EditFear rules: The Trump clan arrives in the Balkans
High Representative Christian Schmidt faced an impossible choice: defend the Dayton Agreement or risk immediate removal
The Western Balkans – the part of the region still outside the EU – remains Europe’s soft underbelly. The incoming Trump administration appears ready to exploit that vulnerability to weaken the European Union, while U.S. geopolitical interests in the area increasingly overlap with the business ambitions of what critics call the “Trump clan.”
“It is hard to separate American national interests from the greed of the Trump clan. Yet the fact that this greed is so successful also stems from a simple reaction by many players: fear. A recent example from Bosnia and Herzegovina illustrates this perfectly.” This is what Michael Martens, Southeast Europe correspondent for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), wrote on X. Martens explored the issue in greater depth in a FAZ article titled “Fear of the Trump Clan.”
A controversial law passed at lightning speed
In February and March 2026, Bosnia’s parliament fast-tracked a new law that, on the surface, seems harmless but violates European standards of good governance. The legislation creates a legal framework for building a gas pipeline from Croatia into Bosnia. While diversifying Bosnia’s energy supply away from Russian dependence could be beneficial, the real surprise lies elsewhere.
Trump-linked U.S. company advances major gas pipeline and airport deals in Bosnia
A mysterious American company
Unusually, the law does not merely authorize the project – it explicitly names the company that will receive the contract: AAFS Infrastructure and Energy LLC, a previously little-known U.S. firm. Naming a specific contractor directly in legislation bypasses normal competitive tendering procedures and immediately raised suspicions.
Ties to the Trump orbit?
In January 2026, John Ginkel, chargé d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Sarajevo, met with AAFS CEO Joseph Flynn and his deputy Jesse Binnall. Binnall is a lawyer who previously worked for Donald Trump, while Joseph Flynn is the brother of Michael Flynn, Trump’s former National Security Advisor. These connections fueled speculation that AAFS might serve as a vehicle for Trump-family interests.
The suspicions intensified when Donald Trump Jr. visited Bosnia in April 2026 for an investors’ conference and made an unexpected trip to Banja Luka in Republika Srpska, where he criticized the European Union. He was reportedly invited by Igor Dodik, son of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. Many wondered whether the visit was linked to the pipeline project.
Constitutional and Dayton Agreement concerns
Experts argue that the proposed pipeline route crosses state-owned land in several places, yet property ownership disputes in Bosnia remain unresolved. The project could therefore amount to de facto expropriation of state assets, potentially violating Bosnia’s constitution and the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement.
High Representative Christian Schmidt holds broad powers under Dayton and could (some say should) annul the law until these issues are resolved. Schmidt and his predecessors have struck down unconstitutional laws in the past. In April 2022, Schmidt even warned potential investors about the risks of investing in disputed state property. However, Martens wrote his article shortly before Schmidt announced his resignation on 11 May – a move reportedly influenced by U.S. pressure.
Fear as the dominant factor
Transparency International Bosnia’s Srđan Blagovčanin notes that the law appears tailored to serve private interests with strong U.S. political connections rather than the public good. He and others describe a pervasive climate of fear in Sarajevo: local politicians reportedly refuse to oppose Washington, fearing American sanctions. Even U.S. diplomats like Ginkel are said to feel pressure to deliver results or risk being sidelined in the new administration.
The EU responded belatedly with a lukewarm protest letter, while Bosnian leaders show little appetite for confrontation with the United States.
Broader Trump family business footprint in the Balkans
The pattern extends beyond Bosnia. Donald Trump Jr. has shown interest in the region, Jared Kushner pursued real-estate plans in Belgrade, and Kushner and Ivanka Trump bought the Albanian island of Sazan for roughly €1.4 billion with plans to develop a luxury resort.
Martens concludes that the situation leaves High Representative Schmidt in an impossible position: blocking the law could provoke immediate U.S. retaliation and accelerate his removal, while allowing it to stand would undermine his role as guardian of the Dayton Agreement. Bosnian politicians could theoretically challenge the law in the Constitutional Court – but few seem willing to risk angering Washington and its “vindictive little guy” at the top.
Christian Schmidt resigns as High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina
In short, across the non-EU Balkans, business deals intertwined with Trump-family interests are advancing amid a climate of apprehension and strategic calculation. Whether this ultimately serves American national interests, European stability, or simply private gain remains an open – and contentious – question.
Flying to Republika Srpska: Trump Jr. set to deepen the family business with Balkan outcasts
The original analysis in Slovenian by EUalive’s partner Siol.net can be found here.
Caption: US President Donald Trump (R) walks across the South Lawn towards the White House with his son, Donald Trump Jr. (L), after landing in Marine One in Washington, DC, USA, 3 May 2026. President Trump is returning to the White House after spending the weekend at his private club, Mar-a-Lago, in Florida. EPA/Samuel Corum / POOL
Updated: May 14, 2026 - 04:34
