EditExpert envisions TurkStream running on non-Russian gas
It is technically feasible for the EU and NATO countries to phase out Russian gas, according to the former Bulgarian ambassador
The TurkStream pipeline could transport non-Russian gas, said energy analyst and former Bulgarian ambassador to Russia, Iliyan Vassilev, in an interview with EUalive. Vassilev is now a media publisher and commentator. His website Altanalyses.org is a content partner of EUalive.
Vassilev says it is technically feasible for the European Union and NATO countries to phase out Russian gas, as U.S. President Donald Trump recently asked. Declining European gas consumption, coupled with sufficient liquefied natural gas (LNG) and non-Russian sources, makes this possible, he said.
The topic of abandoning Russian fuels gained traction recently. On 11 September U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the EU could halt Russian gas imports within 6 to 12 months by replacing them with American LNG. Wright discussed this strategy with EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen in Brussels last week.
And on 15 September, Trump sent a letter to NATO member states and global leaders, urging a complete cessation of Russian oil purchases.
“I am prepared to impose significant sanctions on Russia once all NATO member states agree to do the same and cease purchasing Russian oil,” Trump wrote.
Addressing market-distorting dumping
Vassilev noted that Europe’s current reliance on Russian gas amounts to 20–30 billion cubic meters annually, a volume that could be replaced by LNG and other alternatives. While not achievable overnight, a long-term strategy could eliminate this dependency. The European Commission supports this approach, proposing to ban subcontracts and phase out long-term contracts by 2027.
“There are ample sources, including LNG and American gas. Europe’s dependence on Russian gas has dropped from over 150 billion cubic meters to 30 billion. The Russian gas entering the EU via TurkStream through Bulgaria is approximately 15–16 billion cubic meters,” Vassilev explained. He added that terminals in Turkey and Greece have sufficient capacity to handle these volumes, with pipelines through Turkey facilitating distribution.
The energy analyst also addressed pricing concerns, noting that Russian gas has historically been sold at a political ptice. The Kremlin now faces the challenge of finding buyers for over 65 billion cubic meters of gas previously sold to Europe, as domestic consumption and foreign markets like China are insufficient.
“In Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Southeastern Europe, pricing is heavily influenced by Russian gas, which is deliberately priced below competitors to maintain market share. This dumping must be addressed by the EU, specifically through the Directorate General for Trade, which tackles market-distorting practices,” Vassilev emphasized.
Vassilev dismissed Moscow’s narrative of redirecting the country’s exports to China as “95% propaganda.”
He highlighted that U.S. LNG, priced at Henry Hub+, could be significantly cheaper than European gas priced at the Dutch TTF exchange. However, large companies exploit the price arbitrage between these markets, particularly in fragmented markets like Southeast Europe, where smaller buyers lack negotiating power. This allows intermediaries to reap excessive profits beyond normal commercial margins.
Why ban raw materials but not derivatives?
Vassilev argued that banning Russian gas on economic, rather than political, grounds is feasible. For instance, Bulgaria could impose additional fees on Russian gas to eliminate its price advantage. Turkey, which benefits from favorable Russian contracts, could increase non-Russian gas supplies to the regional market without conflicting with EU policies.
However, a challenge arises when Russian gas is blended and sold as Turkish gas. While TurkStream carries 100% Russian gas, the Strandja/Malkochlar section between Bulgaria and Turkey increasingly sources gas from Turkey’s Botas system, which may include Russian gas. Vassilev stressed that the EU must enforce controls to ensure gas entering Bulgaria is verifiably non-Russian.
“This mirrors the issue with Russian oil. We ban the raw material but import its derivatives from refineries in Turkey and India, which undercut European refineries. This has led to financial difficulties for some EU refineries, some of them being sold under financial constraint,” Vassilev explained. He emphasized that this problem stems from banning raw materials but not their derivatives, a policy that requires EU-level action and stricter controls at the Bulgarian-Turkish border.
The future of TurkStream
TurkStream extends through Bulgaria as the Balkan Stream, delivering Russian gas to Serbia. Bulgaria doesn’t import Russian gas via TurkStream, but transits large amounts to Serbia and Hungary, under agreements signed before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Vassilev believes Bulgaria could replace the Russian gas it currently transits via TurkStream with gas from alternative sources.
He noted that Gazexport’s low transit tariffs through TurkStream, compared to higher tariffs for Ukraine, could be adjusted to make alternative gas sources viable.
Vassilev also highlighted the broader context of Russia’s war in Ukraine, suggesting that post-war reparations could involve Russia selling raw materials to generate funds. “There are no permanent solutions, only responses to current challenges,” he said.
However, he warned of potential schemes to circumvent EU regulations, where Russian gas could be disguised as non-Russian. “We may believe we’ve diversified, but Russian gas molecules would still flow,” Vassilev cautioned.
Caption: The first delivery of liquefied natural gas after the launch of the Alexandroupolis terminal is to Bulgaria from the French company Total, which supplies gas from Norway. October 3, 2024. BGNES/ GEORGI PASHKULEV
Updated: September 19, 2025 - 11:34
