers, and Holos joins a far-right coalition, their combined votes may fall short of a majority. Fico faces a stark choice: risk power now or face near-certain defeat later.

Referendum as a rallying cry

What could boost Smer-SD’s prospects in six months? The party, despite its “social democracy” label, was ousted from the European Parliament’s Progressive Democrats and Socialists for its rightward drift. Fico courts a conservative, EU-sceptic, Russia-friendly base, aiming to siphon votes from SNS and smaller radical parties. His 9 May Moscow visit signalled this shift, as did a constitutional amendment defining family as a man-woman union, backed by the opposition Christian Democratic Movement—cracking opposition unity.

The anti-sanctions referendum, pushed by the fringe Slovak Renaissance Movement (SHO), fits this playbook. SHO gathered 400,000 signatures – pending verification by the Central Election Commission, which requires 350,000. Pellegrini plans to consult the Constitutional Court, as many argue the issue exceeds Slovakia’s powers. Fico can champion a likely doomed referendum (needing 50% turnout to succeed), reaping benefits without consequences. “How can we prepare massive sanctions against Russia during peace talks?” he asks, signalling EU defiance to his base.

More such moves may follow – perhaps attacks on the opposition, like legal cases against the protest-active Democrats party, or hikes in election deposits (from €17,000 to €59,000) to sideline small players. Raising the electoral threshold (now 5% for parties, 7% for blocs) faces resistance from both opposition and coalition allies. These steps will clarify Fico’s path. For now, coalition partners deny election plans, but the odds of a 2025 vote hinge on Fico’s confidence in turning trends his way.

Edited by g.g.

Caption: Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) Hungary in Budapest, Hungary, 29 May 2025. The two-day Hungarian edition of CPAC is hosted by the Center for Fundamental Rights of Hungary for the fourth consecutive year. [EPA-EFE/Zsolt Szigetvary]