EditExit poll: Albania’s Edi Rama poised for fourth term
A charismatic yet polarising figure, he has leveraged the Socialist Party party’s organisational strength
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party (SP) is projected to secure a commanding victory in Sunday’s parliamentary election, positioning Rama for an unprecedented fourth term in office.
According to an exit poll conducted by the Albanian Post, the SP is expected to capture 79 seats in the 140-seat parliament, a gain of four seats from the previous legislature, cementing its dominance in Albanian politics. Official results are anticipated within hours, but the forecast signals another chapter in Rama’s decade-long tenure, marked by ambitious reforms, controversial governance, and a fragmented opposition.
Socialist Party’s resounding success
The Albanian Post exit poll, conducted nationwide, estimates the SP garnered 51.8% of the vote, translating into a robust parliamentary majority due to Albania’s district-based seat allocation system. Rama, a charismatic yet polarising figure, has leveraged his party’s organisational strength, economic achievements, and a slick social media campaign to maintain voter loyalty. Since first assuming power in 2013, Rama has overseen Albania’s EU candidacy status, infrastructure modernisation, and tourism growth, though critics accuse him of authoritarian tendencies and failing to curb corruption.
The SP’s projected 79 seats reflect its broad appeal across urban and rural districts, particularly in Tirana and southern Albania. Analysts attribute the party’s success to Rama’s ability to project stability in a region often plagued by political volatility, as well as his strategic outreach to younger voters through digital platforms. “Rama’s campaign was disciplined and forward-looking, emphasizing continuity and EU integration,” said political analyst Blendi Kajsiu. “The opposition, by contrast, struggled to present a unified alternative.”
Opposition struggles amid fragmentation
The main opposition, led by Sali Berisha’s Democratic Party (DP) and its Alliance for Greater Albania, secured 38% of the national vote, translating to 54 parliamentary seats. Berisha, a former prime minister and president, remains a divisive figure, dogged by corruption allegations and a 2023 house arrest order, which limited his campaign’s momentum. The DP’s loss of seats underscores its inability to capitalize on public discontent with Rama’s governance, particularly on issues like unemployment and emigration. Internal rifts, including Berisha’s rivalry with former DP leader Lulzim Basha, further weakened the coalition’s appeal.
Smaller parties faced mixed fortunes. Tom Doshi’s Social Democrats, with 2.2% of the vote, retained their three seats, maintaining a niche presence in northern Albania. Agron Shehaj’s Mundesi Party, despite earning 3.6% nationally, secured only two seats due to its vote concentration in Tirana, highlighting the challenges of Albania’s electoral system for smaller players. Arlind Qorri’s Together Movement, a newcomer advocating progressive reforms, crossed the national threshold to win one seat in Tirana, though Qorri himself failed to secure a parliamentary spot.
Lulzim Basha, who split from the DP to form his own faction, leveraged an aggressive social media campaign to capture 1.4% of the vote but fell short of winning a seat. Meanwhile, the Albania Rises coalition, led by activists Adriatik Lapaj and Endrit Shabani, disappointed with just 1.8% of the vote, failing to secure representation despite earlier polls suggesting stronger support. The coalition’s decline reflects voter skepticism toward its populist rhetoric in a polarised electorate.
Contextualising Rama’s dominance
Albania’s 2025 election unfolds against a backdrop of cautious optimism and persistent challenges. As a NATO member and EU candidate, Albania has sought to align with Western standards, but progress toward EU accession has been slow, hampered by judicial reforms and anti-corruption measures that remain incomplete. Rama has positioned himself as a pro-European reformer, yet his critics, including Berisha, argue that his consolidation of power—through media influence and judicial appointments—threatens democratic norms.
The election also highlights Albania’s fragmented political landscape. The opposition’s inability to unite has allowed Rama to dominate, even as public frustration grows over issues like youth emigration and economic inequality. Albania’s proportional electoral system, with seats allocated by district, further amplifies the SP’s advantage, as its broad voter base translates into disproportionate parliamentary gains.
Social media played a pivotal role in the campaign, with Rama’s SP and Basha’s faction investing heavily in digital outreach to engage Albania’s tech-savvy youth. However, the failure of Albania Rises to convert online buzz into votes suggests that digital campaigns alone cannot overcome entrenched political loyalties.
As official results are tallied, Rama’s projected victory sets the stage for continued Socialist Party dominance, but challenges loom. Advancing EU accession, tackling corruption, and addressing economic disparities will test Rama’s leadership in his fourth term. For the opposition, the election underscores the need for unity and a compelling vision to counter Rama’s grip on power.
Sources: BGNES, Reuters
Caption: Members of the electoral commission count the ballots at a ballot counting facility after the country’s parliamentary elections in Tirana, Albania, 11 May 2025. Around 3.9 million eligible voters from both within the country and the diaspora are set to elect 140 members of Parliament, with incumbent prime minister Edi Rama and his ruling Socialist Party (SP) seeking a fourth term. [EPA-EFE/MALTON DIBRA]
Updated: May 12, 2025 - 07:21
